WPAC: KALMAEGI - Post-Tropical

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aspen
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby aspen » Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:09 pm

I don’t think that has a closed center anymore. It looks less and less like a tropical cyclone as the day goes on.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:03 pm

UKMET still poleward... either UKMET is doing an excellent job tracking Kalmaegi or fail horribly.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby MarioProtVI » Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:08 am

I have my doubts this was even a TC at all. Poorly defined circulation center that was well removed from convection early on and ASCAT didn’t provide much help either, just a broad and likely not closed LLC. Would declassify in post and remove from database as this basically is Colin 2016 from the Atlantic after it dissipated in the Gulf.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:41 am

I know it doesn't look good, but that seems a bit harsh. Recent SCATSAT seems to support at least a 25-30 kt TD.

Image
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:08 am

Image
TS 1926 (Kalmaegi)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 15 November 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 15 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°50' (16.8°)
E126°20' (126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 16 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°50' (16.8°)
E124°35' (124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 17 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°30' (17.5°)
E123°00' (123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 18 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°40' (18.7°)
E120°40' (120.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 19 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°55' (16.9°)
E117°50' (117.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 430 km (230 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 20 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°35' (13.6°)
E112°10' (112.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 600 km (325 NM)
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:22 am

I think it is trying to do something interesting now.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:31 am

WDPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED, DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED FROM AN ELONGATED, RAGGED, LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC). A
150634Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SCATTERED, FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED
AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0
(30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH A GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WARM SST (29
DEGREES CELSIUS) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, OFFSET BY LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DUE TO OPPOSING
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. TD 27W IS LOCATED IN A LOW
STEERING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED
BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 27W WILL MEANDER WESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM
AND UKMET, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW TD 27W TAKING A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AT
TAU 36 AND SKIRTING ALONG THE NORTHERLY TIP OF LUZON AROUND TAU 72.
DUE TO AN OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TD 27W IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AT TAU 48 BEFORE
DROPPING TO 40 KNOTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT PASSES ALONGSIDE
LUZON. BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK. IN THE NEAR TERM, 27W WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 50 KTS AT TAU 48 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THE
SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WATER. HOWEVER,
TOTAL INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED BY HIGH VWS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
GAINS STEERING BY A SECOND STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER SHEAR VALUES (30-40 KNOTS), WITH THE ADDITION
OF COLD, DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST, TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING BEFORE DISSIPATION AT TAU 120. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT
ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY AFTER TD 27W TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS BELOW THE MULTIMODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND HIGH VWS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:09 am

dexterlabio wrote:I think it is trying to do something interesting now.


Yup, looks like it's stacking its convection and LLC correctly now
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:04 pm

Image
WDPN32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD, ELONGATED, RAGGED, AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE EIR LOOP ALSO INDICATES THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE LOW CLOUD
ELEMENTS IN THE EIR LOOP INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35KTS FROM RJTD AND IS
SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
IMPROVED EIR SIGNATURE. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SSTS OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
COOL/DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURGE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS
QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN A COL
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND THE STR TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W WILL REMAIN QS OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. AFTERWARD, THE STR
TO THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. BETWEEN TAUS
48 AND 72, THE STR TO THE WEST WILL BUILD, REORIENT NORTHWARD, AND
GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN LUZON. THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL WEAK INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 50KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35KTS AFTER LANDFALL.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONG VWS, COLD/DRY SURGE,
AND LAND INTERACTION WILL GREATLY OFFSET THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND
ERODE THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY AND INTO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS KALMAEGI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE SECONDARY STR, NOW POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST, AND AROUND
TAU 84, EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE THE COLD/DRY NORTHERLY
SURGE IS MORE VIGOROUS. THIS, PLUS THE HIGH VWS, WILL RESULT IN
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY BROAD
AGREEMENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STORM MOTION IN THE COL
AND ACROSS THE RUGGED LUZON TERRAIN. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:47 pm

Now that would be really something if it happens

Image
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:48 pm

GFS wants typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:16 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#73 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:43 am

Image

The best it has looked so far.
Sun down would be interesting
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:35 am

Very broad circulation. The GFS and HWRF forecasts which show quick development seems way off. Latest(00Z) runs of both models have a typhoon by 00Z/06Z tomorrow.

Image
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:49 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I think it is trying to do something interesting now.


Maybe now it is really trying to do something. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby aspen » Sat Nov 16, 2019 2:49 pm

Kalmaegi is looking more like a tropical cyclone now. Best track is still at 35 kt, but now I think it has a chance of intensifying to low-end typhoon status like the GFS and HWRF are so adamant about.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby aspen » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:16 pm

Now up to 45 kt. She seems to be getting her act together.
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:02 pm

Lo and behold, typhoon intensity looks attainable.

Image
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#79 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:24 am

JTWC sees typhoon now this might be more interesting than the hyped 93W :roll:
Image
WDPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE OUT OF A QUASI-
STATIONARY (QS) STATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD ELEMENT TRACING IN THE MSI LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH A LOW CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANIMATION FROM CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE
IMPROVED CONDITION. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND COOL/DRY NORTHEASTERLY SURGE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA
OFFSET BY A VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SSTS. THE
CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARD,
ANOTHER STR TO THE WEST WILL BUILD, REORIENT NORTHWARD, AND GRADUALLY
STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON NEAR
TUGUEGARAO JUST BEFORE TAU 48, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH LUZON BEFORE
EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEFORE TAU 72. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65KTS BY TAU 36
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL
ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS KALMAEGI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE SECONDARY STR IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WHERE THE COLD/DRY
NORTHERLY SURGE IS MORE VIGOROUS. THIS, PLUS THE HIGH VWS, WILL RESULT
IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE STORM MOTION COMING OUT OF A QS STATE, THE ANTICIPATED SWITCH IN
THE STEERING MECHANISM, AND THE TRACK ACROSS THE RUGGED LUZON TERRAIN,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KALMAEGI - Tropical Storm

#80 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:46 am

50 knots
27W KALMAEGI 191117 0600 16.7N 125.0E WPAC 50 996
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