WPAC: KAMMURI - Post-Tropical

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#541 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:55 am

Now over the South China Sea. Nearly 24-hour passage over the Philippines.

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#542 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:15 am

Looks like land passage has really took its toll on Kammuri unsurprisingly.

Regarding landfall intensity, due to deepening with the large core, I had a suspicion that pressure was not going to be as deep as its appearance suggested, and therefore the winds would be a little lower as well. That first suspicion seems to be well-founded as pressure observations supported 15 mb higher than JTWC's 12Z/landfall pressure of 943 mb at best. The lowest pressure I'm aware of was the 961.9 mb recorded by Josh Morgerman in Legazpi, so it might even be a stretch to estimate even a little below 960 mb.

However, while I am unaware of any good quality recorded wind data, accounts from both Josh Morgerman and James Reynolds seem to easily support at least a category 3 major typhoon landfall, with the possibility of JTWC's 115 kt not being so far-fetched in spite of the pressure. Maybe because in spite of the larger core, the entire circulation itself was actually a little more compact (excluding influence from the NE monsoon of course)? I'm curious in particular to how James thinks Kammuri compares to the core Lingling, a typhoon from earlier this season he intercepted that Ryukyu surface obs supported an intensity of ~110 kt +/-5 kt or so. Regardless, Kammuri was clearly a fairly potent system.

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 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1201558039158902784



 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1201674584090501120



 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1201675334120173569


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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#543 Postby Highteeld » Tue Dec 03, 2019 2:04 pm

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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#544 Postby aspen » Tue Dec 03, 2019 2:41 pm


Almost -110 C...good golly, that CCC was ridiculous. I think it neared the record for the largest CCC ever recorded.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Typhoon

#545 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:35 am

aspen wrote:

Almost -110 C...good golly, that CCC was ridiculous. I think it neared the record for the largest CCC ever recorded.


If that thing had more time to consolidate and was maybe a little tighter around the core... :eek:
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#546 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:50 am

It may have produced the coldest cloud tops on record but I think the persistent CCC really hindered it from consolidating more soon.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#547 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:55 am

I think the CCC should be looked at more as a symptom than the cause of Kammuri's delayed intensification. The system was taking on convergent easterly shear just below anvil level for multiple days, which I believe was the main issue and also led to the development and persistence of the CCC pattern.
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#548 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:43 am

To be honest I'm not really that much in awe of that record, maybe if it was like;
"Kammuri (or Typhoon XXX) produced the coldest cloud tops on record in an eye pattern that caused ADT estimates to go unbelievably crazy" :wink:

Just imagine an eye pattern with an average surrounding cloud temp of -100+C, what raw T# would ADT produce? maybe T9.0? :double:
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#549 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:15 pm

There's not much left of it now. All squalls have dissipated and its wind field is indistinguishable from the 35-40 mph NE monsoonal flow in the region.

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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Storm

#550 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:22 am

RSMC says still a TS
TS 1928 (Kammuri)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 5 December 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 5 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°05' (13.1°)
E113°35' (113.6°)
Direction and speed of movement SSW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 280 km (150 NM)
SE 170 km (90 NM)
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Depression

#551 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:44 am

Tropical Depression is not post-tropical

TD
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 5 December 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 5 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°00' (12.0°)
E113°00' (113.0°)
Direction and speed of movement S 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
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Re: WPAC: KAMMURI - Tropical Depression

#552 Postby aspen » Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:44 am

JMA: tracks a post-tropical remnant as a fully fledged TC

IMB: tracks fully fledged TC as a well-marked low pressure system

This is why we can’t have nice things.
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