WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#101 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:53 pm

Yeah, dry air looks to be the big culprit. Looks like most of the inflow is coming in bands on the north side of the circulation. Soundings characteristic of the airmass in Yap and Guam have quite a bit of dry air from 700 mb up.

Image

Image

Image

(Too lazy to do SHARPpy soundings right now)
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#102 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:20 am

Image
Holding alot of rain this vort. Maybe a potential flood /mudslide risk downstream.
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:33 am

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 FEB 2018 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 7:11:50 N Lon : 129:32:17 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1005.3mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.9 3.1

Center Temp : -64.1C Cloud Region Temp : -52.3C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 70km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.5 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#104 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:58 am

WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SANBA)
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 806 NM EAST OF
PUERTO PRINCESA, PALAWAN, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
UNDERGONE ANOTHER CYCLIC CONVECTIVE FLARE WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OR DEGREE OF WRAP INTO A DEFINED LLC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLC FEATURE IN THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER
END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VWS; HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO WARM (29C)
SSTS, IS PROVIDING AMPLE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TS
02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 02W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES THROUGH TAU 12. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, THE STR WILL SLIGHTLY BUILD
AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MINDANAO JUST PRIOR TO TAU 24. LAND INTERACTION WILL
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND BY TAU 36, IT WILL BE REDUCED TO A
35-KNOT TS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SULU SEA, PALAWAN, AND INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS).
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS SANBA WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE SCS TOWARD SOUTHERN VIETNAM IN RESPONSE TO A RECEDING STR.
MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN THE SCS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL TO MID PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
AFTERWARD, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:44 am

It might not even be a tropical storm right now.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:54 am

1900hurricane wrote:It might not even be a tropical storm right now.

Image

30 kt barbs, yes considering they showed 25 kts yesterday at most. 35 kts is the max and is still plausible. This could begin recovery since the shear has begun to subside. Looks more like a TS now, looked brokenhearted earlier

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:00 am

Conditions have become even more favorable

02W
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W 12:00UTC 12February2018
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from JTWC) :
Latitude : 7:28:04 N
Longitude : 128:51:15 E
Intensity (MSLP) : 1000.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 889.3 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 110.7 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 4.7 m/s ( 9.1 kts)
Direction : 180.8 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF VF VF VF

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.5 -6.0 - -3.0 -9.0 - -4.5 -12.0 - -6.0
N -1.5 - +1.5 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.5 - +4.5 -6.0 - +6.0
U +1.5 - +3.0 +3.0 - +6.0 +4.5 - +9.0 +6.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0

- Current shear charts for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN can be found at :
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
- Additional information about this product can be found at :
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/misc ... s.shr.html
- Contact : Chris Velden (chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu)
CIMSS Internal Code : Basin - westpac Storm - 02W
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:37 pm

Looks decently organized at the moment, too bad the Philippines are going to shred it apart.
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:27 pm

I'd put the center here, roughly 9ºN, 127.5ºE. Cloud lines are only very faint south of the center though.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:35 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Looks decently organized at the moment, too bad the Philippines are going to shred it apart.

It isn't going to shred apart if it tracks over the Visayan waters and Sulu Sea, which is likely considering this is turning to the WNW to NW

The winds are getting strong now here in Cebu alongside the rainfall
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#111 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:32 pm

Looks to have made landfall in NE Mindanao.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#112 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:46 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#113 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:03 am

Image
Image
TS 1802 (Sanba)
Issued at 06:40 UTC, 13 February 2018


<Analysis at 06 UTC, 13 February>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°40' (9.7°)
E125°00' (125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 330 km (180 NM)
SE 170 km (90 NM)
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby euro6208 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:10 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SANBA) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CONVECTION, MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TS 02W. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 130613Z 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
WHICH SHOWS WEAK BANDING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS HEDGED BETWEEN A 130155Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS SOME 30
KNOT WIND BARBS AND A 121656Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES ARE FAVORABLE, RANGING BETWEEN 27 TO 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. HOWEVER, TS 02W IS NOW INTERACTING WITH LAND WHICH IS
LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. TS 02W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD BEFORE IT ROUNDS THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION THROUGH
TAU 12 WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TS 02W TO 30 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 24, TS
02W WILL TRACK OVER PALAWAN AND THEN INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
STR WILL BEGIN TO STEER TS 02W ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU
36. INTERACTION WITH WARM WATERS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 35 KNOTS
BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TS 02W WILL MOVE INTO COOLER, UNFAVORABLE
WATERS AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BEYOND 72 HOURS, TS 02W WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
NEAR 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER TS 02W TOWARDS VIETNAM. TS 02W WILL WEAKEN TO 25 JUST PRIOR
TO MAKING LANDFALL IN VIETNAM. AS TS 02W CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD OVER LAND IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BY TAU 120 WILL
DISSIPATE WHILE OVER VIETNAM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS, WHICH TRACKS TS 02W TO THE
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Depression

#115 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:54 pm

Pretty poopy.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Depression

#116 Postby euro6208 » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:12 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SANBA)
WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437 NM
SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE WEST WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION IS
IMPROVING AS TD 02W CONSOLIDATES AT THE SURFACE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY,
HOWEVER, THE EXACT CENTER REMAINS ILLUSIVE AS AGENCY SATELLITE
FIXES DIFFER BY AS MUCH AS 120 NM. A 132231Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE
SHOWS A LOW REFLECTIVITY BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO AN AREA OF
CENTRAL CONVECTION SUGGESTIVE OF LLCC PLACEMENT, AND WHEN
EXTRAPOLATED FORWARD IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS, WHICH IS BASED ON AN
RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). TD 02W IS POSITIONED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING A
MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIFFLUENCE ON THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE
AROUND 27 CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS OVER THE WARM OPEN WATER OF THE SULU SEA. PEAK INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO REACH 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WHILE IN AN AREA OF HIGH
DIFFLUENCE AND WARM SSTS. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
TD 02W ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 36 TD 02W WILL TRACK OVER INCREASINGLY
COOLER SSTS. UNSUPPORTIVE SSTS, WORKING IN CONCERT WITH PERSISTENT
WIND SHEAR WILL UNDOUBTEDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 48. TD 02W
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS A REMNANT TROPICAL LOW AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE EXACT SYSTEM TRACK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION IS AMPLIFIED IN FURTHER FORECAST POSITIONS.
OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Depression

#117 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:21 am

Image
TD
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 14 February 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 14 February>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°00' (9.0°)
E120°00' (120.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

#118 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:54 am

02W SANBA 180215 1200 9.1N 118.2E WPAC 20 1007

Image
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Re: WPAC: SANBA - Tropical Depression

#119 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:08 pm

Still a Tropical Depression.

Image

WWJP25 RJTD 151800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 964 HPA
AT 47N 163E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 47N 163E TO 48N 168E 45N 171E.
WARM FRONT FROM 45N 171E TO 41N 173E 38N 173E.
COLD FRONT FROM 45N 171E TO 40N 166E 36N 160E 34N 152E 31N 142E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N 142E TO 31N 135E 28N 125E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 53N 168E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 980 HPA
AT 58N 179W BERING SEA MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING
OVER MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN WESTERN PART OF SEA OF JAPAN
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER EAST CHINA SEA NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 46N 125E ESE 10 KT.
LOW 994 HPA AT 56N 148E SSE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 09N 118E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 35N 122E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 38N 136E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 23N 144E EAST 25 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 32N 176E ESE 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

#120 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:43 am

JMA no longer has a TD in the weather map.

Image
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