WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[Cunxi Huang]

JTWC 165kt, 888 mb.

WP, 02, 2021041718, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1284E, 165, 888, ST, 34, NEQ, 190, 145, 170, 195, 1007, 330, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, SURIGAE, D,

[InfernoFlameCat]

STILL INTENSIFYING

[Meow]

STILL INTENSIFYING

It’s soon to weaken because of ERC.

[ElectricStorm]

Put this one in the hall of fame
02W SURIGAE 210417 1800 12.6N 128.4E WPAC 165 888

[ElectricStorm]

Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...

[Iceresistance]

STILL INTENSIFYING

It’s soon to weaken because of ERC.

I've seen storms do a EWRC & Not Weaken . . .

Latest prime example is Mangkhut from 2018 . . .

[Iceresistance]

Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...

How did that 888 MB GFS Model run Verify? What are the odds of THAT??

[TorSkk]

High OHC worked its magic

https://i.imgur.com/Kf4jGKL.png

This time it won't recover as it will have left the high OHC area before the ERC is done. Now clearly looking worse on satellite

[aspen]

Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...

Now we have to actually take those fantasy land runs a little more seriously after this lol.

But in all seriousness, this was probably a fluke coincidence that Surigae managed to peak at exactly the same intensity as one long-range GFS run. It won’t mean anything unless another bonkers fantasy land solution verifies.

[ElectricStorm]

Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...

Now we have to actually take those fantasy land runs a little more seriously after this lol.

But in all seriousness, this was probably a fluke coincidence that Surigae managed to peak at exactly the same intensity as one long-range GFS run. It won’t mean anything unless another bonkers fantasy land solution verifies.

Yeah either way, hopefully the updated GFS will perform much better than the GFS did last year...

[Kingarabian]

Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...

Now we have to actually take those fantasy land runs a little more seriously after this lol.

But in all seriousness, this was probably a fluke coincidence that Surigae managed to peak at exactly the same intensity as one long-range GFS run. It won’t mean anything unless another bonkers fantasy land solution verifies.

In terms of model intensity verification, the models did really well. Even if Surigae only peaked at 920-925mb, it still wouldn't be a miss by the models. Model intensity forecasts a week out are always some sort of ball park figure.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

lol how are we looking at an 888mb super typhoon in April.

[weeniepatrol]

Grats to the GFS

[aspen]

Flashback to that 888mb GFS run...

Now we have to actually take those fantasy land runs a little more seriously after this lol.

But in all seriousness, this was probably a fluke coincidence that Surigae managed to peak at exactly the same intensity as one long-range GFS run. It won’t mean anything unless another bonkers fantasy land solution verifies.

Yeah either way, hopefully the updated GFS will perform much better than the GFS did last year...

Even though all the models were sub-par last year, the GFS was pretty good late in the season sniffing out all the WCar storms around two weeks before they even formed. Hopefully this upgrade means it’s moderately reliable throughout the season instead of just at the very end and constantly missing development earlier on.

[Yellow Evan]

STILL INTENSIFYING

It's been on the decline the past few hours in all likelihood due to the ERC. The JTWC is just late as usual.

[kevin]

Now we have to actually take those fantasy land runs a little more seriously after this lol.

But in all seriousness, this was probably a fluke coincidence that Surigae managed to peak at exactly the same intensity as one long-range GFS run. It won’t mean anything unless another bonkers fantasy land solution verifies.

Yeah either way, hopefully the updated GFS will perform much better than the GFS did last year...

Even though all the models were sub-par last year, the GFS was pretty good late in the season sniffing out all the WCar storms around two weeks before they even formed. Hopefully this upgrade means it’s moderately reliable throughout the season instead of just at the very end and constantly missing development earlier on.

Yeah GFS was really weird last year. It indeed sniffed out all of the late season WCar storms super early, only to drop it once the other models also started showing development. And then it joined the party again days later.

[NotoSans]

Personal thought: Peak was 160kt at 12Z. That was based on a clear-cut subjective T7.5, SMAP showing 1min max winds of 160kt, and higher ADT values of T8.0.

Microwave estimates have shown a large discrepancy from 135kt (AMSU) to 160kt (SSMIS), but I’d lean towards SSMIS on this one.

I’d lower the intensity to 155KT at 18Z, given the clear ERC trend on microwave.

[CrazyC83]

This would be like a monster cat 5 in the Atlantic in the middle of June?

[Highteeld]

Put this one in the hall of fame
02W SURIGAE 210417 1800 12.6N 128.4E WPAC 165 888

That's probably pretty close to accurate, but off by several hours.

[Highteeld]

Was upgraded to cat 5 at 6z last night per latest revision

02W SURIGAE 210417 1800 12.6N 128.4E WPAC 165 888
02W SURIGAE 210417 1200 12.0N 129.2E WPAC 155 900
02W SURIGAE 210417 0600 11.3N 130.2E WPAC 140 919
02W SURIGAE 210417 0000 10.7N 131.1E WPAC 120 940