SW PAC: FINA : Tropical Cyclone

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P.K.
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SW PAC: FINA : Tropical Cyclone

#1 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:21 am

Forecast to be named within the next day.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1244 UTC 20/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.7S
Longitude: 154.8E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east northeast [063 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12:
+24: 21/1200: 15.3S 155.1E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 22/0000: 16.5S 155.0E: 150 [280]: 050 [095]: 989
+48: 22/1200: 17.2S 154.7E: 185 [345]: 060 [110]: 982
+60: 23/0000: 18.6S 154.4E: 230 [430]: 050 [095]: 987
+72: 23/1200: 19.2S 155.0E: 280 [520]: 040 [075]: 993
REMARKS:
T2.0. Convection has increased in the last few hours with diurnal trend.
Organisation improving slightly.

Favourable outflow in all quadrants under the influence of an upper atmospheric
anticyclone. No significant wind shear expected over the next 2 days before an
upper trough should impact the system on Friday. As a result the system is
expected to develop over the next 48 hours and move to the south-southeast on
Wednesday and Thursday, before experiencing increasing wind shear and steering
to the southeast.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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#2 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:58 pm

AXAU21 ABRF 202308
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2308 UTC 20/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.1S
Longitude: 155.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [112 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/0600: 15.2S 156.2E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 997
+24: 21/1800: 16.3S 156.5E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+36: 22/0600: 17.5S 156.9E: 150 [280]: 050 [095]: 987
+48: 22/1800: 18.4S 156.7E: 185 [345]: 060 [110]: 978
+60: 23/0600: 19.4S 156.8E: 230 [430]: 050 [095]: 984
+72: 23/1800: 19.9S 157.4E: 280 [520]: 035 [065]: 995
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap, giving DT
of 2.0. MT and PT agree. FT based on MT as DT is not clear.

Organisation has improved slightly and convection has consolidated in the
vicinity of the low in the last 24 hours. The low appears to be in a favourable
environment for development with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures
around 30 degrees.

However, an upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on
Thursday, which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The
increase in the wind shear is likely to hinder development from Friday onwards,
though computer model guidance indicates that intensification may still occur
while the system possibly undergoes extra tropical transition.




Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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hurricane25

Re: SW PAC: Tropical Low 02U (92P)

#3 Postby hurricane25 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 7:07 pm

Looks like a depression of around 25-30 knots :wink: Well, anyways it has a nice area of convection. Looks promising!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 20, 2011 7:32 pm

Image

WTPS21 PGTW 202130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 155.2E TO 18.0S 157.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1S 155.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
154.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 155.7E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201747Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED,
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE LLCC. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP ALSO INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DISTINCT DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE. RECENT
SCATTEROMETERY DATA SUPPORTS A STRENGTHENING LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, SHIP OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM SUPPORT THE LLCC POSITION AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LLCC WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212130Z.
//
NNNN
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#5 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:23 am

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0650 UTC 21/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 157.1E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [141 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1800: 17.4S 157.3E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 997
+24: 22/0600: 18.6S 157.1E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 994
+36: 22/1800: 19.8S 156.7E: 140 [265]: 040 [075]: 994
+48: 23/0600: 20.9S 156.8E: 175 [325]: 035 [065]: 996
+60: 23/1800: 21.2S 157.7E: 220 [410]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 24/0600: 21.2S 159.0E: 270 [500]: 030 [055]: 999
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.35 degree wrap, giving DT
of 2.0. MT and PT give 2.0. FT based on MT as DT is not clear. CI held at 2.5.

Overnight convection has sheared off with persistent convection remaining lear
the LLCC. CIMSS analysing 20 knots of shear over the system which is likely the
cause for lack of development. Models hinting at similar shear for the next
36-48 hours. Slow development is still considered likely over this period with
inflow/outflow favourable.

An upper trough is expected to amplify across eastern Australia on Thursday,
which will increase the wind shear across the low into Friday. The increase in
the wind shear is likely to steer the system east-southeast and hinder
development from Friday onwards. Computer model guidance indicates that
intensification due to extra-tropical transition may occur over this period.




Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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Re: SW PAC: Tropical Low 02U (92P)

#6 Postby P.K. » Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:39 pm

Named at 15Z from what I can see.

AXAU21 ABRF 211831
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1831 UTC 21/12/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1500 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 157.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south [170 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 270 nm [500 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/0300: 18.6S 156.5E: 090 [165]: 035 [065]: 994
+24: 22/1500: 19.5S 156.0E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 999
+36: 23/0300: 20.8S 155.9E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 23/1500: 21.6S 156.5E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 998
+60: 24/0300: 21.8S 158.1E: 230 [430]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 24/1500: 21.9S 159.7E: 280 [520]: 030 [055]: 997
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a shear pattern with less than 0.5 degree separation
between the estimated location of the low level centre and the dense overcast,
giving DT of 3.0. MT and PT suggest 2.5. FT based on DT and supporting ASCAT
wind observations at 1127UTC.

Increasing shear has begun to impact on Tropical Cyclone Fina due to an
amplifying upper trough across eastern Australia. This increasing shear is
expected to continue impacting on Fina as it moves in a southerly direction and
should limit any further development. However, computer model guidance indicates
that intensification could still be possible due to extra-tropical transition
that may occur into Friday. Gale force winds are possible on Friday as this
transition occurs and a surge of southeasterly winds feed into the south of the
system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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#7 Postby Grifforzer » Wed Dec 21, 2011 4:34 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:11 am EST on Thursday 22 December 2011

At 1 am EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Fina (Category 1) with central pressure
996 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 17.5 south longitude 157.2
east, which is about 1110 km east of Townsville and 940 km east northeast of
Mackay.
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