WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

RAW T# to the moon

[Hayabusa]

2018OCT23 164000 4.7 973.2 82.2 4.7 5.5 7.6 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -3.93 -83.32 EYE 10 IR 11.5 12.63 -149.12 ARCHER HIM-8 17.7
The eye just need to go the positives

[1900hurricane]

!!!

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1054784315215626240

[Hayabusa]

At this rate we are looking at a likely cat 4 super typhoon and possible cat 5 tracking over the Marianas, when was the last time did this happen? Pongsona comes to mind but I am talking about the overall Marianas a cat 4 sty- cat 5 passing over them

[NotoSans]

Another typical example showing how the ADT algorithm biases towards system with deeper convection despite having only a ragged eye.

[supercane4867]

Pretty much a good candidate for 170kt

[bob rulz]

Wow. Last time I looked at this it was a strong tropical storm. Unbelievable intensification!

[Hayabusa]

At this rate we are looking at a likely cat 4 super typhoon and possible cat 5 tracking over the Marianas, when was the last time did this happen? Pongsona comes to mind but I am talking about the overall Marianas a cat 4 sty- cat 5 passing over them

Typhoon Melor and Typhoon Choi-wan of 2009, but I am not sure if they passed over the Marianas as a super typhoon category

[Hayabusa]

2018OCT23 171000 4.9 969.2 87.4 4.9 5.4 7.6 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 1.67 -82.78 EYE 11 IR 11.5 12.70 -149.02 ARCHER HIM-8 17.7

[SouthDadeFish]

This is one of the more impressive periods of intensification I’ve seen. That microwave pass shows the storm is likely much stronger than what it is currently being analyzed at. I see little, if nothing at all, in the environment to prevent the storm from intensifying to 150+ kt. Very impressive. Intensity will likely be dictated by internal dynamics soon. The multiple rain bands suggest an ERC may not be too far away, although I don’t see any signs of one beginning yet.

[Hayabusa]

Eye is still trying to fully clear itself out as it wobbles from being seen on IR and then not

[Hayabusa]

JMA at 18z 85 kt, 950 hPa

[Hayabusa]

TPPN10 PGTW 231835

A. TYPHOON 31W (YUTU)

B. 23/1800Z

C. 12.74N

D. 148.97E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.5. MET YIELDS A 5.0 AND PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO
CONSTRAINT OF + 1.0 TNO CHANGE OVER 06 HOURS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MILAM

[Hayabusa]

31W YUTU 181023 1800 12.6N 148.9E WPAC 110 941

[Hayabusa]

2018OCT23 191000 5.4 955.6 99.6 5.2 5.0 7.7 1.3T/6hr ON OFF OFF OFF 3.24 -82.52 EYE 11 IR 58.3 13.00 -148.72 ARCHER HIM-8 17.9
Just 0.1 more and would be tied with Kong-rey's T raw peak

[Hayabusa]

150 kt peak

[euro6208]

What the? Now expecting a near Cat 5 for Saipan?!

WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED 23-NM
EYE AS FEEDER BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A HIGHLY COMPACT AND DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR SLANT AND
SUPERIMPOSED OVER A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 231734Z 37GHZ SSMIS PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM THE PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS AND T5.5/102KTS, RESPECTIVELY, AND
REFLECTS THE CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 31W IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 31W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR RI WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OF
130 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS, THEN A MORE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 150 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING UP TO 150 NM BY TAU 72. A NOTABLE
RIGHT OF ENVELOPE OUTLIER IS HWRF. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST LEFT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY POLEWARD TRACK OFFERED BY HWRF.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY YUTU WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A COL
AREA AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. VWS, SST, AND OHC VALUES WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL DIMINISH NEAR THE
COL, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WEAKENING TO 130 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT TO OVER 680 NM BY
TAU 120 WITH CTCX ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE OFFERING A
SHARP AND EARLY RECURVATURE AND EGRR AND AFUM ON THE LEFT MARGIN
OFFERING A FLAT WESTWARD TRACK. IN VIEW OF THE WIDE SPREAD, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THAT IS LAID JUST LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
UNLIKELY SHARP POLEWARD RECURVATURE OFFERED BY CTCX.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

[euro6208]

12Z GFS has a 899 mb Yutu right over Saipan.

[euro6208]