NIO: ex-THANE - Depression (JTWC: ex-06B)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Chickenzilla
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:31 am
Location: Croatia (Southeast Europe)

Re: NIO: THANE - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#21 Postby Chickenzilla » Thu Dec 29, 2011 6:32 am

Thane may already be a Category 3 on SSHS scale.
Is EWRC already starting?
Image
0 likes   

hurricane25

Re: NIO: THANE - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#22 Postby hurricane25 » Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:07 am

Chickenzilla wrote:Thane may already be a Category 3 on SSHS scale.
Is EWRC already starting?
http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/2152/tcthanenio2011mwave3.png



Not very likely within my opinion. No visible eye, so i'd say 80-85 knots.
1# No eye at all
2# The microwave imagine you provided shows that the eye is totally open on the eastern side. Only about 40 percent closed. Irene 3-4 hours before landfall like, which was only 70-80 knots.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat1.html
0 likes   

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1214
Age: 35
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: NIO: THANE - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#23 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Dec 29, 2011 10:40 am

Chickenzilla wrote:Thane may already be a Category 3 on SSHS scale.
Is EWRC already starting?


I agree with Hurricane25. Cat. 3? If you're going to make such a bold statement please at least back it up with some meteorological reasoning.
0 likes   
James - Documenting typhoons...

http://www.youtube.com/TyphoonHunter

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27374
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#24 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 29, 2011 10:50 am

I agree that 80 to 85 is reasonable.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14432
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: NIO: THANE - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#25 Postby tolakram » Thu Dec 29, 2011 1:12 pm

Thane may already be a Category 3 on SSHS scale.


Don't forget to use the S2K disclaimer when making statements like this. Thanks.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#26 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 29, 2011 2:53 pm

Image

visible image of TC Thane about 11 hours ago
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#27 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:03 pm

Image

very close to landfall
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4213
Age: 29
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: NIO: THANE - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#28 Postby Macrocane » Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:12 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

As it usually happens in this basin the intensity is being underestimated by both IMD and JTWC, let's hope it won't be too damaging.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#29 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 29, 2011 3:20 pm

For some crazy reason, the JTWC has downgraded Thane to 60 knots. IMD are at 75 knots.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#30 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 29, 2011 5:18 pm

Image

Latest radar
0 likes   

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3421
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

Re: NIO: THANE - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#31 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Dec 29, 2011 6:12 pm

Looks like Thane and Benilde are twins.

Aren't twin cyclones a precursor to El Nino?
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#32 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:06 pm

Image

a few hours ago
0 likes   

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5070
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: NIO: THANE - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#33 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:30 pm

Looks quite impressive on radar.
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2058
Age: 43
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: NIO: THANE - Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (06B)

#34 Postby Crostorm » Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:51 pm

Landfall

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#35 Postby Chacor » Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:56 pm

Doesn't look like it'll last long overland, and both IMD and JTWC agree on that...
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#36 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:16 am

Bulletin No. BOB 05/2011/35


Dated: 30.12. 2011 , Time of issue:1330 hours IST


Sub : Severe Cyclonic Storm 'THANE' weakened rapidly into a deep depression

The severe cyclonic storm 'THANE' over north Tamil Nadu near cuddalore moved further westward and weakened rapidly into a deep depression and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 30th December 2011 near latitude 11.80N and longitude 79.00E, about 100 Km west of Cuddalore. The system is likely to move westwards and weaken further.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)


Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)


Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)


Intensity

30-12-2011/1130


11.8/79.0


55-65 gusting to 75


Deep Depression

30-12-2011/1730


11.8/78.3


40-50 gusting to 60


Depression

30-12-2011/2330


11.8/77.6


25-35 gusting to 45


Low Pressure area

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over north interior Tamil Nadu during next 24 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 12 hrs and over Rayalseema, north Kerala and south Karnataka during next 24 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is likely over north

Tamil Nadu during next 3 hours and then decrease gradually.


The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 30th December, 2011.
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4213
Age: 29
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: NIO: ex-THANE - Deep Depression (JTWC: ex-06B)

#37 Postby Macrocane » Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:45 am

New Delhi (CNN) -- Lashing winds and heavy rain pummeled India's southeastern coastline Friday as Cyclone Thane roared onshore killing at least 19 people.

The storm uprooted trees, ripped off traffic signals from their posts and sent shards of glass and other debris whizzing through the air.

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/30/world/asia/india-storm/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2058
Age: 43
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

#38 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 30, 2011 4:17 pm

More news are comming from India

Cyclone Thane kills 33 in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry
CHENNAI: At least 33 people were killed as cyclone Thane that hit the Tamil Nadu coast, with a wind speed of 140 kmph, Friday morning left a trail of death and destruction of crops and properties in the state and Puducherry, officials said.
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/cycl ... 66408.html

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvUAaXwrIhQ[/youtube]
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#39 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 30, 2011 5:36 pm

Bulletin No. BOB 05/2011/36

Dated: 30.12. 2011 Time of issue:1900 hours IST


Sub : Depression over north Tamilnadu.

The deep depression moved west- southwestward weakened into a depression and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 30th December 2011 over north Tamilnadu close to Salem. The system is likely to move westwards and weaken further into a low pressure area during next 12 hours.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places would occur over north Tamil Nadu during next 12 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy rainfall may occur over Rayalaseema during next 12 hours and over north Kerala and coastal and south interior Karnataka during next 24 hours.

The next bulletin will be issued at 0830 hrs IST of tomorrow, the 311st December, 2011.
0 likes   

User avatar
Chacor
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10229
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:43 pm
Location: Singapore

#40 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:40 am

Bulletin No. BOB 05/2011/37

Dated: 31.12. 2011 Time of issue:0830 hours IST

Sub Depression weakened into well marked low pressure area.

The depression over north Tamilnadu close to Salem moved westwards and weakened further into well marked low pressure area over north Kerala and neighbourhood at 0530 hours IST of today, the 31st December 2011.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy falls at isolated places would occur over Kerala during next 24 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy rainfall may occur over south interior Karnataka and north interior Tamilnadu during next 12 hours.

The system is under constant watch.

This is the last bulletin for the Cyclonic storm 'THANE'.
0 likes   


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests