WPAC: INVEST 92W

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#41 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 11, 2019 8:54 am

The tropical disturbance near Pohnpei is expected to move in the
direction of the local area. Models are starting to come into an
agreement on the track the disturbance will take when it is near the
Marianas. GFS always had it passing south of Guam Tuesday night. The
latest GFS run now shows the disturbance passing east of the Marianas
at that time. ECMWF is also taking it just east of the local islands
...although closer than GFS...on Wednesday night. JMA and ICON keep
it east of the Marianas passing the local islands Wednesday night.
CMC has it passing over Saipan on Wednesday night. The trend in the
models is that the circulation should at least pass east of Guam. The
models have tended to agree on keeping the system weak. Rain
associated with the system also has great uncertainty. Most models
keep the rain close to the disturbance. If the disturbance does go
east there may be little rain over the local area.
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Tailspin
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#42 Postby Tailspin » Sun May 12, 2019 5:23 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 121430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/121430Z-130600ZMAY2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZMAY2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 153.7E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



dismal
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#43 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 13, 2019 5:14 am

Just like that. GONE from BT...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#44 Postby Hayabusa » Wed May 15, 2019 5:47 am

WWJP27 RJTD 150600
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 150E WEST SLOWLY.


If this invest was in the ATL or EPAC, GFS forecasting failing in the < 7 day range, the GFS would've received a large amount of criticism already.
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