MED: Tropical Storm 01M/NONAME ("Rolf")

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DanieleItalyRm
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#21 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:40 am

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#22 Postby Hylian Auree » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:47 am

This thing should be very interesting to study. It's obviously acquiring more and more trop characteristics; some sort of classification would be well warranted by now.
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#23 Postby westwind » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:23 pm

This is what ESTOFEX have to say about it.

Latest satellite data reveals a gradually better organized depression in the western Mediterranean. The center is at least partially covered by a central dense overcast feature with strong pulsating cells especially along the northern/eastern part. It still ingests a somewhat more stable/dry air mass from the south with a diminishing trend, so conditions look promising for further organization. Latest ASCAT data indicates a broad and asymmetric wind field with maxima still displaced from the center, which is typical for an organizing subtropical cyclone (in the range of 30-35 kt). Phase diagrams also support that this depression continued to structure its shallow warm core during the past 12 h and indicates further organization for the upcoming 24 h. Using the Hebert Poteat technique and keeping in mind the better organized structre of the main band and deeper/somewhat more persisting DMC along the center, a classification of ST 2.5 would be a reasonable, although probably quite an optimistic guess, given still transientness of the convection ( ST 2.5 represents an intensity of 35-40 kt). It has to be stressed out that no real time surface data is present to support that intensification rating.

Overall model guidance agrees in pushing that feature northwards towards S-France but with a significant cone of uncertainty. Also intensity guidance diverges with some models indicating a gradual weakening trend, whereas WRF-NMM f.ex. has some further strengthening until landfall. Current thinking is that some further organization seems likely, before geopotential heights gradually increase on Tuesday. In any case, there seems to be no direct affect to S-France until 06 Z, despite increasing easterly winds along the coast and stronger downpours in onshore moving bands.
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#24 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:43 pm

Cool animated wind forecast, showing a tightening system becoming smaller and more compact.
http://www.meteo-allerta.it/en/weather/ ... italy.html
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#25 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:58 pm

Is now 99L


Seriously.
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Re:

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2011 12:59 pm

RL3AO wrote:Is now 99L


Seriously.


Is for real!

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#27 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:01 pm

However its not been tagged on ATCF so the NHC had nothing to do with it.
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#28 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:07 pm

Still, this is a step in the right direction and if the NHC decides to jump on board they would certainly have to expand the name lists.
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#29 Postby HenkL » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:11 pm

Winds were below storm strength (35 kt) in the western Mediterranean, both yesterday and today. Estimated pressure of the low has gone up from 1000 to 1005 hPa.
Analyses maps from UKMO, DWD, KNMI all show a baroclinic system.
Yesterday around 15-18Z the center of the system was slowly moving southward over Menorca (LEHM), with wind shifting from WSW to NE. No change in temperatures was measured.

Looking like a (sub)tropical system doesn't mean it has to be one. Occasionally we have had lows with an eye feature over the Netherlands (as well as polar lows of course).
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#30 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:17 pm

Is this the first "L" tagged invest in the Med Sea ever? Just being curious :)
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Re: 99L INVEST Atlan...um, I mean Mediterranean Sea:

#31 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:32 pm

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#32 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:34 pm

I am very sorry that the analysis begins only now that the system is weakening; Previously was much more 'intense convection and in the top cloudsImage
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Re: 99L INVEST Atlan...um, I mean Mediterranean Sea:

#33 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:41 pm

07/1800 UTC 41.1N 5.3E T2.5/2.5 01M -- Mediterranean Sea
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#34 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:42 pm

TXMM21 KNES 071819
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 41.1N

D. 5.3E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
LONG ENOUGH AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FOR A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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#35 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:43 pm

Thats first time ever 01M(No Name)?
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Re: 99L INVEST Atlan...um, I mean Mediterranean Sea:

#36 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:47 pm

Definitely. This is uncharted territory.
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#37 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:50 pm

This is a historical day in tropical meteorology and I am glad to be part of the people witnessing this moment live in a weather forum.

No, seriously, this has to be the first time they use the "M". I'm wondering if they start numbering the invest separately next year (90M, 91M, ...)
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Re:

#38 Postby Hylian Auree » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:51 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:This is a historical day in tropical meteorology and I am glad to be part of the people witnessing this moment live in a weather forum.

100% agreed. Truly awesome!
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Re: 99L INVEST Atlan...um, I mean Mediterranean Sea:

#39 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:51 pm

Just an FYI. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/2011/bulletins/archive.html - they've been doing tests all year, it seems, so they could be ready for this very event.
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Re: 99L INVEST Atlan...um, I mean Mediterranean Sea:

#40 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:03 pm

This being the first system after officially, BUT not be the first tropical system in the Mediterranean Sea.
I am very sorry that the analysis begins only now that the system is weakening; Previously was much more 'intense convection in the center and in the top clouds

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