WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

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WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:29 pm

92W INVEST 180709 0000 6.0N 152.0E WPAC 15 0


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:20 am

92W INVEST 180709 1200 6.8N 151.5E WPAC 15 1010


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:22 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:24 pm

92W INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 10, 2018:

Location: 6.7°N 148.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:26 pm

Discussion...
a few changes made to the forecast. An upper-level low is located to
the south of Guam. This upper-low generated a few thunderstorms over
the local area late Monday night and early this morning. With this
upper level feature in the area an isolated thunderstorm is possible
today. This upper low will move further west by tonight allowing the
chance of isolated thunderstorms to end.

Scatterometer imagery from Monday night showed a circulation just to
the southwest of Chuuk. Models show this circulation moving towards
the west then eventually northwest. While it will not directly pass
across the Marianas it may increase low-level convergence over the
local area. It will also cause the winds to become southeast the
second half of the week. Models also hint that this area will also
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
Marianas the second half of the week. There is still some uncertainty
to the possibility of scattered showers as some of the models depict
the shower coverage as patchy. At any rate there will be clouds
generated so added mostly cloudy skies to the forecast Wednesday
night through Saturday.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:20 am

Has support from NAVGEM, EURO, and GFS.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:01 pm

Scatterometer imagery from Tuesday night showed a circulation just to
the south of Guam near 11N145E. A surface trough extends from the
circulation to the northeast. Models show this circulation moving
towards the west then eventually northwest. While it will not
directly pass across the Marianas, the surface trough will move
across the local area. East winds today will become southeast tonight
with the passage of the trough. The trough itself and low-level
convergence in its wake will cause scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Marianas beginning after midnight tonight and
persisting through Friday.

A circulation east of Yap has persisted a
few days and is now near 10N144E. It will drift westward, likely
becoming the dominant system by late week. Ultimately, this pattern
will reinforce the monsoon flow and widespread showers across Palau
for the week, as well as bring showers back to Yap by Thursday or
Friday. Continued periods of heavy rain will promote an elevated
risk of mudslides.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:22 pm

Popping.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:57 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.5N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC).
THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 92W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND PERSISTENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29C) WILL AID FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. GLOBAL
MODELS FAVOR A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY IN TIME AND INTENSITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:57 am

EURO very robust on future Son-Tinh/Ampil. Luzon and Hong Hong lookout!

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:04 am

NAVGEM through the Luzon strait.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:55 am

A Sleeper?

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#13 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:09 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:53 pm

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92W INVEST
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 11, 2018:

Location: 12.0°N 142.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:17 pm

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Ouch if the EURO is right.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:57 am

Up to MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 141.8E, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 120028Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVER
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 120028Z
ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 5-
10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 20-30 KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED NEAR
THE OUTER PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE LATER TAUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:34 am

TXPQ22 KNES 120327
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 12/0230Z

C. 14.1N

D. 140.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.0 MET=1.0 PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#18 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:47 am

Poleward during the next 24/48hrs, then making a westward turn in the general direction of Extreme Northern Luzon or Luzon Strait.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:25 am

TXPQ22 KNES 120917
TCSWNP
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 12/0830Z

C. 14.9N

D. 141.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR TIME. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED
USING 4 KM IR DATA. SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING
ON A LOG-10 SCALE. DT=1.0 MET=1.0 PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:32 am

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