WPAC: 26W - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: 26W - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:16 pm

99W INVEST 211022 0000 6.2N 129.3E WPAC 15 0

Image
Ughhh this one got 99W :roll: , maybe 98W's time to debut? But models aren't currently enthusiastic on 98W's intensity.
Last edited by Hayabusa on Thu Oct 28, 2021 11:56 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:05 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240300Z-240600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.5N 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 232043Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A BROAD, EXPOSED AREA OF
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
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欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:45 am

ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZOCT2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZOCT2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 117.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY
138 NM NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:36 am

WWJP27 RJTD 240600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 117E WEST SLOWLY.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:25 am

Image
WTPN21 PGTW 250530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 113.8E TO 12.7N 110.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 113.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 117.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY
311 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING THAT APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLC.
THIS BANDING CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN A 242334Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE, BUT A
250008Z ASCAT-A IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT
WINDS UNDER THE BANDING IS PART OF THE COLD SURGE EVENT TO THE NORTH
AND NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE LANDFALL, BUT THE CURRENT TRACK SPEED OF INVEST
99W, WHICH IS FASTER THAN IN MODEL GUIDANCE, INDICATES THE SYSTEM
MAY MAKE LANDFALL SOONER WITH LESS TIME OVER WATER TO REACH WARNING
CRITERIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260530Z.
//
NNNN
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欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 26W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:04 am

Image
WDPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 11.7N 111.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 259 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY,
VI
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, AND REACHED WARNING INTENSITY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH SHALLOW TO MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS,
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FLARE OVER THE ASSESSED CENTER, THOUGH THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE REMAINS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, SPIRAL BAND ANALYSIS AND THE FIRST HINTS OF
A THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC ON AN ANIMATED RADAR MOSAIC FROM
VIETNAM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T1.5, A 260245Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A
SWATH OF NORTH-SOUTH WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS TRAPPED BETWEEN THE
VIETNAMESE COAST AND THE CENTER, WITH 20-25 KNOTS WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER ON THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SIDES. A 260600Z SHIP OBSERVATION
APPROXIMATELY 20-NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER INDICATED A 27 KNOT
WIND, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INTENSITY. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VWS, MODERATE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED STR EXTENSION OVER THE PHILIPPINES.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STR COMPLEX EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN THAILAND TO
HAINAN, AND THEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINES. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS
NEAR NINH HOA, VIETNAM, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND. WHILE THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, THE LIMITED TIME OVER
WATER WILL HINDER MUCH IN THE WAY OF INTENSIFICATION, WITH A PEAK
OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DUE TO FUNNELING EFFECTS
BETWEEN THE COASTLINE AND THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, GALE FORCE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE BAND OF HIGH WINDS IN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE OVERALL INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH 35 KNOTS. ONCE ASHORE, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN CAMBODIA BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN
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欲しいなヤンデレ寝取られる!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/


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