WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 190215 1800 5.3N 167.2E WPAC 15 1005

More convection popping near the center.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has a recent ASCAT?

[TyphoonNara]

Does anyone has a recent ASCAT?

Here you go.



From the AScAT scan, we can say 92W still need some time to organize. Some 25 knots flags are present though.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N
166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM EAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A FULLY-
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 160244Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 151012Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A VERY
WEAK, ELONGATED LLC. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL BE
ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRACK WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[TyphoonNara]

[TyphoonNara]

EURO is strengthening this to 953mb at the end of the run.

[euro6208]

UKMET also going crazy...

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 4.2N 160.8E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 19.02.2019 4.2N 160.8E WEAK

12UTC 19.02.2019 4.5N 158.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.02.2019 5.2N 157.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.02.2019 6.4N 156.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.02.2019 8.0N 153.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.02.2019 8.9N 151.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.02.2019 9.2N 149.0E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[euro6208]

EURO is strengthening this to 953mb at the end of the run.

Less threat to Guam i see. Our neighbors could be in for a ride...

[euro6208]

06Z GFS also has the same thinking...

[euro6208]

Invest 92W is still there in eastern Micronesia, with clouds and
showers across Kosrae east-northeastward into the Marshall Islands.
It is difficult to pinpoint a center, but the visible satellite loop
suggests a broad center east of Kosrae around 5N and 166E. Infra-red
satellite shows only limited convection mainly west of the center,
apparently being sheared to the west by upper-level winds. The models
all seem overly aggressive in developing this system, especially the
GFS, which produces a tropical storm by Tuesday morning south of
Pohnpei. But currently 92W is not well-organized, upper winds are
not particularly favorable, and soundings from Pohnpei and Kwajalein
show dry air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. And from
a climatological point of view, February is the least likely month
for tropical cyclone development, especially as shown in the GFS.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/ptccfeed/status/1096655171675840512

[cycloneye]

JMA adds Low Pressure:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 170E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[1900hurricane]

Does anyone has a recent ASCAT?

Here's one that's less than three hours old.



While still open to the east, it does appear that a circulation is beginning to develop near 3ºN, 167ºE.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF much more weaker than GFS and in it's past couple of runs.

[TyphoonNara]

GFS is still pretty robust on the system.

[TyphoonNara]

Latest ASCAT scan.



You can see a closed circulation at around 2°N and 166°E.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 166.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.2N 166.4E, APPROXIMATELY 271
NM SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER AND
AROUND THE LLC. A 170442Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
SPOTTED DEEP CONVECTION CONSTITUTING POSSIBLE FORMATIVE BANDING. A
162228Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WEAK, ELONGATED LLC
SURROUNDED BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL
TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE CURVING TO THE
NORTH AND BEGINNING QUICKER INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[TyphoonNara]

GFS is forecasting a 900- storm.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1096284141757247488