WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:23 pm

JMA latest warning.

TD
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 13 December 2011
<Analyses at 13/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N5°55'(5.9°)
E141°40'(141.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 14/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N6°35'(6.6°)
E139°00'(139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°25'(7.4°)
E136°00'(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

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#22 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:42 pm

Image

exposed
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#23 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:55 pm

It's not surprising that it's a little disorganized as it is moving westward at close to 20 kts. It'll have to slow down to gather itself together.
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#24 Postby phwxenthusiast » Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:43 pm

fully exposed at that

Image

tbh, i'm kinda skeptical about JTWC's forecast regarding intensification.. but as wxman said, it has to slow down to consolidate better, question is when??
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#25 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:35 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 05.7N 140.6E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 07.5N 135.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:42 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272011
1100 AM CHST WED DEC 14 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS PALAU...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND NGULU IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS...
BETWEEN 39 AND 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 140.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
270 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL AND
435 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH. 27W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE
CENTER OF 27W VERY CLOSE TO KOROR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM POSITION...5.9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
140.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER AT 2 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 PM.

$$

EDSON/ZIOBRO
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#27 Postby Crostorm » Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:37 pm

Its coming back

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#28 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:10 am

JTWC upgraded it into a Tropical Storm. JMA says a TS to form within the next 12 hours.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#29 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:23 am

Latest from JTWC

WTPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 6.2N 139.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2N 139.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 6.7N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 7.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 8.0N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 8.9N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.6N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.6N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.5N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 6.3N 138.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS REFORMED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED IN TRACK
SPEED, THEREFORE, ALLOWING FOR THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR TO EASE. A
140636Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ORGANIZED
TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH MULTIPLE, WEAKER RAINBANDS TO THE
SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMI IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW/KNES RESPECTIVELY.
RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 27W IS APPROXIMATELY
06 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED, BUT
WEAKENING, POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A FILLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE OUTFLOW
INTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SOURCE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. TS 27W CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS BY THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO
SO OVER THE NEXT 12-HOURS. BY TAU 24, TS 27W SHOULD BEGIN TO STEER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STR CAUSED BY THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE AREA.
TS 27W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE STR AXIS AND MAINTAINS POLEWARD VENTING. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REACH MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 48 AND THEN
BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BY TAU 72. DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FROM TAU 96-120, TS 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON
A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA DUE TO A FORECASTED SURGE
IN THE NORTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CHINA DURING THIS TIME SHOULD ALSO PUSH THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48-HOURS, AFTER WHICH THERE IS SOME SPREAD
WITH THE NOGAPS AND WBAR TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF TO
THE LEFT. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT APPARENT TREND IN THE AIDS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
UP TO TAU 48, AFTER WHICH INTENSITIES ARE KEPT APPROXIMATELY 10-
KNOTS LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND
150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

From JMA

TD
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 14 December 2011

<Analyses at 14/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N5°50'(5.8°)
E139°25'(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)


<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°20'(6.3°)
E137°05'(137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 15/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°10'(7.2°)
E134°25'(134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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#30 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Dec 14, 2011 5:21 am

It's starting to get that "look." Shear also seems to have relaxed. Still too early to tell but looks like the resort island of Cebu could be in the firing line, conveniently there are direct flights there from Hong Kong!
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#31 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Dec 14, 2011 5:46 am

Agreed, this one starting to look more organized today, defiantly an interesting mid-winter storm.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 27W

#32 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Dec 14, 2011 5:58 am

I just put a video out on this, gave a shootout to storm2k.org at the end there.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Epd9NKq3ss[/youtube]
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#33 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 14, 2011 6:31 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 06.0N 138.6E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 07.5N 133.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 6.2N 139.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2N 139.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 6.7N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 7.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 8.0N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 8.9N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.6N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.6N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.5N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 6.3N 138.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS REFORMED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED IN TRACK
SPEED, THEREFORE, ALLOWING FOR THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR TO EASE. A
140636Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ORGANIZED
TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH MULTIPLE, WEAKER RAINBANDS TO THE
SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMI IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30-35 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW/KNES RESPECTIVELY.
RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 27W IS APPROXIMATELY
06 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED, BUT
WEAKENING, POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A FILLING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE OUTFLOW
INTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER SOURCE OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. TS 27W CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS BY THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO
SO OVER THE NEXT 12-HOURS. BY TAU 24, TS 27W SHOULD BEGIN TO STEER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STR CAUSED BY THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE AREA.
TS 27W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE STR AXIS AND MAINTAINS POLEWARD VENTING. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REACH MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 48 AND THEN
BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BY TAU 72. DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FROM TAU 96-120, TS 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON
A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA DUE TO A FORECASTED SURGE
IN THE NORTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CHINA DURING THIS TIME SHOULD ALSO PUSH THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48-HOURS, AFTER WHICH THERE IS SOME SPREAD
WITH THE NOGAPS AND WBAR TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF TO
THE LEFT. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT APPARENT TREND IN THE AIDS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
UP TO TAU 48, AFTER WHICH INTENSITIES ARE KEPT APPROXIMATELY 10-
KNOTS LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND
150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Storm 27W

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 14, 2011 9:47 am

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 6.7N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.7N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 7.5N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 8.3N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.2N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.2N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.4N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.6N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 10.3N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 6.9N 137.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH OF YAP,
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//

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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Storm 27W

#35 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Dec 14, 2011 10:03 am

Here is the link to the NWS Tropical Storm Warning for any one in Palua.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/GUM/HLSPQ2
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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Storm 27W

#36 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 14, 2011 10:59 am

I think the cold convection over the center is returning. It seems expanding and getting thicker. The question is until when it maintain its regenerating center and survive amid the quite "unfriendly" environment in the coming days.
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#37 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:30 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 06.9N 137.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 08.6N 131.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#38 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 14, 2011 8:18 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 07.3N 134.4E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 09.1N 128.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Storm 27W

#39 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 14, 2011 8:54 pm

JTWC downgrades to TD.

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#40 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 14, 2011 9:20 pm

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