WPAC: JMA: Tropical Depression - JTWC -26W

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WPAC: JMA: Tropical Depression - JTWC -26W

#1 Postby francis327 » Sat Dec 10, 2011 11:13 am

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has put out a TCFA for Invest 94W which is approximately 400km west to Philipines.

ALERT ATCF MIL 94X XXX 111210060000
2011121006
12.4 116.6
8.8 112.1
150
11.8 116.1
100900
1112100851
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 100900
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 116.6E TO 8.8N 112.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100830Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 116.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 110900Z.
//
9411120818 123N1184E 15
9411120900 126N1179E 15
9411120906 127N1175E 15
9411120912 126N1171E 15
9411120918 124N1167E 15
9411121000 116N1164E 15
9411121006 118N1161E 20
NNNN


WTPN21 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 116.6E TO 8.8N 112.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
AT 100830Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
116.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
116.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 116.1E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTH
OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
QUADRANTS. A 100501Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LLCC IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF A STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE
EVENT WITH 20-30 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT INDICATES SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-30 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODELS SUPPORT WEAK DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110900Z.//
NNNN


TPPN10 PGTW 101515

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (NW PALAWAN)

B. 10/1430Z

C. 10.8N

D. 115.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0923Z 11.6N 115.8E SSMS
10/1239Z 10.5N 115.6E SSMS


UEHARA



TCFA Graphic by JTWC
Image

Satelite Image
Image
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Dec 12, 2011 5:39 am, edited 3 times in total.
Reason: To edite title
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#2 Postby francis327 » Sat Dec 10, 2011 11:16 am

JMA has this issued as well

Code: Select all

TD
Issued at 16:10 UTC, 10 December 2011

<Analyses at 10/15 UTC>
Scale   -
Intensity   -
TD
Center position   N11°25'(11.4°)
E115°35'(115.6°)
Direction and speed of movement   W Slowly
Central pressure   1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 11/15 UTC>
Intensity   -
Center position of probability circle   N10°55'(10.9°)
E113°40'(113.7°)
Direction and speed of movement   W Slowly
Central pressure   1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle   220km(120NM)


Forecast Map by JMA
Image
Last edited by francis327 on Sat Dec 10, 2011 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby francis327 » Sat Dec 10, 2011 11:37 am

Tropical Depression Warning by the Vietnam Meterological Agency
Image

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNING
Local time (GMT+7):19
Date:Saturday, December 10
Position: 11.5 115.6
Classification: TD
Maximum sustained wind:56 km/hour

Local time (GMT+7):19
Date:Saturday, December 11
Position: 10.8 113.9
Classification: TD
Maximum sustained wind:65 km/hour

Infra Red Satelite Imaginary
Image
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#4 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 10, 2011 12:25 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 11.4N 115.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 10.9N 113.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Rather sudden late-season TD...
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Re:

#5 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 10, 2011 12:26 pm



Just to note, that's their forecast map. "Models" are very different things totally.
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Re: Re:

#6 Postby francis327 » Sat Dec 10, 2011 1:13 pm

Chacor wrote:


Just to note, that's their forecast map. "Models" are very different things totally.


Thanks Chacor, newbies here.. I will made the changes. Thanks again
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#7 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 10, 2011 1:58 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 10.6N 115.6E FAIR
MOVE SSW 06KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 10.2N 113.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: JMA: 94W - Tropical Depression - JTWC TCFA

#8 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Dec 10, 2011 8:56 pm

This storm is really being bombarded by shear, wasn't much of anything to start with and won't be anything in the near future. Great
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 11, 2011 5:13 pm

Image

Latest infrared
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 11, 2011 5:14 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
115.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 115.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH
OF BRUNEI. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPOSED AND STRETCHED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO
ASSOICATED DEEP CONVECTION, A NEW ASCAT IMAGE (111323Z) REVEALS A
WELL-DEVELOPED FIELD OF SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS IN THE VICINITY INDICATE 2-3 MB 24
HR PRESSURE FALLS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS REVEAL THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS MANAGED TO REMAIN INSULATED FROM THE VIGOROUS COLD SURGE
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE
FALLING. CURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
NORTHEASTERLIES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE COUPLING WITH
A WEST WIND BURST ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE TO SUSTAIN THE
CIRCULATION. THE ENHANCED WESTERLIES ARE DRIVEN BY A MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION (MJO) EVENT. AS THE COLD SURGE EASES AND THE MJO
TRAVERSES DOWNSTREAM, THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE MUCH OF ITS SPIN, BUT
SUSTAINED REDUCTION IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SHORT TERM MAY
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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#11 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 11, 2011 6:48 pm

18z
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 10N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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Re: WPAC: JMA: 94W - Tropical Depression - JTWC TCFA

#12 Postby wxman57 » Sun Dec 11, 2011 9:09 pm

The TCFA was cancelled last night at 5Z:

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 Cancelled
Issued at 11/0500Z

Nothing there. 30-40 kts shear, 25-35 kt NE monsoon bringing in cooler/drier air. No chance of development.
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#13 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 11, 2011 10:23 pm

00z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 115E WEST SLOWLY.
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#14 Postby francis327 » Mon Dec 12, 2011 12:01 am

Satelite image from MMD at 0330 UTC

Image

Information from MMD

Code: Select all

Name : Tropical Depression

Time of Observation : 08:00 am, 12 December 2011

Location : Latitude 10.0 North and Longitude 115.0 East, approximately 389 km
North-Northwest of Kudat, Sabah.

Movement: Almost Stationary.

Distant from nearest town: Approximately 467 km North Northwest of Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.

Threat to Malaysia: This condition may cause thunderstorm activities and strong winds over South China Sea, coastal areas of West Coast of Sabah (Kudat, West Coast and Interior), Labuan FT. and Sarawak.
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#15 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Dec 12, 2011 1:49 am

TCFA re-issued by JTWC...
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#16 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Dec 12, 2011 2:58 am

judging on NRLMRY, it looks like this maybe upgraded into 26W by 9z...
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Re: WPAC: JMA: 94W - Tropical Depression - JTWC TCFA

#17 Postby francis327 » Mon Dec 12, 2011 4:24 am

It has been upgraded to 26W

Code: Select all

wtpn31 pgtw 120900
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
ref/a/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/120451z Dec 11//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert//
rmks/
1. Tropical depression 26w (twentysix) warning nr 001
   01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   120600z --- near 9.4n 113.6e
     movement past six hours - 250 degrees at 08 kts
     position accurate to within 060 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 025 kt, gusts 035 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   repeat posit: 9.4n 113.6e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   121800z --- 9.3n 112.0e
   Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   vector to 24 hr posit: 265 deg/ 10 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   130600z --- 9.2n 110.0e
   Max sustained winds - 030 kt, gusts 040 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   vector to 36 hr posit: 265 deg/ 10 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   131800z --- 9.1n 108.0e
   Max sustained winds - 025 kt, gusts 035 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water
   vector to 48 hr posit: 250 deg/ 10 kts
    ---
   extended outlook:
   48 hrs, valid at:
   140600z --- 8.5n 106.1e
   Max sustained winds - 020 kt, gusts 030 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over water
    ---
remarks:
120900z position near 9.4n 113.2e.
Tropical depression (td) 26w, located approximately 415 nm east of
Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam, has tracked west-southwestward at 08
knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery depicts a well-defined low-level circulation center (LLCC)
with curved convective banding over the western semi-Circle. A
120447z trmm 37v image indicates that the system has consolidated
over the past 12 hours with improved convective banding wrapping
into a defined center. The system is located along the southeastern
edge of a strong northeast monsoon surge and has struggled to
develop, however, a 12/06z ship report at 6.5n 113.2e, 180nm south,
reported 300/22 knots while a 12/00z ship report at 9.4n 113.6e
indicated 140/24 knots with slp near 1004mb. Additionally, easterly
vertical wind shear has decreased to 10-20 knots allowing deep
convection to build over the LLCC. The current intensity is assessed
at 25 knots based on the ship observations and Dvorak estimates of
25 knots from pgtw. The current position is based on the
aforementioned trmm image with good confidence. TD 26w is tracking
along the southern periphery of the low-level subtropical ridge and
is forecast to turn more west-southwestward after tau 24. Model
guidance is limited to NOGAPS, GFS, ukmo and WBAR and is in poor
agreement with a 465 nm spread at tau 48. WBAR tracks the system
northwestward into the northeast surge while GFS turns the system
sharply southward toward singapore. The official forecast is
positioned close to the model consensus but slightly faster and
favors the NOGAPS solution. This warning supersedes and cancels ref
a, navmarfcstcen 120451z Dec 11 tropical cyclone formation alert


Forecasted track by JTWC
Image
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Re: WPAC: JMA: 94W - Tropical Depression - JTWC TCFA

#18 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 12, 2011 4:35 am

TXPQ22 KNES 120909
TCSWNP

A. 26W (NONAME)

B. 12/0830Z

C. 9.1N

D. 113.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...4 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET
AND PT ARE 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NEWHARD

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.6 /1006.0mb/ 26.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.6 1.7 3.2

26th Tropical Cyclone of the 2011 Typhoon Season by JTWC
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#19 Postby francis327 » Mon Dec 12, 2011 4:40 am

JMA has it as a Tropical Depression

12 Dec 0600UTC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 113E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 44N 118E EAST 15 KT.

Looking forward for an update on 1200UTC as 26W
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Re: WPAC: JMA: Tropical Depression - JTWC -26W

#20 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Dec 12, 2011 5:45 am

I just made this video on the storm, hope this gives some information here..

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1sljpQ0Px0[/youtube]
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