WPAC: JONGDARI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Well EURO absorbs the P.I system and sends this into mainland Japan next...

[euro6208]

GFS crazy...

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

This shouldn't be classified right now.

[Alyono]

This shouldn't be classified right now.

it's not classified officially. Thread title is not accurate

[mrbagyo]

What a mess

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 221654Z ATMS 88 GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A VERY BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS AND SOME INDICATION OF
FORMATIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW OF T1.5
(25 KNOTS) BASED ON A 221143Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION OF TD 15W WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 CELSIUS). TD 15W IS TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER JAPAN (TO THE NORTHWEST).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE.
B. TD 15W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. DESPITE THE LARGE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, ALL MODELS DEPICT A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. BEYOND
TAU 48, THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN TD 15W TURNING RIGHT TO
BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEAST. OF NOTE, A LARGE NUMBER OF MEMBERS IN THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE CONTROL MEMBER
ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IS MASSIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH FOLLOWS THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO
THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. TD 15W IS FORECASTED TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS
BY TAU 120 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

EURO has Mainland Japan while GFS has Taiwan in it's sights...

[Twisted-core]

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

check out the dry air streaming down past japen and spreading across the top off the MT.

[euro6208]

Big change in track. Peak close to a Cat 3...

WDPN35 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
381 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TD 15W HAS A POORLY ORGANIZED CLOUD
STRUCTURE WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 230600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING AN AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER LOW LEVEL BANDING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW AN ADT CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) AND WILL
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 15W IS
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THERE
HAS ALSO BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
SPECIFICALLY BEYOND TAU 48. ECMWF AND GFS NOW AGREE THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE A
DEEP LAYER CUT-OFF LOW BY TAU 72. THE DEEP LAYER LOW WILL RETROGRADE
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE TD 15W TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
NAVGEM MODEL DOES NOT CUT OFF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND INDICATES THAT TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WITH THESE TWO SCENARIOS.
B. TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR AND NER THROUGH TAU 24 AND STEADILY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, TD 15W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING NER LOCATED TO THE EAST. TD 15W
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT PRIOR TO TAU 72,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A WIDE POSSIBILITY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING
FROM A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS TAIPEI, TAIWAN TO A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD TOKYO, JAPAN. THE RANGE IN ECMWF
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS BY TAU 120 IS NEARLY 1200NM. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE THE
RETROGRADING CUT-OFF LOW CAUSING TD 15W TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. IN
THIS SCENARIO TD 15W WOULD THEN TRACK AROUND THE CUT-OFF LOW BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST STARTING NEAR TAU 120. DUE TO THE TWO DRASTICALLY
DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

GFS and EURO now in almost perfect agreement on bringing this very near Tokyo...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 524
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TD 15W CONTINUING TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE, BUT STARTING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF NASCENT CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE MOST RECENT THREE
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
ANALYSIS OF THE EIR IMAGERY AND A 231638 AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25
KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF A 231055Z OSCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT TD 15W LIES IN A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH A
WEAK TUTT CELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WESTERN END OF THE TUTT ITSELF,
WHICH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 15W. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE LIES JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND COMBINED
WITH THE TUTT, IS PROVIDING A LIMITED EASTERLY OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
SOMEWHAT HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AT THIS STAGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
FAVORABLE (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND SSTS IN THE RANGE OF 30 DEG CELSIUS
ARE ALL SUPPORTIVE OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION. TD 15W IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE JTWC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE RETROGRADING DEEP LAYER CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO
WHICH WILL ALLOW TD 15W TO TRACK ALONG A TRACK TOWARDS IWO TO, THEN
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS MAINLAND JAPAN AFTER TAU 120. BASED ON THE
INCREASING AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS IMPROVING
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OVERALL FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
24, THEN TURN MORE SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD THEREAFTER THROUGH TAU 48
AS THE STEERING NER FLATTENS TO A MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU
48, AS LOW VWS AND HIGH SSTS ARE OFFSET BY THE LACK OF A WELL-
DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BY TAU 48, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PINCHES OFF A CUT-OFF LOW WELL EAST OF HONSHU, WHICH DIVES
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF JAPAN. BY TAU 72, TD 15W BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THIS CUT-OFF LOW AND WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. A FASTER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS TD 15W TAPS
INTO A MORE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW. ALL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SCENARIO, BUT STILL SHOWS A LARGE
SPREAD AFTER TAU 48. NAVGEM AND COTC ARE INDICATING A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED AND FURTHER WEST TRACK, WHILE GFS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
MUCH FASTER AND FURTHER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE, WITH A
210 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. IN LIGHT OF THE RELATIVELY HIGH MODEL
SPREAD AT TAU 72, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW WILL REACH
ITS SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT EAST OF TOKYO AND THEN MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
JAPAN AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN BY TAU 120. A DEEP STR
SIMULTANEOUSLY DEVELOPS NEAR 40N 155E, AND THE TWO COMBINED FORCES
WILL TURN TD 15W TO A NORTH THEN NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 120. TD
15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 96, PEAKING AT
85 KNOTS UNDER ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VWS AND HIGH SSTS.
INTENSITY WILL LEVEL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE
SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW AND SSTS ARE COUNTERED BY INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND TAU 72 WITH LARGE ALONG
AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD. THE AFUM AND UKMET SOLUTIONS INDICATE A VERY
RAPID AND SHARP TURN TOWARDS THE WEST WITH LANDFALL NEAR KYOTO,
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A MUCH SLOWER AND NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY
AND THE REMAINING MODELS LYING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN. THERE IS AN OVER
700 NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE OUTLIERS, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Starting to look more like an actual tropical depression now.

[euro6208]

HWRF even more stronger...strengthens this to a Cat 4.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TD
Issued at 04:05 UTC, 24 July 2018

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 24 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N18°05' (18.1°)
E137°05' (137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 25 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°30' (19.5°)
E137°30' (137.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432
NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A COMPACT, APPROXIMATELY 120NM
DIAMETER, CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
IMPROVED CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 240616Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
FROM KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A NARROW TUTT POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 15W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 15W IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED NER, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. DUE TO THE MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, SPECIFICALLY THE LACK OF STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO ABOUT 50 KNOTS BY
TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TD 15W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS AND THE STR TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AND RECEDES WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY AT A GREATER RATE AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DEEPENS
SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72
DUE TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AND THE GENERAL TRACK
ORIENTATION. NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC ARE THE WESTERN OUTLIERS AND SHOW
AN UNLIKELY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD SLOW TRACK INTO THE STR TO THE
NORTH. GFS AND HWRF ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS AND SHOW A SLOW BUT
PLAUSIBLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS FASTER TRACK SPEEDS AND A TRACK OVER IWO TO.
DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A COMPLEX, EVOLVING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TD 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE EASTERN
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD LOW
POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
DURING THIS PHASE TRANSITIONS FROM THE NER TO A STRONG STR
POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. TO RE-EMPHASIZE, THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRAJECTORY AND TIMING
OF THIS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE TOWARD AND OVER HONSHU. THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS THE JGSM, ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THE MOST REALISTIC,
VIABLE SOLUTIONS AND IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
TD 15W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND INTERACTION WITH LAND.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TS 1812 (Jongdari)
Issued at 19:25 UTC, 24 July 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 24 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°20' (20.3°)
E136°35' (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 25 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°25' (21.4°)
E137°00' (137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 25 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°20' (22.3°)
E137°50' (137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 26 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°00' (24.0°)
E140°35' (140.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 27 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°10' (30.2°)
E142°40' (142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 480 km (260 NM)