AUS: INVEST 97P (former TC GRANT)

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Chacor
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#21 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 25, 2011 5:11 am

AXAU01 ADRM 250749
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0748 UTC 25/12/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Grant
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 132.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [144 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/1800: 11.4S 132.6E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 980
+24: 26/0600: 12.2S 132.6E: 080 [150]: 055 [100]: 980
+36: 26/1800: 13.0S 133.3E: 110 [210]: 030 [055]: 996
+48: 27/0600: 13.5S 134.4E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 996
+60: 27/1800: 13.5S 135.9E: 190 [355]: 040 [075]: 991
+72: 28/0600: 13.5S 137.5E: 240 [445]: 055 [100]: 981
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on CDO pattern gives a CF=3 and a BF=0.5 resulting in a DT
of 3.5. MET=4.0 and PT=3.5, FT based on DT=PT=3.5. McCluer Island, about 15 nm
SE from the centre has been reporting sustained winds of 40-50 knots [ten minute
mean] gusting 50-60 knots in recent observations. Strong winds are expected on
northern side of the system due to interaction with the monsoon flow. As such
the system has been upgraded to a Category 2 status. Latest satellite images
indicate continued development.

Centre is fixed by Darwin radar - though at the limit of effective range - and
surface observations. System is relatively small in size at 60 nm.

Model guidance continues to reflect the slow movement in the short term due to
system being balanced between the monsoon westerlies to the north and the
mid-level ridge to the south. Other than that a consistent model trend is for
slow short term motion in the 6 to 12 hour time frame, followed by a track to
the south and then eventually east southeast over the Top End as the mid level
ridge to the south weakens.

CIMMS upper level analyses suggests a weak TUTT feature on the western flank.
Due to proximity to land, and to upper flow limitations, maximum forecast
intensity has been capped at 60 knots 10 minute mean.

Longer term redevelopment in the Gulf of Carpentaria is a feature of a number of
models.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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#22 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 25, 2011 5:16 am

JTWC has upgraded to TC03S. Here's their discussion:

250300Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 132.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DAY'S FIRST FRAMES OF
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOW NUMEROUS OVER-SHOOTING TOPS WITH
DEEP, VIGOROUS CONVECTION MASSING NEAR THE SYSTEM CORE. THE LATEST
AMSU-B RADIAL CROSS SECTION VERIFIES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM MID-
LEVEL ANOMALY OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF DVORAK ASSESSMENTS OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
35 KNOTS FROM ADRM, 30 KNOTS FROM KNES, AND SURFACE REPORTS FROM
MCCLUER ISLAND AND BLACK POINT. DESPITE THE VARIATION IN
ASSESSMENTS, OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE TOP END DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
CONFIRM THAT TC 03S IS REALLY RAMPING UP. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT ZONAL OUTFLOW AS WELL AS SOME MINOR
IMPINGEMENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE 241200Z PGTW
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM,
SO OUTFLOW IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE REGION IS 31 TO 32
DEGREES. IN THE AGGREGATE, CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ARE
HIGHLY FAVORABLE AND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
LAND. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WEAK AND FICKLE. WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN, HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GAINED A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE PATTERN AND HAS GRADUALLY CAME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT. THERE
ARE STILL OUTLIERS, HOWEVER, WHICH ARE SKEWING CONSENSUS. TC GRANT
IS MEANDERING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENT AND THE
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ON THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE. A WEST-WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION IS INTENSIFYING THE WESTERLIES, ADDING TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER VORTICITY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOME SUBTLE
WEAKENING IN THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE AS A WEAK MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO ITS SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN, WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND PULL
SEAWARD AS THE SHORT WAVE WASHES OVER IT. AS THE RIDGE RETRACTS, IT
WILL OPEN A GAP TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. TC GRANT WILL TRACK ALONG
THAT PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE, MOVING INLAND NEAR TAU 15, AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TOP END. DESPITE THE OVERLAND TRACK,
HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE TOP END WILL ALLOW THE
LLCC TO REMAIN INTACT UNTIL IT EJECTS INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
ALTHOUGH THE AMBIGUITY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE OVER-LAND
TRACK MAKE FOR CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID-RANGE, IT IS
CERTAIN THAT ONCE THE LLCC ENTERS THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, IT WILL
ENCOUNTER VERY FERTILE GROUNDS FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. BECAUSE
CONSENSUS IS BEING SLOWED AND PULLED POLEWARD BY THE ERRONEOUS
INFLUENCES OF GFDN AND WBAR, THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO
ECMWF THAN CONSENSUS, ALTHOUGH IT DOES STAY BETWEEN THE TWO.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT, INDICATING
AN INTENSITY NEAR 50 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND
260300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
240221Z DEC 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
240230).//
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#23 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 25, 2011 1:53 pm

Landfall.

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28
Issued at 2:28 am CST on Monday 26 December 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Darwin to Milingimbi
including Darwin, the Tiwi Islands and inland to Jabiru and Oenpelli.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy.

The Cyclone WARNING from Dundee Beach to Darwin has been cancelled.

At 12:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Grant, Category 2 was estimated to be
75 kilometres south of Croker Island and
190 kilometres east northeast of Darwin
and is moving south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Grant crossed the Cobourg Peninsula during recent hours and is
now located over the far eastern Van Diemen Gulf. Tropical Cyclone Grant is
expected to continue moving south, crossing the coast east of Point Stuart
later during Monday. Tropical Cyclone Grant is then expected to take a more
southeasterly track and weakening throughout the day.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 140 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced over the eastern Van Diemen Gulf and adjacent coast. Destructive
winds are now easing over the northern Cobourg Peninsula.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced
between Cape Don and Goulburn Island and may extend inland to Oenpelli and
Jabiru during Monday. Gales may extend along the coast between Cape Fourcroy
and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands during Monday.

Darwin may experience GALES on Monday on the edge of the tropical cyclone as it
passes to the east.

GALES may extend further east to Nhulunbuy later Tuesday night or early
Wednesday if the tropical cyclone takes a more easterly path.

Coastal residents between Cape Don and Goulburn Island are specifically warned
of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are
likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES
and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises
over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur Districts.
The Territory Controller advises residents from west of Maningrida to Snake
Bay, including Cape Don, Croker Island and Goulburn Island to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Residents of remaining areas from Darwin to Milingimbi, including Point Stuart,
Jabiru and Oenpelli should now make final preparations to your home shelter or
identify which public emergency shelter to use.

For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency
kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and Rural Areas that if
you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of
your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to
use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED
TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

REPEATING: Residents from west of Maningrida to Snake Bay, including Cape Don,
Croker Island and Goulburn Island are advised to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Grant at 12:30 am CST:

.Centre located near...... 11.8 degrees South 132.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 981 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Monday 26 December.
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#24 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Dec 25, 2011 11:39 pm

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #32
2:00 PM CST December 26 2011

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (995 hPa) located at 12.5S 132.6E or 55 km west southwest of Oenpelli and 185 km east of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant has weakened below cyclone strength, with winds near the center below GALE force.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Don and Goulburn Island today. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts.

The Territory Controller advises residents in communities currently in shelter to remain until advised by local authorities that the all clear has been given.

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Cape Hotham to Goulburn Island, and inland to Oenpelli and Jabiru, has been cancelled.
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#25 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 26, 2011 7:59 am

AXAU01 ADRM 260735
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0734 UTC 26/12/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.6S
Longitude: 132.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south [185 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1800: 13.2S 133.1E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 996
+24: 27/0600: 13.4S 134.1E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 996
+36: 27/1800: 13.4S 135.2E: 125 [230]: 030 [055]: 993
+48: 28/0600: 13.1S 136.2E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 993
+60: 28/1800: 12.6S 137.8E: 205 [375]: 030 [055]: 994
+72: 29/0600: 12.7S 139.2E: 250 [465]: 040 [075]: 989
REMARKS:
Convection remains persistent in the last 3hrs, with deep convection to the
south. LLCC partially obscured as the system weakens further over land. Dvorak
based on curved band yields a wrap of 0.35 with FT based on DT=2.5

Current position based on surface observations, radar and satellite imagery.

Model guidance indicate a southward movement in the next 6-12 hours as the
monsoon westerlies to the north begin to dominate the mid-level steering of the
system. An easterly track over the Top End and then into the Gulf of Carpentaria
is expected later as the mid level ridge to the south weakens.

Longer term redevelopment in the Gulf of Carpentaria is a feature of a number of
models.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
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#26 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 26, 2011 8:02 am

Here's the latest inland severe weather warning from Darwin:

IDD20040
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

WARNING

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds and Heavy Rainfall.
for people in the Darwin-Daly and Arnhem Districts
Issued at 5:00 pm CST Monday 26 December 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 3:30 pm CST, ex-Tropical Cyclone GRANT 996 hPa was
located over land near latitude 12.6S, longitude 132.6E, about 187 kilometres
east of Darwin. It is currently moving south, but is expected to turn towards
the east and move across the Top End towards the Gulf of Carpentaria over the
next day or so.

Damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h are expected within 120 km of the centre
during tonight and Tuesday. Heavy rain currently falling over the Darwin-Daly
and Arnhem Districts may lead to localised flooding. Rain and damaging winds are
expected to ease over the western Top End during Tuesday.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose
outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11:00 pm Monday
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#27 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 27, 2011 6:17 am

A freight train has been derailed and two people were swept from their car in flooding that struck Australia's Northern Territories.

Two crew members were stranded and hurt when the freight train derailed from a bridge near Katherine in south Darwin.

A man and a woman were also swept from their car on a bridge in the same area, and found clinging to a tree by police.

Heavy rain from Tropical Cyclone Grant, now downgraded to a tropical low on Boxing Day, caused the floods.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16336578
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#28 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 27, 2011 6:18 am

Darwin has resumed warnings. A watch has been issued:

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 34
Issued at 4:52 pm CST on Tuesday 27 December 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Nhulunbuy to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt.

At 3:30 pm CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant was estimated to be
165 kilometres south southeast of Jabiru and
405 kilometres west southwest of Nhulunbuy
and moving southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Ex-tropical Cyclone Grant is slowly moving towards the east and is likely to
move over the Gulf of Carpentaria later on Wednesday night or early Thursday,
where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to move
steadily east across the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday and Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
may develop later if the cyclone forms close to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the
Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt. Large
waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time
to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant at 3:30 pm CST:

.Centre located near...... 14.0 degrees South 133.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Tuesday 27 December.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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#29 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:59 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 36
Issued at 4:52 am CST on Wednesday 28 December 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Nhulunbuy to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt.

At 3:30 am CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant was estimated to be
115 kilometres west northwest of Numbulwar and
305 kilometres southwest of Nhulunbuy
and moving east at 10 kilometres per hour.

Ex-tropical Cyclone Grant is slowly moving towards the east and is expected to
move into the Gulf of Carpentaria later on Wednesday night. The system is
expected to move steadily east across the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday
and Friday and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Thursday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
may develop later if the cyclone forms close to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern
Arnhem and eastern Roper-McArthur Districts.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt. Large
waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time
to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant at 3:30 am CST:

.Centre located near...... 14.0 degrees South 134.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Wednesday 28 December.
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#30 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:36 am

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0723 UTC 28/12/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.1S
Longitude: 135.9E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: east [095 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/1800: 14.1S 137.3E: 080 [150]: 025 [045]: 1000
+24: 29/0600: 14.0S 138.6E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 1000
+36: 29/1800: 13.9S 140.0E: 140 [265]: 035 [065]: 996
+48: 30/0600: 13.9S 141.4E: 175 [325]: 040 [075]: 992
+60: 30/1800: 13.8S 143.0E: 220 [410]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 31/0600: 13.7S 144.8E: 270 [500]: 025 [045]: 1000
REMARKS:
Position primarily based on surface observations.

The low remains in a moderately sheared environment of 15-25 kt to the SE. Deep
convection associated with this system has been displaced well away from the
LLCC, which is near the coast. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear
is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems
presence in the Gulf of Caprentaria. As such, the development rate of this
system is forecast to be slower than the standard rate. This means that TC
development could occur in the eastern Gulf of Caprentaria after two nights over
warm waters.

Dry air is also evident to the west of the system as indicated in water vapour
imagery and the Darwin sounding at 27/23Z. The Gove sounding north of the system
at the equivalent time indicates a relatively deep, moist environment.

The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the
mid level trough and strong W steering to the north.

An alternative scenario is that sheer domimates the system and a monsoonal low
structure develops. This is a feature of a number of models.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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#31 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:37 am

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued at 10:47 pm CST [11:17 pm EST] on Wednesday 28 December 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland.

At 9:30 pm CST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant was estimated to be
35 kilometres south southeast of Alyangula and
225 kilometres south of Nhulunbuy
and moving east at 11 kilometres per hour.

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected
to move steadily east, and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight on
Thursday or Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours,
however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the eastern
Arnhem tonight, including Groote Eylandt. HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to
flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the
Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt in the
Northern Territory and also between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in
Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant at 9:30 pm CST:

.Centre located near...... 14.2 degrees South 136.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am CST Thursday 29 December [5:30 am EST
Thursday 29 December].
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#32 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:38 am

JTWC have issued a fresh TCFA.
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#33 Postby Grifforzer » Wed Dec 28, 2011 2:30 pm

Tropical Cyclone Advice #40
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
5:00 AM CST December 29 2011

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (998 hPa) located at 14.4S 138.0E, or 180 km east southeast of Alyangula and 285 km north northwest of Mornington Island. The low is reported as moving east at 10 knots.

Ex-tropical cyclone Grant is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to continue moving steadily east, and may redevelop into a tropical cyclone on Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas of Queensland in the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later.

HEAVY RAIN potentially leading to flooding is expected to develop across the Peninsula and northern parts of the Gulf Country districts in Queensland during Thursday and Friday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Thursday Island and Mornington Island in Queensland. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along the foreshore.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth in Queensland.
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Re: AUS: GRANT (04U) - Tropical Low (JTWC: ex-03S TCFA)

#34 Postby Aussie_Thunder » Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:38 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TCFA canceled by JTWC and BOM no longer thinking of reformation either...unfavourable upper level conditions, namely increasing wind shear associated with the amplifying trough cooked him and his LLCC became extremely spread out and ugly looking the last 48 hours with no real vorticity maximum focus present in at the 850 level, still warnings out for servere weather associated with the crosing of CYP NQLD....EC Detremistic has him making a return to the E QLD coastline after flutering around in the CS, then a ridge begins to build underneath him....yeah we will see, can't trust a detremistic! :roll: Personally hoping in the short term for a more southeasterly track to bring me some rain....*sighs* not a likely scenario! ( What would you know, just checked the 12Z EC detremistic...going to the graveyard(aka Nth NZ)!

WTXS21 PGTW 282130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/272121Z DEC 11//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 272130). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 135.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
14.3S 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO A BAND ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 281958Z
SSMIS IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THOUGH VERY
WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA MAY SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, THE DISTURBANCE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT REACHES THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD
OF 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND ELONGATED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 41
Issued at 10:55 am EST on Thursday 29 December 2011

The Cyclone WATCH from Thursday Island to Gilbert River Mouth has been
cancelled.

At 10:00 am EST [9:30 am CST] a Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant was estimated to be
250 kilometres west southwest of Cape Keerweer and
350 kilometres southwest of Weipa and
moving east at 22 kilometres per hour towards the west coast of Cape York
Peninsula.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is no longer expected to develop into a tropical
cyclone. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant will continue moving east towards the west
coast of Cape York Peninsula as a monsoon low.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is now current for Heavy Rainfall, Damaging
Wind Gusts and Abnormally High Tides for areas north of Karumba to Cardwell.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant at 10:00 am EST [9:30 am CST]:
.Centre located near...... 14.4 degrees South 139.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

No further advices will be issued for this system.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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I come from the land down under....

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#35 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:29 am

AXAU21 ABRF 290110
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0109 UTC 29/12/2011
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.4S
Longitude: 139.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 135 nm [250 km]
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/1200: 14.3S 140.7E: 050 [095]: 025 [045]: 1001
+24: 30/0000: 14.4S 142.4E: 080 [150]: 020 [035]: 1004
+36: 30/1200: 14.3S 144.0E: 110 [210]: 025 [045]: 1001
+48: 31/0000: 14.6S 146.6E: 145 [270]: 025 [045]: 1002
+60: 31/1200: 14.6S 148.7E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 01/0000: 15.0S 150.4E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis was not possible, though a FT of 1.0 was applied based on nearby
surface observations.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is situated in a moderately sheared environment with
CIMMS indicating approximately 15-25 knots of shear across the system. The low
level centre is now visible on satellite imagery and most of the convection now
appears to be well removed from the centre.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant will continue to move east towards the west coast of
Cape York Peninsula under the influence of an upper trough moving across eastern
Australia. Redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is now deemed a low chance due
to a combination of shear created by the upper trough and dry air affecting the
system from the south.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
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#36 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:18 am

JTWC / NRL have picked up Grant's remnants as INVEST 97P:

Image
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#37 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:19 am

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Friday the 30th of December 2011 and valid until end of
Monday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At time of issue, the monsoon trough extended from a monsoon low [Ex-Tropical
Cyclone Grant] over eastern Cape York Peninsula into the northwestern Coral Sea.
The monsoon trough is expected to contract northeast off the Queensland coast
into the northern Coral Sea over the weekend. A number of low pressure centres
may develop on the monsoon trough over the Coral Sea. The environment is not
expected to be favourable for intensification of a low but the situation will be
monitored carefully. If a deep low does develop it will move east away from the
Queensland coast with no impacts expected.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low
Monday: Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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