ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1 Postby tolakram » Wed Nov 30, 2011 7:43 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011113012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011112912, , BEST, 0, 189N, 597W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011112918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 593W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113000, , BEST, 0, 210N, 590W, 30, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113006, , BEST, 0, 221N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113012, , BEST, 0, 231N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 325, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2 Postby tolakram » Wed Nov 30, 2011 7:45 am

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF NEAR
GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND
SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED...SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT AROUND
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
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#3 Postby TheEuropean » Wed Nov 30, 2011 8:43 am

And here is the link to the discussion in Talkin Tropics:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112280
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#4 Postby tolakram » Wed Nov 30, 2011 8:47 am

If you look at the MIMIC-TPW loop: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

There's almost nothing there at the moment, in my opinion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#5 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 30, 2011 9:10 am

I can see a developing low center near 24N/59.5W. It'll begin accelerating northward today, passing east of Bermuda tomorrow then racing off to the NNE as it merges with the approaching cold front. Hopefully, the NHC doesn't call it an STS before then. Let the season end...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#6 Postby TheEuropean » Wed Nov 30, 2011 11:41 am

NRL with 35 kt, 1004 mb

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#7 Postby MGC » Wed Nov 30, 2011 12:06 pm

Let the season end? Blasphemy! Love them late season storms...bring it on! Anyway, I know you pro mets are tired and want to put the season to bed and forecast a big winter storm along the gulf coast. 90L does look a bit better organized today but I doubt it developes....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#8 Postby tolakram » Wed Nov 30, 2011 1:20 pm

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#9 Postby MGC » Wed Nov 30, 2011 6:15 pm

90L looks like the last invest with a front attached to the low.....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#10 Postby tolakram » Thu Dec 01, 2011 1:07 pm

Watching the floater on this. Water temps should be too cold, but it does look a bit tropical.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#11 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 1:47 pm

Yes, it appears to have merged with the cold front. 2011 season is over.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#12 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Dec 01, 2011 3:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:Yes, it appears to have merged with the cold front. 2011 season is over.


Officially it's over, but in deed it's over on Dec. 31st, isn't it?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#13 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 01, 2011 3:39 pm

TheEuropean wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Yes, it appears to have merged with the cold front. 2011 season is over.


Officially it's over, but in deed it's over on Dec. 31st, isn't it?


Tropical, or more likely subtropical, storms can form in any month. Though it is true that we cannot have any additional 2011 storms after Dec. 31st.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#14 Postby tolakram » Fri Dec 02, 2011 7:22 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201112021209
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


So long, thanks for all the fish.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#15 Postby tolakram » Mon Dec 05, 2011 7:46 am

Floater still on something, now spinning back into the picture.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I'm not suggesting any development, just noticing the floater is still on this area. Odd.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#16 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Dec 05, 2011 11:18 am

Nothing on NRL. On the larger satellite loop - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-avn.html - you can see it moving southward (and how small it is!)
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Dec 05, 2011 12:13 pm

Image

very non-tropical
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#18 Postby tolakram » Mon Dec 05, 2011 1:02 pm

I think someone just forgot to turn the floater off and it's a coincidence this winter low is meandering in the area. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 05, 2011 1:13 pm

tolakram wrote:I think someone just forgot to turn the floater off and it's a coincidence this winter low is meandering in the area. :)


That is what I am also thinking of why they still have it. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 06, 2011 9:10 am

Finnally,someone pulled the plug. :)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
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