WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

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#41 Postby phwxenthusiast » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:12 pm

don't know why JTWC downgraded it again... it's actually looking better on satellite and microwave signature has never looked better...

Image

btw, PAGASA is now issuing updates on 27W and has assigned the local name: "Sendong"
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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Depression 27W

#42 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 14, 2011 11:26 pm

T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.7mb/ 53.0kt

i can't believe jtwc lowered the intensity. this system is getting organized and numbers are near 55 knots 1 minute winds. i would place the intensity at that value...

everyone in palau, be safe...



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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Depression 27W

#43 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:14 am

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 27W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 7.2N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 8.1N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.2N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 10.9N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 11.7N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 10.9N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 9.2N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 133.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM SOUTHWEST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM SOUTHWEST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASYMMETRICAL
SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND OVER-SHOOTING TOPS CONSOLIDATING
CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A
142230Z SSMIS SERIES INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE SHOWING THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATIONS FROM KOROR (PTRO) SURFACE
REPORTS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THE EFFECTS
OF MILD SHEAR ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ARE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION, BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY TO
THE POLEWARD SIDE. WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXIST OVER THE SYSTEM, AND ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 30 TO 31 DEGREES. TD 27W IS TRACKING
STEADILY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED AND
STATIONARY RIDGE. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N 158E. A ZONAL LONG WAVE
PATTERN POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDICATES THAT THE
STEERING FORCE WILL REMAIN STEADY AND PREDICTABLE AND TD 27W WILL BE
A TYPICAL WEST-RUNNER.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 27W WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TRACK THROUGH
THE VISAYAS REGION OF THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO. EVEN FOR A WEST-
RUNNING SYSTEM, TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BOTH
TRACK AND SPEED THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
NOT BEEN AS RELIABLE BUT IS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE TAU. AS TD 27W TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 72 HOURS, IT WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY. THE DECREASING
VWS COUPLED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE RATE UNTIL IT
TRACKS INTO THE SULU SEA, WHERE THE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION WITH
THE VISAYAS AND INCREASING VWS WILL INITIATE A DOWNWARD INTENSITY
TREND.
C. TRACK GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE SULU SEA IN
THE MINDORO STRAIT REGION. ONCE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE
DOMINANT STEERING FORCE WILL SHIFT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHERN END OF A WINTER COLD SURGE DOMINATING THE NORTHERN SOUTH
CHINA SEA. ALTHOUGH GALES DUE TO GRADIENT COMPRESSION BETWEEN TD 27W
AND THE UPSTREAM COLD AIR MASS MAY SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, THE COMBINATION OF RISING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR ENTERING INTO THE BOUNDARY LEVELS
WILL ACT TO SEVERELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAILING TO CAPTURE THAT SCENARIO AND PREDICTS
RISING INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
DEVIATES FROM GUIDANCE AND DECAYS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, BUT STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS REGARDING TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Depression 27W

#44 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:18 am

It is starting to have the signature spiral circulation with major outer bands over the northern periphery. It kinda looks promising, judging the structure it has now. But the core is still not that defined though there's cooling convection near the center, could mean a start of a continuous consolidation.

Image
Last edited by dexterlabio on Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Depression 27W

#45 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 12:23 am

why is it moving so fast? if it starts slowing down, this would have alot of time to intensify to powerful typhoon...



BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272011
200 PM CHST THU DEC 15 2011

...TROPICAL STORM 27W WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

CORRECTION TO HEADER INFORMATION

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND
KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NGULU
55 MILES WEST OF KOROR
90 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KAYANGEL AND
340 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W IS MOVING WEST AT 23 MPH. 27W IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING AWAY FROM KOROR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 35 MPH. WHILE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 27W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SLOW
INTENSIFICATION AND MAY AGAIN BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...7.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 133.6
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 23 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.




URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST THU DEC 15 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W MOVING AWAY FROM KOROR AND KAYANGEL...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAS ENDED.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NGULU
55 MILES WEST OF KOROR
90 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KAYANGEL AND
340 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 35 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 27W IS MOVING WEST AT 23 MPH. 27W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THIS GENERAL COURSE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING AWAY FROM KOROR.

...KOROR AND KAYANGEL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS HAS ENDED. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD
BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 10
TO 20 MPH TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 11 FEET ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING BY TONIGHT.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W.
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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Depression 27W

#46 Postby P.K. » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:17 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1121 WASHI (1121) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 07.8N 132.5E FAIR
MOVE W 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 09.6N 126.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 170600UTC 10.6N 122.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 180600UTC 10.9N 117.5E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Depression 27W

#47 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:43 am

Image

beautiful...
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#48 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:57 am

it still has more than 24 hours before land interaction, let's see what it can do... 8-)
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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Depression 27W

#49 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:19 am

WTPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (WASHI) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 7.6N 132.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N 132.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 8.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 8.7N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 9.4N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.1N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.2N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 8.4N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 131.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150506Z AMSU IMAGE
DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF 20N. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. A 150055Z ASCAT 25-KM IMAGE SHOWED ONLY
25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHILE THE 15/00Z
KOROR SOUNDING SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 22 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, HOWEVER, THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED
ON THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TS 27W IS
TRACKING RAPIDLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AFTER TAU 48, MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-
CLUSTERED SUPPORTING A STRAIGHT-RUNNER PATTERN. TS 27W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24 AND SHOULD RE-
INTENSIFY AFTER ENTERING THE SULU SEA AFTER TAU 36, REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHEAST SURGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

Image

Washi sure is flying fast towards the philippines...

Washi - Aquila (eagle)


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 996.6mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.7 3.7


Image
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#50 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:46 am

microwave continues to look better by the hour... inner core also more organized...

Image
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Re: WPAC: JMA: TD - JTWC: Tropical Depression 27W

#51 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 5:10 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Everyone knows this is stronger than 35 knots. plus it has been a tropical storm for a long time before it was upgraded...i would place the intensity at 55 knots 1 minute winds...
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#52 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 15, 2011 10:58 am

JTWC may be prompted to increase the intensity as DT number increases further. This storm became small but actually the overall presentation right now is not bad. It's probably becoming a severe TS.
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#53 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:55 pm

Latest warning by JMA:

TS 1121 (WASHI)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 15 December 2011
<Analyses at 15/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°30'(7.5°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S170km(90NM)
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#54 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:32 pm

I don't get the JTWC estimate of Dvorak 2.5. Looks 3.5 to me and all other agencies, making Washi a 50-55 kt TS.
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#55 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 15, 2011 8:51 pm

It's just interesting that after so many years, a tropical cyclone is about the make landfall in Mindanao mainland. For the past typhoon seasons in the Philippines, I never heard provinces like Zamboanga to be under storm warning signals until now. I wish they are ready with this one even though they are not used to have storms hitting them before, especially that Washi is looking fiercer today. :eek: Yeah I agree wxman57, though I'm not a pro-met, I can say the presentation of this storm deserves to get DT number higher than 3.0. I would like to see the latest microwave image of Washi to confirm things. I'm guessing there could be an eye-like feature present in there.

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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 15, 2011 9:00 pm

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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#57 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Dec 15, 2011 10:12 pm

At least it's not like Super Typhoon Kate (Titang) in 1970.
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#58 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 10:15 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:At least it's not like Super Typhoon Kate (Titang) in 1970.


or Super Typhoon Mike in 1990

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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#59 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 10:20 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (WASHI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 7.4N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 7.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 8.2N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 8.6N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 9.1N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 9.4N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 8.0N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 5.9N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 127.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AND
CONSOLIDATING CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM CORE. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWED, DEEP
CONVECTION SPREAD OVER ALL QUADRANTS AND THE SYSTEM GAINED GREATER
SYMMETRY. A 152057Z SSMIS PASS REVEALS THICK LOW LEVEL BANDING IN
ALL QUADRANTS, WITH ESPECIALLY STRONG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LATEST AMSUB RADIAL CROSS SECTION INDICATES
AN INTENSIFYING AND RISING MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY. THE OUTER RAIN
BANDS ARE WASHING ONTO THE EAST COAST OF MINDANAO, BUT COASTAL
SURFACE REPORTS DO NOT SHOW ANY HAZARDOUS WINDS YET. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS SMALLER THAN AVERAGE WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT AREA OF
ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONFIRMS UNIMPEDED OUTFLOW ON ALL SIDES OF THE SYSTEM AND WELL-
DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED
AT 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 30 TO 31 DEGREES.
ALTHOUGH TS 27W CONTINUES TO STEER ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A MANNER TYPICAL OF WEST RUNNERS, IT HAS
MADE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO A BEARING JUST SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A WESTERLY TRACK WILL
RESULT IN A TREK OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MINDANAO, WHICH WILL
WEAKEN THE STORM SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE IT EJECTS INTO THE SULU SEA. A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ALONG TRACK ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE SPRATLY ISLANDS, HOWEVER, AND TS 27W WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITY TO REGROUP THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 72, IT WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND DUE TO THE DETERIORATING EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, INGESTION OF MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY
LEVELS, AND DECLINING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, EVEN FOR A WEST-RUNNER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
IMPROVED SUBSTANTIALLY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS IN CLOSE
ALIGNMENT WITH CONSENSUS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE.
C. AS TS 27W ENTERS THE CENTER OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IT WILL
LEAVE THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO
BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY THE NORTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW. ONCE THAT
OCCURS, TS 27W WILL COMMENCE A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND AND STEADILY
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE MALAY PENINSULA. TRACK GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DEVIATE IN THE EXTENDED RANGES, BUT IS NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN
PREDICTING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEAKENING TREND. THE
TRACK FORECAST STAYS JUST SOUTH OF CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO ECMWF, WHILE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GUIDANCE IN
DECAYING THE SYSTEM.//
NNNN


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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#60 Postby oaba09 » Thu Dec 15, 2011 11:36 pm

Definitely looks better and more organized compared to the past couple of days....A rare landfall in Mindanao. I hope the government agencies there are prepared....
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