WPAC: INVEST 97W

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: INVEST 97W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 16, 2021 10:31 am

97W INVEST 211016 1200 14.0N 112.5E WPAC 15 0

97W INVEST 211016 1200 14.1N 112.0E WPAC 20 1006

ABPW10 PGTW 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161600Z-170600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161352ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.1N 112.0E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DANANG,
VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
POORLY-ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 161239Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 25 TO 30 KNOT EASTERLIES
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT
28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

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