WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

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#61 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 16, 2011 12:36 am

Image

very close to the coast
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#62 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 16, 2011 12:50 am

god bless the philippines!
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#63 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Dec 16, 2011 1:22 am

Image

Heavy precipitation to be expected in Mindanao. Again, seeing a landfall in Mindanao is very unusual as for me. I wasn't born yet the last time when a storm hit the region, I believe that was in the 70's or 80's, locally named Kadiang, or Nitang...not very sure though...
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#64 Postby cebuboy » Fri Dec 16, 2011 4:25 am

Very rare indeed to have this landfall in Mindanao. But happy to know this is not headed towards Cebu. I thought the weather was overall fine but lately this afternoon there are heavy rains and some winds in Cebu, I check Storm2k and found out this storm.

God bless to the people in Mindanao.
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#65 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 16, 2011 5:49 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#66 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 16, 2011 5:51 am

Is that an eye

Image
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#67 Postby phwxenthusiast » Fri Dec 16, 2011 6:04 am

don't think so... it's the legend they use for very cold cloud tops (gray)... look at the NRLMRY version and you'll see they use an amber-like color instead of RAMMB's gray tint...:)
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#68 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 16, 2011 6:24 am

Thanks phwxenthusiast.

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#69 Postby phwxenthusiast » Fri Dec 16, 2011 6:50 am

mwi, just before landfall... inner core looked good over there, could've become a typhoon if given another 24 hours imho

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#70 Postby oaba09 » Fri Dec 16, 2011 7:43 am

Anybody living in Mindanao who can give us updates?
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#71 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:45 am

JMA holding to 35 knots due to land interaction.

WTPQ20 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1121 WASHI (1121)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 08.1N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 09.0N 119.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 181200UTC 09.0N 115.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 191200UTC 09.0N 110.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
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#72 Postby phwxenthusiast » Fri Dec 16, 2011 5:18 pm

wow look at this microwave shot, does look like an eye in there!

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#73 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 16, 2011 6:03 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1121 WASHI (1121)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 08.6N 123.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 08.9N 118.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 181800UTC 08.7N 114.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 191800UTC 07.8N 109.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
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#74 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 16, 2011 6:46 pm

Intensity at landfall, I am guessing, was 50 kt (1-min). Probably remained near that as it crossed.
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#75 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 16, 2011 8:41 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1121 WASHI (1121)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 08.9N 122.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 08.9N 117.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190000UTC 08.4N 112.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 200000UTC 06.9N 108.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE WSW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
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#76 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:19 pm

Image

looking ragged
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#77 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:38 pm

WTPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (WASHI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 122.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 122.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 9.5N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 9.9N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.2N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 9.6N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 8.2N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 6.8N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 5.5N 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 121.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... wp2711.gif

next landfall: palawan....






WDPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING.
THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WARMER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SURROUNDED BY COLDER CLOUD TOPS,
WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE EYE FORMATION. A SERIES OF SSMI
ANS SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES (162044Z, 162025Z, AND 160006Z) HINT
TOWARDS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE. TS 27W CONTINUES ITS SWIFT TRACK AND
HAS NOW EMERGED OVER THE SULU SEA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
AGREEABLE CENTER FIXES FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD, ALONG WITH THE
MICROWAVE IMAGES, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK (05-10 KNOT), EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF 20N. TS 27W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED WESTWARDS BY A
STRONG, EAST-WEST ORIENTED, LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. WASHI WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS BY THE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED STR OUT TO TAU 36 AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDER CONTINUED FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BY TAU 48, TS 27W SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON. COLDER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON SHOULD ENTRAIN INTO THE BOUNDARY LEVEL AND HINDER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL LEAVE THE LLCC VULNERABLE TO THE LOWER-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW AND PUSH IT SOUTHWESTWARDS. ADDITIONALLY, LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FROM SOUTHEASTERN CHINA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DURING THIS TIME WHICH WOULD ALSO
HELP TO STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARDS.
C. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM TAU 72-120, TS 27W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE EASTERN SOUTH
CHINA SEA. BY TAU 96 WASHI SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST OF MALAYSIA AS A
WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 120 WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE OVERLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE WBAR WHICH PERSISTENTLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARDS INTO THE STRONG, WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE NOGAPS GRADUALLY CONTINUES TO COME IN LINE WITH A
SOUTHWESTWARD DIP IN THE TRACK. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MAJORITY OF
OBJECTIVE AIDS AND LIES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
WBAR SOLUTION.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#78 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:46 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


intensity landfall: 60 knots then briefly reached typhoon intensity peaking at 70 knots over the sulu sea. it now has weaken to 55 knots...

Disclaimer added by cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#79 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Dec 16, 2011 11:55 pm

Maybe many are still unaware but initial reports on the onslaught of Washi has at least 40 confirmed deaths and more than 260 missing from one city alone after severe flashfloods ravaged the area during midnight. More updates coming up.

Mayor: At least 40 confirmed dead, 260 missing in Iligan City flash flood
December 17, 2011 10:39am
5 Email0 52 ShareThis57
At least 40 people have been reported dead and 260 others missing due to flash floods caused by heavy rain from Tropical Storm Sendong (Washi) in Iligan City in Mindanao, a local official said Saturday.

In an interview on News TV Live, Iligan City Mayor Lawrence Cruz said around 40 people have been confirmed killed in the flash flood Friday night, adding that 260 are missing.

"Nabigla po kami lahat. Dumating ang flash flood tulog na yung mga tao. Yung tubig ay galing sa bundok na bumaba sa aming siyudad (We are shocked. Floods came in when people are asleep. The water came from the mountains and went down to our city)," he said.

Also, Cruz said they need relief goods immediately from the national government.

"Nakakuha na kami ng commitment of support from the Department of Social Welfare and Development and the Department of Interior and Local Government (We got commitment of support from the Department of Social Welfare and Development and the Department of Interior and Local Government)," Cruz added.

According to him, 11 barangays in the city were flooded, and two bridges connecting Iligan to other cities were swept away. — LBG, GMA News
Last edited by dexterlabio on Sat Dec 17, 2011 12:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: WASHI - Tropical Storm 27W

#80 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Dec 16, 2011 11:57 pm

'Sendong' death toll climbs to 56

abs-cbnNEWS.com
Posted at 12/17/2011 8:53 AM | Updated as of 12/17/2011 12:32 PM


MANILA, Philippines (2nd UPDATE) - The death toll from tropical storm "Sendong" (international name Washi) rose to 56 on Saturday as it battered southern Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said.

Fifty-one people drowned on Mindanao island, including 40 in Iligan city, while five were killed in a landslide in Campostela Valley, NDRRMC director Benito Ramos said.

Aside from the fatalities, one person was reported missing in a village in Cagayan de Oro, Ramos said in an earlier interview.

Iligan mayor Lawrence Cruz said rampaging floodwaters from swollen rivers swamped at least 10 villages in the city. He said water levels rose so fast while people were asleep.

In an advisory at 9 a.m., the NDRRMC, meanwhile, reported that a total of 5,040 passengers, 82 trucks, 6 cars, 143 buses, 6 motorized bancas, and 87 vessels were stranded in regions VI, VII, VIII, IX, X and CARAGA.

Weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Sendong has maintained its course and was moving toward the Sulu Sea as of 5 a.m. Saturday.

It was last spotted 20 kilometers West Northwest of Cagayan de Oro City, packing winds of 65 kilometer per hour and gustiness of up to 80 kph.

Signal Number 2 was hoisted over Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur and Zamboanga provinces.

Signal number 1 was raised in Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, Negros Oriental, Southern Negros Occidental, in the Visayas, and Camiguin Island, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, North Cotabato, and Maguindanao in Mindanao. - With reports from AFP; Dexter Ganibe, dzMM
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