EPAC: KENNETH - Post-Tropical

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#41 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:44 pm

The intensity might even be a bit conservative...
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby Fyzn94 » Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:55 pm

What we've got here is the textbook definition of a late-bloomer.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Nov 20, 2011 10:16 pm

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Well...Kenneth is well on his way to becoming a hurricane. The inner core is pulling together well, convection is increasing, and environmental conditions appear to be primed. With it being late in the season, one shouldn't be concerned with rapid intensification, right? You'd think...but looking at the latest from CIMSS, there does appear to be a hook forming over the last few hours (last few hours being between 2200 and 0145 UTC). I really don't want to say rapid intensification is going to occur...but given the situation, and this season in the EPac, it very well may. At any rate, I am going to go on the low side and say 25 to 35 knot jump in the next 24 hours.

Going off the 0300 UTC intensity (45 knots), that puts us at 70 to 80 knots before or by 0300 UTC tomorrow evening.

Pros: Warm SST's, good moist envelope on water vapor, low shear forecast, rapidly forming inner core, convection increasing around and over the center

Cons: Guidance pretty much forecasting a slow/steady increase in intensity...nothing dramatic that I've seen, late in the season, not sure if the increase in intensity will reach the RI threshold (30 knots in 24 hours) which is why the lower end is set at 25 knots.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Nov 20, 2011 10:46 pm

I think the big question is whether it will become a major hurricane and break Sergio's record in 2006 for strongest November hurricane. That storm peaked with 95 kt winds.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 21, 2011 5:31 am

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH HAS
SHARPLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...INCLUDING THE BRIEF
APPEARANCE OF A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE MOST
RECENT 2-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ALSO T3.5/55 KT.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12 KT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY STABILIZED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS
AND MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE KENNETH HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WESTWARD
DURING THE PAST 9 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BASICALLY
INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE EXPECTED IN 72-84 HOURS WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE ALONG 120W LONGITUDE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LONG FETCH OF VERY FAST WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS TYPE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERNS FAVORS
TROUGHS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD RATHER THAN DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE LATEST 00Z GFS RUN HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON WEAKENING THE RIDGE
AND ALLOWING KENNETH TO RECURVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RECURVING KENNETH...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SCENARIO
SINCE ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE GFDL AND HFIP MODELS...
KEEP KENNETH AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER TYPE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE HWRF-BIASED CONSENSUS
MODELS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 72 HOURS.

KENNETH HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THIS
TREND COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS GIVEN THE LOW VERTICAL
SHEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS WRAPPED INTO THE INNER
CORE...AND THIS DRY AIR COULD BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE STRENGTHENING
PROCESS. REGARDLESS OF THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR...KENNETH IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR AND MOIST
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...COOLER WATER
BENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BY DAYS 4
AND 5 SHOULD INDUCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND THE MORE ROBUST HWRF/GFDL MODELS.

THE 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED
ON REPORTS FROM SHIP LAXS2 LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 12.3N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 12.6N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 12.8N 112.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 12.8N 114.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 13.0N 116.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 14.3N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 15.2N 123.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 15.9N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#46 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:01 am

Yes, I would like "Eye feature on IR" for $500, please.

Also, I would like "Indicator of RI appearing" for $200, Alex. Winds should jump again within about 5 to 6 hours...or by 1 pm to 3 pm EST.

CAUTION: This post may or may not contain sound data, or may just be a random early morning, my brain is still 3/4s asleep, post. Use at your own discretion.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:12 am

CIMSS just updated:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 NOV 2011 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 12:25:22 N Lon : 109:04:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 995.7mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 4.0 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -26.0C Cloud Region Temp : -65.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 80km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.3 degrees

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt13E.html
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby Macrocane » Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:18 am

Looks like a hurricane to me, not the best looking one though but it's becoming better organized by the hour.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:22 am

brunota2003 wrote:
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Well...Kenneth is well on his way to becoming a hurricane. The inner core is pulling together well, convection is increasing, and environmental conditions appear to be primed. With it being late in the season, one shouldn't be concerned with rapid intensification, right? You'd think...but looking at the latest from CIMSS, there does appear to be a hook forming over the last few hours (last few hours being between 2200 and 0145 UTC). I really don't want to say rapid intensification is going to occur...but given the situation, and this season in the EPac, it very well may. At any rate, I am going to go on the low side and say 25 to 35 knot jump in the next 24 hours.

Going off the 0300 UTC intensity (45 knots), that puts us at 70 to 80 knots before or by 0300 UTC tomorrow evening.

Pros: Warm SST's, good moist envelope on water vapor, low shear forecast, rapidly forming inner core, convection increasing around and over the center

Cons: Guidance pretty much forecasting a slow/steady increase in intensity...nothing dramatic that I've seen, late in the season, not sure if the increase in intensity will reach the RI threshold (30 knots in 24 hours) which is why the lower end is set at 25 knots.

CIMSS MIMIC just updated.

Going off the latest data, I would like to revise my forecast upwards.

A strong signature appeared at roughly 10 UTC (4 am EST). The most major jump in winds should start to occur within the next couple hours, as the 6 hour "warning" started around 4 am EST. So by 11 am to 1 pm or so, everything should smooth back out and a well defined eye may appear later this afternoon. By 0300 UTC (10 pm EST), I could see winds being in the 90 to 100 knot range (or maybe even higher, up to 110 knots), as long as dry air does not interfere.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby tolakram » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:49 am

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 211439
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED COILED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT
A RAGGED EYE IS FORMING...AND A 1141 UTC SSMIS SHOWS A NEARLY
LOW-LEVEL CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A
CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE HAS FURTHER INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 285/12. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE TRACK OF KENNETH BENDING MORE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. IN 2-3 DAYS...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GREATER POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD THEN RE-STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH/VERTICAL
DEPTH OF KENNETH BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGER
CYCLONE AND THE ECMWF DEPICTING A WEAKER VERSION. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
THEN ADJUSTED A BIT SOUTHWARD...CONTINUING TO WEIGH THE ECMWF MORE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH KENNETH HAS ALREADY EXITED THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE
BASIN...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BARRING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OR
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INNER CORE...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO.
SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD
COMMENCE AFTER THIS TIME AS THE WATERS GRADUALLY COOL ALONG ITS
PATH. A FASTER WEAKENING...PERHAPS MORE THAN INDICATED HERE...IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD ONCE KENNETH REACHES WATERS OF 25-26C
AND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL/FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72
HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT AFTER THAT.

SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE
LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN
SATELLITE ERA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 12.7N 109.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 12.9N 111.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 13.0N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 13.4N 117.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 14.4N 120.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 15.2N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 15.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#51 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 10:01 am

The insanity continues...in a La Nina year??? This is the kind of thing you would expect there in a strong El Nino if anything. Any chance of a recurve being so late in the year?
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Hurricane

#52 Postby MGC » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:03 am

Wow...who would have thought a potential major hurricane for Thanksgiving week....I can't recall this....MGC
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Re:

#53 Postby bg1 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:07 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The insanity continues...in a La Nina year??? This is the kind of thing you would expect there in a strong El Nino if anything. Any chance of a recurve being so late in the year?


My thoughts exactly.

NHC Discussion wrote:SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE
LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN
SATELLITE ERA.


Of course. This turn of events sort of reminds me of a football team already up 56-27 with 2 minutes left, and yet going for another touchdown. (The score reflects the quality of storms.)
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#54 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:55 am

Kenneth going for two titles here. Strongest November hurricane and latest major hurricane in the EPAC
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Hurricane

#55 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:01 pm

SSTs in Kenneth's path are actually about 1C warmer than normal. The cool La Nina SSTs are well west and south of Kenneth.
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#56 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:37 pm

And as that convection fires from the NW quad and wraps around the eye, that should pretty much seal the deal for Kenneth.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Hurricane

#57 Postby bg1 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:SSTs in Kenneth's path are actually about 1C warmer than normal. The cool La Nina SSTs are well west and south of Kenneth.


So, normally, during a La Nina, the cooler waters expand farther north? Or does it usually have an effect on wind shear, instability, etc.? It seems like La Nina didn't have much of an effect on the Pacific except for the lower number of storms.
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Hurricane

#58 Postby bg1 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:42 pm

For a Pacific storm, this is exciting! Of course, that could just be because it is on its way to becoming a record storm.

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#59 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:51 pm

From a stand point of RI...it is still extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly how strong a system is going to get. In my case, if I know RI is going to occur...then I know the winds are going to increase at least 30 knots in 24 hours...but many storms increase much more than that. My 90 to 100 knots by 0300 UTC seems to be too low, if Kenneth keeps wrapping up...but I did mention possibly up to 110 knots, which I feel is the upper limit for this time period (9 hours remaining).
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Re: EPAC: KENNETH - Hurricane

#60 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:13 pm

18z Best Track ups intensity to 75kts.

EP, 13, 2011112118, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1101W, 75, 982, HU
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