plenty of time left for Bopha to really wrap up...

ECMWF still developing this into a small but powerful typhoon, two words not normally used for WPAC systems, before slamming the Philippines...

any chance that this will still go further north rather than a more westward track?

Not likely with the ridge strengthening on top of it

LOL at the ADT

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 NOV 2012 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 3:56:03 N Lon : 149:24:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 978.3mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -25.4C Cloud Region Temp : -55.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Hey everyone, no longer live but you can still watch the playback. Myself Clark and James all joined in on this for an hour. Lots and lots of information and discussion, our next one will be Saturday. So if any of you want to join in give me your google plus handle and you can jump in saturday!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... 3pkXqMNmsI

look at this guys...

I think Bopha is just getting ready for something, that west- southwestward track also happened to STY mike in 1990 - when Mike returned to its WNW track, it intensified rapidly and attained its peak intensity. lets see if it will do the same thing... I hate to bench mark , but I cant help myself. hehe

Dare I say eye in those microwave images.

Maybe ADT was onto something after all! It's looks pretty healthy to me. Latest ECM run misses Palau but is again bad news for eastern Viasayas, as if GFS 00z!

Edit: Impressive!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Now all of a sudden the models are in tight agreement in a track headed towards Eastern Visayas.

Well NOGAPS is off in his own little world there, but I:m sure it will come around.

Hey guys, Pat or PHWXenthusiast just uploaded a video on the latest on the storm if anyone wants to check it out.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... r-29-2012/

WTPQ20 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 03.5N 148.3E FAIR
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 04.5N 145.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 011200UTC 05.6N 141.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 021200UTC 06.7N 138.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

wsw? then it will lose more latitude. that STR is really squeezing Bopha.

Down to 50kts by the JTWC

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM
EAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM UNDERWENT A PERIOD OF SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, HOWEVER CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO REBUILD OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI AND THE PGTW FIX, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 0744Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
WHICH REVEALS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE WEAKENING TREND, WITH
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE OVERALL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD, ALTHOUGH THE
EQUATORWARD CHANNEL NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE ROBUST THAN THE POLEWARD
CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 8 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WITH
LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 26W HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 THEN
SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE MORE
POLEWARD, CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY
BEEN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH THE LONE OUTLIER BEING WBAR, WHICH
TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE OTHER AIDS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. LIGHT VWS, INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SST WILL ALLOW TS 26W TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 105 KNOTS. THE DYNAMIC MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//

The ragged eyewall indicates that Bopha is developing a banding eye, which may lead to some strengthening or may not, still nothing too impressive

in my opinion. this is definitely a typhoon...i've seen worser in the western hemisphere...

Remains 50 knots...

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 3.8N 147.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 3.8N 147.9E


PROGNOSTIC REASONING


WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 815 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR)
REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 0956Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE WITH A FAIRLY COMPACT AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
EIR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON 45 KNOT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES FROM
AUTOMATED TECHNIQUES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
OUTFLOW IS BECOMING LESS ROBUST DESPITE A POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD.
THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 8 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WITH LIGHT
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST)IS A VERY FAVORABLE 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TS 26W IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS
ORGANIZATION AT THIS LOW LATITUDE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 THEN
SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR. AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO GAIN
LATITUDE, CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH THE LONE OUTLIER BEING
WBAR, WHICH TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF THE OTHER AIDS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. LIGHT VWS, INCREASED
OUTFLOW, AND A FAVORABLE SST WILL ALLOW TS 26W TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS AT TAUS 96 AND 120. UNCERTAINTY
IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AT THE VERY LATE TAUS AND BEYOND DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE STR IN THE MODELS. NGPS AND GFDN ARE
MAINTAINING A STRONG STR, DRIVING THE SYSTEM INTO LUZON WHILE GFS,
AND ECMWF TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY DUE TO A WEAKER STR. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES
NOTED, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH WITH
FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICAL MODEL AGREEMENT OVERALL.//
NNNN

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 291256
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
1100 PM CHST THU NOV 29 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) MOVING INTO YAP STATE...

RESIDENTS OF NGULU IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA...AS WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.9 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
780 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
960 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING A
TYPHOON FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM POSITION...3.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
147.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM CHST.

$$

STANKO



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 291049
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST THU NOV 29 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) MOVING TOWARDS YAP STATE AND PALAU...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN FARAULEP AND WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.3 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
410 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
795 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
980 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS NOW MOVING WEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
TAKES BOPHA SOUTH OF NGULU AND THROUGH THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AT FARAULEP.

...WOLEAI AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH OF
WOLEAI FRIDAY NIGHT. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE
YAP EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
PRACTICE YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN AND IDENTIFY A SHELTER WHICH
WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE FRIDAY
NIGHT IF BOPHA TRACKS FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...BUT THE MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE STORM HAS LESSENED THE THREAT OF TYPHOON
CONDITIONS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SHORES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO
2 FEET MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...FARAULEP...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE YAP EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. PRACTICE YOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN AND IDENTIFY A SHELTER WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO
WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT IF BOPHA TRACKS
FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SHORES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF UP TO
1 FOOT MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM BOPHA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 3 AM CHST FRIDAY...OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

$$

STANKO

Multi-agency forecast tracks



I think an East Visayas hit is becoming more likely now, though after Visayas it is a question where this will end up. If I get this right, the GFS is kind of hinting an extratropical transition east of Luzon as the storm turns to the NE and makes a loop.