WPAC: DUJUAN - Remnants

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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#21 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:12 pm

Can the thread be updated or is the storm still unnamed?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#22 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:56 pm

Does anyone has an ASCAT pass?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:41 pm

01W ONE 210218 0000 7.0N 132.6E WPAC 35 996
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 01W

#24 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:10 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM EAST
OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE,
AND FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SEMICIRCLES. A 172154Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND AN 180000Z ADT
ESTIMATE OF 2.4 (34 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. TS
01W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 01W IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF
A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER AND SOUTH OF JAPAN. IN GENERAL, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48 UNTIL THE MAJOR TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ZONAL FLOW
PREDOMINATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STR TO RE-BUILD NORTHEAST AND
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING NEAR TAU 72. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET DETERMINISTIC AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
165NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. TS 01W WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36 TO TAU 48 UNDER GENERALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT MODERATE VWS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 01W WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE
ARCHIPELAGO, AND BY TAU 120, WILL REACH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OFF THE
ISLAND OF MINDORO. INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS AND INCREASED VWS
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES BUT IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH A LARGE SPREAD OF 350NM AT TAU 120 (MINUS UKMET AND UKMET
ENSEMBLE MEAN). THESE SOLUTIONS ARE RECURVING THE SYSTEM NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD, WHICH IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF A
RE-BUILDING STR AND ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA.
SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN, NAVGEM HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:02 am

First named WPAC storm of 2021
Image

TS 2101 (Dujuan)
Issued at 07:00 UTC, 18 February 2021

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 18 February>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°25' (7.4°)
E132°10' (132.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 390 km (210 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 19 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°30' (7.5°)
E130°40' (130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 20 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°50' (7.8°)
E128°55' (128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 21 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°20' (10.3°)
E125°20' (125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 22 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°30' (11.5°)
E121°10' (121.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 23 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°00' (13.0°)
E118°25' (118.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:16 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby stormstrike » Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:05 pm

Is it just me or is it trying to make an eye :double:

Is the LLCC already in the center of those clouds? :?:
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby ejeraldmc » Thu Feb 18, 2021 11:03 pm

Looks like a CCC (central cold cover)
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:19 pm

It's down to TD but JMA keeps it at 40 knots
01W DUJUAN 210220 0000 6.4N 131.3E WPAC 30 999

TY2101(Dujuan)
issued at 09:50 JST, 20 February 2021
Analisys at 20/09 JST
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N6°50′(6.8°)
E130°0′(130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement 不定 ほとんど停滞
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
30-kt wind area N650km(350NM)
S165km(90NM)
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:23 am

total nudity
Image
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:15 am

Image
This is still a TS
TY2101(Dujuan)
issued at 18:45 JST, 20 February 2021
Analisys at 20/18 JST
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N7°25′(7.4°)
E130°0′(130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement 不定 ほとんど停滞
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
30-kt wind area N650km(350NM)
S165km(90NM)
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm/Tropical Depression

#32 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:53 pm

Hayabusa wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Nwebn6Y.png
This is still a TS
TY2101(Dujuan)
issued at 18:45 JST, 20 February 2021
Analisys at 20/18 JST
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N7°25′(7.4°)
E130°0′(130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement 不定 ほとんど停滞
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
30-kt wind area N650km(350NM)
S165km(90NM)

The JTWC has this as a Depression
Image
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm/Tropical Depression

#33 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:48 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Nwebn6Y.png
This is still a TS
TY2101(Dujuan)
issued at 18:45 JST, 20 February 2021
Analisys at 20/18 JST
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N7°25′(7.4°)
E130°0′(130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement 不定 ほとんど停滞
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
30-kt wind area N650km(350NM)
S165km(90NM)

The JTWC has this as a Depression
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/wp0121.gif


Yeah but JMA is the RSMC for the Northwestern Pacific, so any tropical cyclone estimate (TD/TS/STS/Typhoon) by them is the official one.
And 18 hours later still a TS.
TY2101(Dujuan)
issued at 12:45 JST, 21 February 2021
Analisys at 21/12 JST
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N9°10′(9.2°)
E129°20′(129.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
30-kt wind area N560km(300NM)
S280km(150NM)
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:59 am

And of course, the JTWC now has this as a Minimal Tropical Storm, this thing refuses to die!

Image
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Re: WPAC: DUJUAN - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:49 pm

Last warning.

TD
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 22 February 2021

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 22 February>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°00' (11.0°)
E126°00' (126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
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