EPAC: KENNETH - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: KENNETH - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 16, 2011 1:56 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201111161844
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011111618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902011
EP, 90, 2011111618, , BEST, 0, 90N, 913W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112231&hilit=&p=2205618#p2205618
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 16, 2011 2:08 pm

I am reposting from the Talking tropics thread this discussion that Dr Jeff Masters made today about the possible EPAC development and the historic perspective of this so late in this basin.

Both the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans are quiet this week, and we are well past the date for the climatological formation of the season's last storm in both basins, particularly in the Eastern Pacific. A major reason for the lack of late-season activity in the Eastern Pacific is due to the cessation of African waves spawned by the African monsoon, which serve as low pressure "seeds" to get the atmosphere spinning and trigger formation of a tropical cyclone. However, the four top models for predicting formation of tropical storms unanimously agree that a tropical storm will form in the Eastern Pacific early next week, thanks to some unusual wave-like motions in the atmosphere that are generating low pressure systems over the Eastern Pacific, similar to African waves. The GFS model is forecasting that we will get not one, but two tropical storms forming in the Eastern Pacific over the next two weeks. Tropical storms are very rare in the Eastern Pacific this late in the year. Since 1949, here have been just three named storms that have formed after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983. None of these storms hit land, though the 1951 storm grazed the Baja. Next week's storm, if it forms, is expected to move west-northwest, parallel to the Mexican coast, but it is uncertain if it might pose a landfall threat or not.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 16, 2011 6:41 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST WED NOV 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#4 Postby tolakram » Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:44 am

Up to 20%

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171152
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST THU NOV 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE
BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#5 Postby tolakram » Thu Nov 17, 2011 10:46 am

I see some banding starting to take place.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/flash-vis.html
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#6 Postby tolakram » Thu Nov 17, 2011 12:44 pm

Stays at 20%

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171735
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST THU NOV 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE
BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND COOLER
WATERS WILL AFFECT THE LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 17, 2011 12:44 pm

Here are the tropical model plots made at 12z and 18z.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 171219
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1219 UTC THU NOV 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902011) 20111117 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111117  1200   111118  0000   111118  1200   111119  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.1N  94.0W    9.1N  95.5W    9.1N  97.5W    9.4N  99.6W
BAMD     9.1N  94.0W    9.4N  96.3W    9.9N  98.8W   10.3N 101.3W
BAMM     9.1N  94.0W    9.3N  95.6W    9.7N  97.6W   10.2N  99.6W
LBAR     9.1N  94.0W    9.6N  95.9W   10.5N  97.7W   11.4N  99.3W
SHIP        20KTS          22KTS          26KTS          30KTS
DSHP        20KTS          22KTS          26KTS          30KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111119  1200   111120  1200   111121  1200   111122  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.7N 101.7W   10.5N 106.3W   11.1N 111.6W   10.4N 116.5W
BAMD    10.6N 103.6W   11.0N 108.8W   11.9N 114.3W   11.5N 118.5W
BAMM    10.7N 101.5W   11.4N 105.7W   12.5N 111.0W   12.6N 115.5W
LBAR    12.2N 100.6W   13.6N 104.0W   14.4N 108.2W   13.0N 112.3W
SHIP        32KTS          40KTS          43KTS          48KTS
DSHP        32KTS          40KTS          43KTS          48KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.1N LONCUR =  94.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =   9.0N LONM12 =  92.2W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =   9.0N LONM24 =  90.4W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$



Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 171822
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1822 UTC THU NOV 17 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902011) 20111117 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111117  1800   111118  0600   111118  1800   111119  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.2N  94.8W    9.2N  96.5W    9.3N  98.6W    9.6N 100.7W
BAMD     9.2N  94.8W    9.6N  97.0W   10.0N  99.3W   10.3N 101.6W
BAMM     9.2N  94.8W    9.5N  96.5W   10.0N  98.3W   10.6N 100.1W
LBAR     9.2N  94.8W    9.8N  96.5W   10.8N  98.0W   11.5N  99.5W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          29KTS          32KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          29KTS          32KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111119  1800   111120  1800   111121  1800   111122  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.9N 102.7W   10.2N 107.2W   10.1N 112.1W    9.1N 116.6W
BAMD    10.4N 103.8W   10.3N 109.2W    9.7N 115.3W    7.9N 121.9W
BAMM    11.1N 101.9W   11.9N 106.0W   12.3N 110.8W   11.9N 115.5W
LBAR    12.3N 100.8W   13.4N 105.0W   13.0N 108.8W   11.5N 113.1W
SHIP        35KTS          42KTS          51KTS          60KTS
DSHP        35KTS          42KTS          51KTS          60KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.2N LONCUR =  94.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =   9.1N LONM12 =  93.1W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =   9.0N LONM24 =  91.3W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#8 Postby MGC » Thu Nov 17, 2011 5:59 pm

Looks like a fairly well established MCL....I think the chances are incresing that 90E becomes a TC....MGC
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:32 pm

Up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST THU NOV 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:54 am

Up to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST FRI NOV 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:08 am

It continues to organize in a good pace.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2011 10:31 am

From 16:05 UTC discussion.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
9N96W MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ALONG THE MAIN
BAND DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME COOLER
SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

Here is the cool area of ssts that they mention.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#13 Postby MGC » Fri Nov 18, 2011 10:58 am

90E looks to be slowly organizing this morning. Should really crank up once the system gets beyond the cool water....MGC
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:46 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PHNC 182030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 96.1W TO 10.8N 104.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 182000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 96.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
96.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 96.5W, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH OF
SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME FORMATIVE BANDING. A 181429Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND AND INTO THE LLCC. A 181525Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC IS UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES WEST OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTER. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 05-10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 27-28
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192030Z.//

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:48 pm

Up to 50%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST FRI NOV 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#16 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 19, 2011 6:45 am

70%

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2011 11:09 am

It almost looks like a TD and it may get that classification later this afternoon or evening unless it falls apart in the next few hours.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#18 Postby MGC » Sat Nov 19, 2011 12:39 pm

Getting close....should be a TC soon....MGC
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2011 1:00 pm

Up to 80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SAT NOV 19 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT YET CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 19, 2011 2:26 pm

It will be TD13-E at 2 PM PST.

EP, 13, 2011111918, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1005W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 191921
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1921 UTC SAT NOV 19 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE THIRTEEN (EP132011) 20111119 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111119  1800   111120  0600   111120  1800   111121  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.8N 100.5W   10.3N 102.8W   10.8N 105.3W   11.2N 107.6W
BAMD     9.8N 100.5W   10.2N 102.7W   10.6N 105.2W   11.0N 107.7W
BAMM     9.8N 100.5W   10.2N 102.6W   10.7N 105.0W   11.1N 107.5W
LBAR     9.8N 100.5W   10.4N 102.4W   11.1N 104.9W   11.7N 107.6W
SHIP        30KTS          34KTS          40KTS          49KTS
DSHP        30KTS          34KTS          40KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111121  1800   111122  1800   111123  1800   111124  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.4N 109.7W   11.5N 114.0W   12.7N 118.7W   14.9N 123.1W
BAMD    11.3N 110.1W   10.6N 114.8W    9.7N 119.3W    9.5N 123.0W
BAMM    11.4N 109.8W   11.0N 114.4W   10.9N 118.9W   11.4N 122.5W
LBAR    12.6N 110.4W   12.2N 115.7W   11.2N 119.6W   12.6N 122.7W
SHIP        59KTS          72KTS          69KTS          58KTS
DSHP        59KTS          72KTS          69KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.8N LONCUR = 100.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =   9.4N LONM12 =  98.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =   9.2N LONM24 =  97.3W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  210NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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