WPAC: JMA: Tropical Depression - JTWC -26W

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Chacor
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#21 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 12, 2011 7:30 am

francis327 wrote:JMA has it as a Tropical Depression

12 Dec 0600UTC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 113E WEST SLOWLY.

Looking forward for an update on 1200UTC as 26W


26W is the number JTWC has assigned this cyclone. It is an unofficial number; the JMA are the official warning centre for the Western North Pacific. That's why you'll get, on occasion, a numbered tropical storm from JTWC that hasn't been named. There won't be "an update ... as 26W" from the JMA.
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#22 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 12, 2011 8:30 am

JMA has reissued a tropical cyclone bulletin, once again calling for strengthening to a named storm within 24 hours...

WTPQ20 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 09.6N 112.7E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 09.1N 110.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: JMA: Tropical Depression - JTWC -26W

#23 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 12, 2011 3:54 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 9.6N 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 111.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 9.3N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 8.7N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 7.7N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 111.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
121730Z PGTW POSITION FIX AND PERSISTENCE, AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY CLOUD COVER. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS BEEN ENHANCING THE CIRCULATION ALONG
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, OBSERVATIONS ON THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE INDICATE THE LLCC HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1004 MB WITH
WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN A WESTERN TRACK
(NGPS, EGRR) AND A SOUTHWESTERN TRACK (GFS, JGSM) WITH THIS FORECAST
PREFERRING THE FORMER WITH A SMALL TURN SOUTH AROUND TAU 36. THIS
TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES TD 26W WILL PERSIST AT A WEAK TD LEVEL
THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND SOME ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH-
EASTERLY COLD SURGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z,
130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
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#24 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 12, 2011 9:04 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 09.3N 112.6E POOR
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 08.3N 110.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: JMA: Tropical Depression - JTWC -26W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 13, 2011 12:00 am

WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 9.0N 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 111.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 8.4N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 7.9N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 111.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
//
NNNN

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE POSITION HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON
NEW ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK CI VALUES OF 1.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND LOCAL
SURFACE PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING ABOUT 1004 MB, WHICH ROUGHLY
EQUATES TO A 25 KNOT SYSTEM THROUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND PRESSURE
RELATIONSHIPS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TURNED TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL, EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE DRY,
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAVE BEEN DETRIMENTAL TO THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF TD 26W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TD 26W REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD 26W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS STARTED TO TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
IT HAS COME UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF TD 26W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
INCREASING AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY, INDICATING A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND DISSIPATION BELOW THE 25 KNOT WARNING
THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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#26 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 13, 2011 7:12 am

6z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 08N 111E SW SLOWLY.
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#27 Postby francis327 » Tue Dec 13, 2011 11:46 pm

26W is dissipating in the South China Sea...
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