WPAC: INVEST 97W

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WPAC: INVEST 97W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:42 am

97W.INVEST

97W INVEST 200813 0600 8.8N 179.0E WPAC 15 0
Last edited by Hayabusa on Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:46 am

20200813.0337.f15.37h.97W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.8.8N.179E.085pc


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:50 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:51 am

WWJP27 RJTD 130000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 10N 179W WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:26 am

GFS goes crazy over this while EURO doesn't do much.

00Z peaks at 942mb.

Image

06Z weaker but possible Japan landfall?

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:05 pm

Invest 97W
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 13, 2020:

Location: 8.3°N 178.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:06 pm

18Z GFS goes poof.

12Z peaked it at 963 mb.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:48 pm

Hmm convection looks null but do they see something ahead to warrant an advisory now or is it because boring?

ABPW10 PGTW 140030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/140030Z-140600ZAUG2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
8.3N 178.8E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM EAST FROM MAJURO, FSM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING AROUND AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 132316Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLC. INVEST 97W IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT 97W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND MARGINALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:29 pm

Image

Nice burst of convection near the estimated center.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:14 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.3N 178.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 179.2E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
EAST FROM MAJURO, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PARTIAL FLARING CONVECTION WEST
OF THE CENTER. A 140149Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL
POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. INVEST 97W IS IN
AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT SHOWING MUCH
DEVELOPMENT FOR 97W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#11 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:44 am

I like the vorticity, but it's really in desperate need of some convection.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:10 am

Hmm...
ABPW10 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141500Z-150600ZAUG2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 178.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 177.2E, APPROXIMATELY
564 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WEAK, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A COMBINATION OF PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES AT 140832Z
(ASCAT-A) AND 140947Z (ASCAT-B) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK
(10-15 KTS) LOW LEVEL WINDS WRAPPING AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. STRONGER 20-25 KTS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GRADIENT FLOW ARE DISPLACED 60+ NM TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WEAK. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER NUMERICAL MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
IN OVERALL POOR AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Fri Aug 14, 2020 7:20 pm

The pleasant weather from last night will continue for the first
half of today across eastern Micronesia. This afternoon a weak
circulation northeast of Majuro will begin to strengthen,causing
isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon for Majuro and
Kosrae. Theses showers will be isolated in nature, because of dry
air that is present in the 12z sounding from Majuro. The dry layer
will limit the amount of deep convection that is able to form
and, should stick around through Saturday night. This layer of dry
air is particular strong at Pohnpei. Where the sounding shows
low-level RH of 67% and mid- level RH at 34%; because of the
extent of this dry air the chance of showers will be less than 10%
this morning. However, isolated showers will be possible in the
afternoon across the entire region.

By Sunday the weather will begin to worsen across eastern Micronesia
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected for
Majuro and Kosrae. This worsening weather will reach Pohnpei and
Chuuk on Wednesday. Following the disturbance will be high pressure
which will bring calmer weather to the region. Winds during this
time frame will be light and variable, while island-effect showers
and thunderstorms are unlikley next week they cannot be ruled
out.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 15, 2020 6:36 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 178.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 173.2E, APPROXIMATELY 322
NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150420Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD
CENTER; HOWEVER, THERE ARE FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 142223Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 15-20KT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 5-10KT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
(<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AS
EVIDENCED IN RECENT MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN SOUNDINGS, AS WELL AS THE
LACK OF STRONG WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY NO GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#15 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:09 am

Back to low, but ICON still develops it

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZAUG2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 173.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 165.5E, APPROXIMATELY 139
NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152306Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME SHALLOW BANDING AND SCATTERED
FLARING CONVECTION. A 152255Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS THE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH SOME 15KT EASTERLY WINDS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 5-10KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, THE WIND FIELD HAS BROADENED AND CONTINUES TO LACK STRONG
WESTERLIES. NO GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:20 am

What a crap ensemble... the ones east of the dateline is better

Image
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 16, 2020 6:46 am

Popping convection.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#18 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:42 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 16, 2020 10:32 pm

Looks like JTWC dropped this from their advisory.
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