WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

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WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#1 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:17 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.0N 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER
LUZON. THIS MID TO UPPER-LEVEL STRUCTURE WAS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED
WITH INVEST 95W AND APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLED FROM THE LLCC AND MOVING
EXPEDITIOUSLY WESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINES. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WITH A 071316Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE INDICATE A TROPICAL
WAVE FORMING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS, WITH ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS
FROM A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MOVES OFFSHORE TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS LIGHT VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY RESOLVING THE DISTURBANCE VERY WELL
AT THIS TIME, SHOWING SLOW TO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#2 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:05 am

97W may be a Tropical Depression or even a Tropical Storm when it makes landfall over Central Vietnam within the next 48hrs...

Image

97W INVEST 171008 0600 15.6N 116.5E WPAC 20 1003
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:18 am

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 117.3E TO 17.6N 107.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 116.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 116.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY
264 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080636Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOW
FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE BROAD LLCC IS SLIGHTLY
OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTION. THE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH SIGNS OF THESE
WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. WIND SHEAR
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (5 TO 15 KNOTS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 CELSIUS). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND CONTINUING TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER
VIETNAM AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091000Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:09 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359
NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF BANDING CONVECTION LOOSELY ORGANIZED
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT SHOWING IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 25 KNOTS WHICH
BASED ON LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY ISLANDS AND SHIPS
TRANSITING THROUGH THE REGION. OBSERVATIONS FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE MUCH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FUNNELING THROUGH THE
LUZON STRAIT, BUT AT THIS TIME ARE NOT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
INDUCING STEADY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RAPID
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION, WIND SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE AND SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 23W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A WELL-
ESTABLISHED MID-TO-LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
EAST CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST, GUIDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TD 23W
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE VERY WARM WATER OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF VIETNAM AROUND
TAU 30. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY
TAU 48. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BOTH
TRACK AND SPEED, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#5 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:55 pm

JMA also now expecting a Tropical Storm...

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#6 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:45 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:JMA also now expecting a Tropical Storm...

Image

Got it! Khanun!
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I am an Indonesian who likes TC's alot recently. May i join in the discussion? Also i am big FAN of FORCE THIRTEEN! :D

But thanks to it please beware of my judgement if i am crusading these names to retirement (Like Harvey, Haitang, etc.). That could be incredibly offensive and please remove my posts if it's offensive as i said before. Ugh... :double:

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:52 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
151 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
OF HAINAN ISLAND WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) AND
A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 36 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-29
CELSIUS). TD 23W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS
CENTERED IN THE EAST CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. TD 23W
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 12. LIMITED TIME OVER WATER AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL PREVENT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. TD 23W WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF HAINAN ISLAND AND MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM BEFORE
TAU 24 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR THE
JTWC FORECAST IS HIGH.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:55 am

TXPQ27 KNES 090350
TCSWNP

A. 23W (NONAME)

B. 09/0230Z

C. 16.6N

D. 110.8E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING. MET
IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 4:59 am

Image

SATCON is at 35 knots now. I've seen Atlantic systems more unimpressive than this getting a name.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#10 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:54 am

:uarrow: What ATL systems are more unimpressive than this while having recon proving that they are tropical storms? Why would you say these systems are more unimpressive than this?
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#11 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:03 am

NotoSans wrote::uarrow: What ATL systems are more unimpressive than this while having recon proving that they are tropical storms? Why would you say these systems are more unimpressive than this?


People sometimes treat the tropics as a battle for pride. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#12 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:15 am

I won't be surprised if JTWC upgrades this into TS and JMA names this.
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I am an Indonesian who likes TC's alot recently. May i join in the discussion? Also i am big FAN of FORCE THIRTEEN! :D

But thanks to it please beware of my judgement if i am crusading these names to retirement (Like Harvey, Haitang, etc.). That could be incredibly offensive and please remove my posts if it's offensive as i said before. Ugh... :double:

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#13 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:46 am

Image
Vinh radar
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:22 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
128 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAGGED BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). DETERMINING THE EXACT CENTER HAS BEEN CHALLENGING,
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE LARGE SPREAD IN AVAILABLE FIX ESTIMATES. RECENT
PASSES BY ASCAT AND OSCAT (STILL UNDER TESTING AND EVALUATION)
PROVIDED SOME DETAIL OF THE OVERALL STRUCTURE, WITH ENHANCED (25-30
KNOT) EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CHINESE COAST, AND WEAK (5-
10 KNOT) WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE TRACK WAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH BASED ON THIS DATA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, AND SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM STATION
48846 (12 KNOTS FROM 50 DEGREES AND 1001.5 MB MSLP) AND STATION
48848 FURTHER SOUTH (1-2 KNOTS FROM 230 DEGREES AND 1000.2 MB MSLP).
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SCATTEROMETRY DATA, HOWEVER, THE PEAK WINDS ARE CONSTRAINED TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF TONKIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS WELL
ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
CONSTRAINED DUE TO 20+ KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). TD 23W IS TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE ENHANCED MARITIME WINDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR THE JTWC FORECAST IS HIGH.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#15 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:22 pm

Tropical Depression 23W has made landfall over Central Vietnam this Tuesday morning local time...

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#16 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:27 pm

It failed to intensify into a TS...

Image
TD
Issued at 00:55 UTC, 10 October 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 10 October>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N18°00' (18.0°)
E106°00' (106.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:01 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 18.4N 105.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 105.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.3N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.5N 98.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT, GUSTS 020 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 104.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156
NM SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MADE
LANDFALL SOUTH OF VINH, VIETNAM, WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION NOW OVER LAND. THE 100000Z OBSERVATION AT VINH SHOWED
WINDS WERE 6 KNOTS FROM 110 DEGREES, WITH A MSLP OF 998.9 MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 30 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. TD
23W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN
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