EPAC: KENNETH - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#101 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:49 am

Yep
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 220840
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...KENNETH RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 112.8W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST. KENNETH IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KENNETH IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE TODAY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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#102 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:52 am

wow :eek:
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Hurricane

#103 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 22, 2011 5:41 am

History has been made:

THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 110 KT...AND THAT
COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. THIS MAKES KENNETH A MAJOR HURRICANE...THE
LATEST ONE TO HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE
SATELLITE ERA.

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#104 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Nov 22, 2011 5:46 am

Category 5... Maybe possible.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Hurricane

#105 Postby bg1 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 7:52 am

Dvorak shows a large ring of white (-70 C I think):
[IMG=http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/3638/bdlr.jpg][/IMG]

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ADT estimates:

Code: Select all

 UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  22 NOV 2011    Time :   120000 UTC
      Lat :   12:44:40 N     Lon :  113:21:26 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.3 / 945.7mb/[b]122.2kt[/b]

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.3     6.4     6.4


122.2 knots now?! That's...
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#106 Postby Frank2 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 8:45 am

"Never say never"...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/avn-l.jpg

as others said, historic for a major hurricane to form in that area this late in the season...

Frank
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#107 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Nov 22, 2011 9:39 am

Here's a cool first visible shot:

Image

Check out the eyewall. Absolutely beautiful.
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#108 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Nov 22, 2011 9:40 am

Here is the IR to compare:

Image
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Major Hurricane

#109 Postby Cranica » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:03 am

Kenneth is like the sixth storm this year in the EPAC with that exact same annular-except-not structure with the huge eye, perfectly circular CDO, but with banding. I wonder if this has something to do with the apparently extraordinarily favorable conditions.
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#110 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:17 am

145 mph category four, applause for Kenneth!


BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...KENNETH STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...STRONGEST LATE
SEASON EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 113.9W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE KENNETH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. KENNETH IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KENNETH IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN



HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. A SYMMETRIC RING OF
EYEWALL -70 TO -75C CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAS DEVELOPED AROUND A
CLOUD-FREE EYE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED TO T6.5 SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AS KENNETH
HAS MORE THAN LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. AFTERWARD...WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY FASTER THAN FORECAST BEYOND THE 36 HR
PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIABLE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE LEFT OF DUE WEST...265/11.
KENNETH IS MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A SERIES OF MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD
ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN 2 DAYS. NEAR DAY 4...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD INFLUENCE A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON THE HWRF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 12.7N 113.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 12.9N 115.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 13.3N 117.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 13.9N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 14.4N 120.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 15.1N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 15.5N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
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#111 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:23 am

INCREDIBLE. This is like a Cat 4 in the Atlantic in mid-December.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Major Hurricane

#112 Postby Blown Away » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:23 am

Wow, what a beauty!
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#113 Postby Hurricane Jed » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:33 am

Just woke up and saw Kenneth is a Category 4 hurricane. Hahahaha spectacular! I don't know if I have ever seen a more impressive and beautiful November hurricane since I became interested in tropical weather in 1998.
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#114 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:35 am

Lol, he's actually as strong as (if not stronger than) the most intense storm of this year's La Nina Atlantic season.
Kenneth: 145 mph - 943 mbar
Ophelia: 140 mph - 940 mbar
Katia: 135 mph - 946 mbar

Same thing happened last year with unusually early Cat 5 cane Celia.
She beat every storm in the Atlantic although her basin was unfavorable and she formed veery early in the season.
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#115 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:38 am

This has to be a record for most EPAC majors in a non-El Nino year. Will we see the impossible in December?
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Major Hurricane

#116 Postby Macrocane » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:39 am

I always wondered why the EPAC season didn't end on November 15 if it begins on May 15, Kenneth has answered my question :wink:
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#117 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:39 am

One other thing I believe is that the EPAC has now had a major in 6 consecutive months.
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Re:

#118 Postby Hurricane Jed » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:43 am

CrazyC83 wrote:One other thing I believe is that the EPAC has now had a major in 6 consecutive months.


wow you're right! Adrian in June, Dora in July, Eugene in August, Hilary in September, Jova in October and now Kenneth in November. I think that is a record.
Last edited by Hurricane Jed on Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#119 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:45 am

2011NOV22 153000 6.6 935.7/ +3.5 /129.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 15.04 -68.34 EYE 24 IR 12.66 113.81 COMBO

ADT supports 130 kt per SAB.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Major Hurricane

#120 Postby MGC » Tue Nov 22, 2011 11:27 am

Beautiful hurricane....all Kenneth needs to do is contract that eye a bit and make a run at Cat-5. You can do it Kenneth!.....MGC
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