NIO: ex-THANE - Depression (JTWC: ex-06B)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10231
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

NIO: ex-THANE - Depression (JTWC: ex-06B)

#1 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 23, 2011 6:40 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N
84.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 87.0E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN MONSOON
TROUGH. A 230311Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THAT THE LLCC IS WEAK.
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS BEING ENHANCED BY
INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW STREAMING OVER THE BAY
OF BENGAL. IN ADDITION, A WEST WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH A MADDEN-
JULIAN OSCILLATION IS ADDING TO THE SPIN ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MIXED, WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. 26 TO 28 DEGREE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MEET THE MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Nothing from IMD.
Image
Last edited by Chacor on Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:37 pm, edited 7 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10231
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#2 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 24, 2011 10:51 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N
87.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 83.4E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING OF CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTEROMETRY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS IN BOTH SEMICIRCLES. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE. A WEST WIND BURST ASSOCIATED WITH A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
IS INCREASING THE ROTATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYERS OF THE SYSTEM.
THE LLCC EXISTS UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION, WHICH IS
MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. 26 TO 28 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MEET THE MINIMUM
REQUIREMENTS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes   

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 376
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

#3 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Dec 24, 2011 12:03 pm

The low pressure area over southern parts of southeast Bay of Bengal now lies as a well marked low pressure area over the same region. The system would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours and move in a west northwesterly direction initially.
0 likes   

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 376
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

#4 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Dec 25, 2011 12:22 pm

India Meteorological Department

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Bay Of Bengal.

At 17:30 PM IST, Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centered near 8.5N 88.5E, or about 1000 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil nadu), 800 km east of Trincomalee (Sri lanka), 600 km west-southwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move initially north northwestwards, intensify into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclonic storm during next 48 hrs. It may then move towards north Tamil Nadu coast.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal south of 15.5N east of 82.0E the associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization. The poleward outflow is distinctly visible in the satellite imagery, which favors intensification.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system center.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is 50-80 kj/cm2 to the west and west northwest of the system and less than 50 kj/cm2 near Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast. The Madden Julian oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction models predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 5 during the next one week. The phase 5 is favorable for intensification, as per past studies. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 10N and hence provides required poleward outflow for intensification of the system. The low level convergence has increased during past 24 hours as well as upper level divergence. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hpa level is moderate (15-20 kts). However, it increases towards the coast of Sri Lanka and India, becoming 20-30 knots.
0 likes   

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 376
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

#5 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Dec 25, 2011 11:44 pm

BOB 05-2011
Bulletin NR 03
Dated: Monday December 26 2011
Time of issue: 08:30 AM IST

SUBJECT: Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal - Pre-cyclone watch

At 5:30 AM IST, The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and intensified into deep depression. Deep Depression BOB05-2011 lays centered over southeast Bay of Bengal near 9.5N 87.5E, about 900 km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 700 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 600 km southwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move northwestwards, intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. It is likely to move northwestward initially, then west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by early Thursday morning.

6 HRS: 10.0N 87.0E - 30 knot (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 10.5N 86.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 84.5E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.0N 82.0E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman & Nicobar islands during next 24 hours. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely to commence over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from Tuesday December 27th

Squally wind speed of 45-55 km/h is likely to prevail along and off Andaman & Nicobar coast during next 24 hours and squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from Tuesday onwards.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Island, coast during next 48 hours and will be rough to very rough from along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast from Tuesday onwards

Fishermen along Andaman & Nicobar coast are advised not to venture into sea during next 24 hours and fishermen along Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & south Andhra Pradesh coast coasts, who are out at sea are advised to return to the coast.

The next bulletin will be issued at 11:30 AM IST, Monday December 26
0 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Dec 26, 2011 4:26 am

Now (unofficially) named TC 06B by JTWC.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10231
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#7 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 26, 2011 4:42 pm

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-12-2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 26
DECEMBER, 2011 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 26 DECEMBER, 2011 (.)

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED FURTHER
NORTHWARDS AND INTENSIFIED INTO CYCLONIC STORM THANE
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF YESTERDAY, THE 26TH DECEMBER 2011
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 87.5.DEG E, ABOUT 800 KM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI(43279), 700 KM NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE
(43418) AND 550 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR (43333).
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY INTO
A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HRS. THEN IT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN CUDDALORE(43329) AND NELLORE(43245)
BY MORNING OF 30TH DECEMBER 2011.



ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS
T2.5. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -90 DEG.C
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL LATITUDE
9.0 DEG N TO 16.0 DEG N EAST OF LONGITUDE 82.5 DEG E, OVER ANDAMAN &
NICOBAR
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS DISTINCTLY VISIBLE IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERIES, WHICH FAVOURS INTENSIFICATION.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT
35 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ABOUT 996 HPA.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL
TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN
IN THE TABLE BELOW:
DATE/TIME POSITION SUSTAINED MAXIMUM INTENSITY
(UTC) (LAT.DEG N/LONG.DEG E) SURFACE WIND SPEED(KMPH)
26-12-2011/1800 11.0/87.5 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
27-12-2011/0000 11.5/87.0 75-85 GUSTING TO 95 CYCLONIC STORM
27-12-2011/0600 12.0/86.5 85-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
27-12-2011/1200 12.5/86.0 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM
27-12-2011/1800 13.0/85.5 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM
28-12-2011/0600 13.3/84.5 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM
28-12-2011/1800 13.5/83.0 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM
29-12-2011/0600 13.0/81.5 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM
29-12-2011/1800 13.0/80.5 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM



REMARK:

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
IS ABOUT 27-28 DEG. C. OVER THE REGION. IT IS RELATIVELY LESS
TOWARDS TAMIL NADU AND SRI LANKA COAST BECOMING 26-27 DEG. C.
THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50 - 80 KJ/CM SQUARE AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM SQUARE TO THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM AND LESS THAN . 50 KJ/CM SQUARE NEAR TAMILNADU
AND NORTH SRILANKA COAST. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX
CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 5. AS PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL
PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO LIE IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT ONE
WEEK. THE PHASE 5 IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, AS PER OUR
PAST STUDIES. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 15 DEG. N
AND HENCE PROVIDES REQUIRED POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASED DURING PAST 6
HRS AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. HOWEVER, IT INCREASES TOWARDS THE COAST OF
SRI LANKA, BECOMING 20-30 KNOTS (MODERATE TO HIGH). WIND SHEAR
TENDENCY AROUND THE SYSTEM IS NEGATIVE OF THE ORDER OF 10-20 KNOTS.
CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY NEXT
24 HRS. DYNAMICAL- STATISTICAL MODEL OF IMD ALSO SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. WITH RESPECT TO TRACK,
MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 24 HRS
AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU
AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN CUDDALORE (43329) AND
NELLORE (43245) BY MORNING OF 30TH DECEMBER 2011. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE NWP MODELS GUIDANCE.
0 likes   

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 376
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

#8 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:18 pm

BOB 05-2011
Bulletin NR 16
Dated: Wednesday December 28 2011
Time of issue: 05:30 AM IST

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Yellow Message

At 2:30 AM IST, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 12.5N 86.0E, about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 650 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 700 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore around Friday morning

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 8.0N to 16.0N and between 81.0E to 88.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 992 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system's center.

6 HRS: 12.7N 85.5E - 45-50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.9N 85.0E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.3N 83.0E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.2N 79.5E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
0 likes   

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 376
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

#9 Postby Grifforzer » Wed Dec 28, 2011 3:48 am

BOB 05-2011
Bulletin NR 18
Dated: Wednesday December 28 2011
Time of issue: 10:30 AM IST

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm "THANE" Over Southwest And Adjoining Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Orange Message

At 8:30 AM IST, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lays centered near 12.5N 85.5E, or about 550 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 750 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore, close to south of Chennai around Friday morning.

However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 14.0N and 81.0E to 88.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 987 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

6 HRS: 12.5N 85.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.7N 84.3E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.8N 81.7E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.7N 78.9E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

Re: NIO: THANE - Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#10 Postby P.K. » Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:38 am

Upgraded.

Bulletin No. BOB 05/2011/20
Dated: 28.12. 2011 Time of issue:1700 hours IST


Sub : Severe Cyclonic Storm THANE over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Orange Message

The cyclonic storm THANE over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary, intensified into a severe cyclonic storm and lay centered at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 28th December 2011 near latitude 12.50N and longitude 85.00E, about 500 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 800 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Sriharikota, close to south of Chennai around morning of 30th December 2011. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)


Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)


Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)


Intensity

28-12-2011/1430


12.5/85.0


90-100 gusting to 110


Severe Cyclonic Storm

28-12-2011/1730


12.5/84.3


100-110 gusting to 125


Severe Cyclonic Storm

28-12-2011/2330


12.5/83.6


110-120 gusting to 135


Severe Cyclonic Storm

29-12-2011/0530


12.5/82.9


120-130 gusting to 145


Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

29-12-2011/1130


12.5/82.2


110-120 gusting to 135


Severe Cyclonic Storm

29-12-2011/2330


12.5/80.4


100-110 gusting to 125


Severe Cyclonic Storm

30-12-2011/1130


12.7/79.5


90-100 gusting to 110


Severe Cyclonic Storm

30-12-2011/2330


12.7/78.1


65-75 gusting to 85


Cyclonic Storm

31-12-2011/1130


12.5/76.7


45-55 gusting to 65


Deep Depression


Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely to commence over north Tamil Nadu & Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from tomorrow the 29th December 2011 onwards. The intensity of rainfall would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25cm or more) from 29th evening onwards and extend to Rayalseema and north interior Tamil Nadu.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from tomorrow morning the 29th December 2011 onwards. The wind speed will increase gradually from 29th night onwards becoming 100-110 kmph gusting to 125 kmph along and off north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast at the time of landfall.

Storm surge of about 1 meter height above the astronomical tide would inundate the low lying areas of Nellore district of south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram and Villupuram districts of north Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.

Sea condition will be high to very high around the system centre. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from tomorrow onwards becoming high to very high from 29th night onwards.

Fishermen along north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & south Andhra Pradesh coasts are advised not to venture into sea. Those who are out at sea are advised to return to the coast.


Damage expected (over north coastal Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh): Extensive damage to thatched roof and huts. Minor damage to power and communication line due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.


Action suggested (over north coastal Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh): Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer place. People in affected areas to remain indoors.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today the 28th December, 2011.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10231
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#11 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:49 am

And just three hours later, it's a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm. Even IMD have this RI-ing...
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26794
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 11:49 am

Will this just recurve northeast?
0 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#13 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 2:27 pm

Would Thane be the first storm to be the season's strongest AND to cross over into the next year/season?
Chances are quite high that the storm lasts until January '12. It already is the strongest NIO storm by wind speeds, but it needs to deepen 2 mbars to reach the pressure of BOB 02 (978mb).
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2058
Age: 43
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: NIO: THANE - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#14 Postby Crostorm » Wed Dec 28, 2011 5:18 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10231
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

Re:

#15 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 28, 2011 5:43 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Chances are quite high that the storm lasts until January '12. It already is the strongest NIO storm by wind speeds, but it needs to deepen 2 mbars to reach the pressure of BOB 02 (978mb).


Actually, not really. Landfall will kill it before the new year:

31-12-2011/0530 12.5/77.5 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression

31-12-2011/1730 12.5/76.1 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression

If it regenerates in the Arabian Sea I don't think it really counts, it'll merely have lasted in two different years but it wouldn't continuously have been a named storm throughout.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26794
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 5:50 pm

Looking at the radar and satellite, I would estimate it to be about 80 kt right now (1-min).
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Dec 28, 2011 9:57 pm

Image

Latest visible
0 likes   

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1214
Age: 34
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: NIO: THANE - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#18 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:51 am

I really hope this doesn't become India's TS Washi. Nasty looking eyewall on radar:

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm

Select Chennai as station then click through the tabs on left hand side.
0 likes   
James - Documenting typhoons...

http://www.youtube.com/TyphoonHunter

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

Re: Re:

#19 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:22 am

Chacor wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:Chances are quite high that the storm lasts until January '12. It already is the strongest NIO storm by wind speeds, but it needs to deepen 2 mbars to reach the pressure of BOB 02 (978mb).


Actually, not really. Landfall will kill it before the new year:

31-12-2011/0530 12.5/77.5 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression

31-12-2011/1730 12.5/76.1 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression

If it regenerates in the Arabian Sea I don't think it really counts, it'll merely have lasted in two different years but it wouldn't continuously have been a named storm throughout.


That's right, but if the system itself can last until 01/01, it's still the same system, no matter if it's a depression or a storm.
But chances are now higher that it'll fall apart on the 31st and weaken into a LPA which of course is not counted towards the system's lifetime.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2058
Age: 43
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: NIO: THANE - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#20 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:57 am

0 likes   


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest