WPAC: Invest 90W

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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WPAC: Invest 90W

#1 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:29 pm

Near the equator, east of the southern Malay Peninsula / Singapore.

90W INVEST 180111 1200 1.0N 107.5E WPAC 15 NA

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: Invest 90W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:25 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.6N
108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKLY DEFINED AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELDS
ASSOCIATED WITH 90W BECOME A CLOSED CIRCULATION QUICKLY AND HAVE
VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST DUE TO A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BUT POSSIBLY
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: Invest 90W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:59 am

JTWC upgraded to MEDIUM and remained MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 1.6N 108.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.3N 107.5E, APPROXIMATELY 214
NM EAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT
DEFINED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN
112310Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO A BROAD LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE MIXED AS TO HOW THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK BUT INDICATE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
IT WILL TRACK TO THE WEST AND INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: Invest 90W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:01 am

Image

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.6N
108.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.1N 107.7E, APPROXIMATELY 231 NM EAST
OF SINGAPORE, MALAYSIA. ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
MOSTLY FLARING CONVECTION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL TURNING. THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING IN NATURE AND MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
BACK OFF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. A 130240Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS STRAIGHT LINE FLOW DUE TO THE COLD SURGE EVENT IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), BUT HAS
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE MIXED AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
BUT INDICATE THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MALAYSIA PENINSULA AND DRIFT WEST AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: Invest 90W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:59 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 1.1N 107.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.9N 108.3E, APPROXIMATELY 266
NM EAST OF SINGAPORE, MALAYSIA. ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS MOSTLY FLARING CONVECTION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL TURNING. THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING IN NATURE AND MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TO MOVE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTH AS THE SURGE EVENT WEAKENS. A
132052Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A SLIGHTLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE MIXED AS TO THE DIRECTION THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK,
BUT INDICATES THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MALAYSIA PENINSULA AND DRIFT WEST AS THE COLD SURGE
EVENT WEAKENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: Invest 90W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:00 am

Image

90W INVEST 180114 0600 2.3N 107.8E WPAC 20 1007

Exposed galore.
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: Invest 90W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:02 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 1.1N 107.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.3N 108.2E, APPROXIMATELY 285
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE, MALAYSIA. ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. A 150156Z ASCAT
METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE PULAU SUBI-BESAR
ISLAND IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW WIND SHEAR (10-15
KNOTS), GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE MIXED AS TO THE DIRECTION THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK, BUT INDICATES THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MALAYSIA PENINSULA AND DRIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: Invest 90W

#8 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:00 am

Gone... dissipated for quite some time now.
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