WPAC: INVEST 96W

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WPAC: INVEST 96W

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 16, 2018 4:48 pm

Location: 19.3°N 113.5°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:49 pm

Another Mei-yu induced TC following TS 07W and Gaemi?

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:06 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.6N 114.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.1E, APPROXIMATELY
164 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A 170230Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATES THERE IS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A
NARROW SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY,
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM FROM THE LLCC. A 170226Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEPICTS THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NAVGEM IS THE ONLY OUTLIER AND INDICATES
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO
THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO AND
JGSM) TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND CHINA IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:24 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#5 Postby Alyono » Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:40 pm

7W was NOT in any way, shape, or form a TC
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 5:14 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:14 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.5N 114.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 117.0E, APPROXIMATELY
161 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK, DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTH. A 180724Z SSMIS 91GHZ 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THERE IS SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC AND A LACK OF
ORGANIZATION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WEAK OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SSTS (28-29C) WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW AND COOLER SSTS WHICH WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CHINA AND PASS THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT
WITH LITTLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:57 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.9N 117.0E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:13 am

Image

96W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 19, 2018:

Location: 26.4°N 119.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
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