WPAC: SOULIK - Post-Tropical

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/YFCzlhY
looks to be intensifying nice convention in all quads.

[1900hurricane]

DT appears to be 5.0 (eye embedded in light grey and no eye adjustment for a large eye), which would correspond to a 90 kt intensity. SATCON is also hanging out around 90 kt.

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 562 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
AN APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WIDE RAGGED EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN EXTRAPOLATED 192118Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A CENTRAL DIMPLE FEATURE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS, AT THE
HIGH END OF MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T4.5-T5.0 (77-90 KTS), AND SLIGHTLY UNDER A 192118Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 94 KTS. REDUCED OUTFLOW HAS LED TO GRADUAL WEAKENING
DESPITE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS). TY 22W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TURNING NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE STR AXIS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48, AND WHILE THE SPREAD INCREASES AFTERWARDS, SOLUTIONS HAVE
CONVERGED SOMEWHAT, WITH 100NM MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HEDGED ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND PLACED CLOSE TO
THE HWRF SOLUTION, WHICH PREDICTS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU
24-48 AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IMPROVES POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. BY TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND LANDFALL ON THE KOREAN
PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO START A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD BEYOND TAU 48 DURING THE RECURVE
PROCESS.
C. TY 22W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 72 AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 20 KTS BY TAU 120 DUE TO HIGH VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION, WHILE ALSO BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 120.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RECURVES AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.//
NNNN

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/YnCqyfW

https://imgur.com/7UK88GN
00z ec track

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON AN APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WIDE EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE APPEARS ANNULAR WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
100 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY OF T5.5 (102
KTS) AND A 192307Z CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 100 KTS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED WHILE LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WHILE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 CELSIUS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TY
22W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN ROUNDING
THE STR AXIS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48 BUT SPREAD BEGINS TO GROW AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. BECAUSE
THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN ON AN ANNULAR APPEARANCE, THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU
48, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING THE CYCLONE. OVERALL, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, SOLELY DUE TO THE WIDE
SPREAD BEYOND TAU 48 AS 22W RECURVES.
C. TY 22W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 72 AS IT
INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGH VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY 22W, FALLING TO AN
INTENSITY OF 20 KTS AS IT BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 120.
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY DURING AND AFTER RECURVATURE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Mighty big eye...Annular?

Looks more intense than Lane yet is weaker because of no recon?

[euro6208]

Most models take this north of iCyclone's location. Amami Oshima...

[1900hurricane]

I think Josh doesn't have too much to worry about. Even if the exact center passes to his north a little, he's still likely to penetrate the eye due to the massive core size.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1031334643822419969

[Twisted-core]

What ever happened to the jma recon.

[euro6208]

What ever happened to the jma recon.

Last i read about it is they are restarting this year. Disappointing...

[mrbagyo]

Eye temp is now dancing between 17.5 to 18.5 Celsius.

[1900hurricane]

I really hope it can maintain the unbroken large eye structure long enough to get some surface obs out of the Ryukyus. I'm admittedly very curious about the actual intensity.

[mrbagyo]

Now starting to creep into radar's range.

[TheAustinMan]

Wonderful shot this morning from the Himawari 8 satellite of Typhoon Soulik as dawn breaks over the Ryukyu Islands. The large eye makes for quite the imposing shot as the clouds along the western eyewall reflect the rising sun.

76 kB. Source: Himawari-8 Real Time / NICT

[1900hurricane]

This is the largest clear eye I can remember seeing since at least Champi '15, and this may be even slightly larger than that one.

[euro6208]

WDPN35 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ANNULAR-LIKE SYSTEM WITH A 45NM LARGE EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 201700Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES SOME EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE ANNULUS DUE TO LOW NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KT) VWS, AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT 28-29 CELSIUS. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SPREAD BEGINS TO GROW AS THE CYCLONE STARTS
ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 48. BECAUSE OF THE ANNULAR
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SYSTEM, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS
AND LAND INTERACTION OVER KOREA ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD OVER THE
KOREAN PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72 AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS WITH SEVERAL MODELS (AFUM,UKMO,
GFS) ERRONEOUSLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE POLAR
JET INTO A LARGE OCCLUDED LOW OVER NORTHEAST CHINA. THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS NAVGEM, AEMN, ECMF, HWRF AND JGSM, WHICH INDICATE A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD VLADIVOSTOK. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1031693467691483139

[euro6208]

Closing in on Amami...

[1900hurricane]

Looks like there are some hints it may be trying to enter eyewall replacement again because why not.