AUS: INVEST 95S (JTWC: LOW)

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Chacor
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AUS: INVEST 95S (JTWC: LOW)

#1 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 23, 2011 6:42 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S
94.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 95.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 231200Z PGTW UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN AN AREA OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT 26 TO
27 DEGREES, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Image
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Grifforzer
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#2 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Dec 24, 2011 3:10 am

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
1:42 PM WST December 24 2011
=========================

At midday WST a tropical low was located near 8S 95E, outside of the Western Region. This low is likely to enter the Western Region during Saturday and move west of 90E late Saturday or early Sunday. This low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the Western Region.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Sunday: Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Very Low
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Chacor
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#3 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 24, 2011 8:22 am

IDW10800

UPDATED
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:18pm WST on Saturday the 24th of December 2011
Valid until midnight WST Tuesday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At midday WST a tropical low was located near 14S 93E. This low is likely to
continue to track SW'ly out of the Western Region during Saturday evening and
early Sunday morning. This low is not expected to develop into a tropical
cyclone in the Western Region.

Likelihood of this low becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Sunday :Low
Monday :Low
Tuesday :Very Low
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