WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#101 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:43 am

Probrably underestimated?

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#102 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:54 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#103 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:19 am

Caving in to a more northern track instead?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#104 Postby NotoSans » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:21 am

Despite seemingly well-organised bandings on satellite, ASCAT finds an exposed center and some 30kt wind barbs to the north under the deep convection. This is consistent with earlier microwave imagery showing a bulk of displaced deep convection with a lack of curvature.

Assuming some undersampling (or the so-called ASCAT always runs below recon), one can reasonably make a case for a low-end tropical storm (this is what JTWC goes with at 12Z), but there is no evidence supporting anything higher than that.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#105 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:31 am

22W TWENTYTWO 201028 1200 16.6N 138.7E WPAC 35 1000
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#106 Postby rileydoxsee98 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:48 am

It may take a day or two to get going. But once it does this could really ramp up fast if the JTWC is right about the environment. Low shear and 100+ OHC, plus models like the idea of this being a compact small core system. I wouldn’t be surprised if this significantly exceeded model expectations and forecasts. Imo, anything from a Cat 2 to a Cat 5 is possible with this. I’d say a 4 is probably the most likely for now tho. But I’ve seen this before, too many times.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#107 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:55 am

NotoSans wrote:Despite seemingly well-organised bandings on satellite, ASCAT finds an exposed center and some 30kt wind barbs to the north under the deep convection. This is consistent with earlier microwave imagery showing a bulk of displaced deep convection with a lack of curvature.

Assuming some undersampling (or the so-called ASCAT always runs below recon), one can reasonably make a case for a low-end tropical storm (this is what JTWC goes with at 12Z), but there is no evidence supporting anything higher than that.


You are right.

Zeta never got below 55 knots in the gulf yet ASCAT only found less than 45-50 knots. Recon...

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Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#108 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:56 am

That’s a lotta OHC in Goni’s path :double:
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#109 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:25 am

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A cat 3 peak weakening down to a cat 1 before landfall? I don't think so.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#110 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:26 am

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#111 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:42 am

euro6208 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/LCj2aAQ.gif

A cat 3 peak weakening down to a cat 1 before landfall? I don't think so.

Unless there’s a significant burst of shear just prior to landfall.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#112 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:43 am

What does the text say? Might be some reasoning in there.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#113 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:15 am

1900hurricane wrote:What does the text say? Might be some reasoning in there.

They’re expecting RI into a major as Goni tracks into an even warmer pocket of 31+ C SSTs, then weakening as shear increases to ~20 kt.

If Goni has a well-defined core as it tracks into the 30-31C pocket, 105 kt will be VERY conservative. It could blow up into a Super Typhoon very easily.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#114 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:05 am

aspen wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:What does the text say? Might be some reasoning in there.

They’re expecting RI into a major as Goni tracks into an even warmer pocket of 31+ C SSTs, then weakening as shear increases to ~20 kt.

If Goni has a well-defined core as it tracks into the 30-31C pocket, 105 kt will be VERY conservative. It could blow up into a Super Typhoon very easily.

Yeah, this one is very concerning to me...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#115 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:35 pm

It's clearly not there yet, but the convection 22W is constantly shoving probably has the process of centralizing better well underway.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 'a' (22W)

#116 Postby NotoSans » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:31 pm

Named Goni. JMA keeps the storm at 85kt from Tau 72 to Tau 120 which doesn’t make much sense to me.
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Re: WPAC: GONI- Tropical Storm

#117 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:42 pm

TS 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 19:25 UTC, 28 October 2020

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 28 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°40' (16.7°)
E138°05' (138.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 29 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°20' (16.3°)
E133°35' (133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 80 km (42 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E129°30' (129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 140 km (75 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 31 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N14°00' (14.0°)
E124°55' (124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 185 km (100 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°10' (15.2°)
E120°05' (120.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 2 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50' (15.8°)
E115°00' (115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 650 km (340 NM)
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Re: WPAC: GONI- Tropical Storm

#118 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:35 pm

Not surprised by this MW appearance. Goni is doing the same thing 12W did, so it really isn't a shock that the MW presentation is now similar too.

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Re: WPAC: GONI- Tropical Storm

#119 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:04 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Not surprised by this MW appearance. Goni is doing the same thing 12W did, so it really isn't a shock that the MW presentation is now similar too.

https://i.imgur.com/iAz8qAF.jpg



I just looked at 12W's appearance but i think it was way too disorganized for comparison?

...unless you meant 21W lol
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Re: WPAC: GONI- Tropical Storm

#120 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:08 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Not surprised by this MW appearance. Goni is doing the same thing 12W did, so it really isn't a shock that the MW presentation is now similar too.

https://i.imgur.com/iAz8qAF.jpg



I just looked at 12W's appearance but i think it was way too disorganized for comparison?

...unless you meant 21W lol

JTWC had stopped tracking it at that point, but it lit off some sustained convection and developed some decent structure before succumbing to the mid-latitudes.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2853842#p2853842
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2854259#p2854259
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