WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Eye temp now 23C+
2018OCT24 071000 6.8 919.8 134.8 6.8 6.9 7.7 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.16 -79.70 EYE 22 IR 64.3 14.01 -146.88 ARCHER HIM-8 17.9

[Dave C]

Big wobble west recently, these wobbles could make or break for Saipan as to whether they get eyewall or not. Best case scenario is a perfect split between Rota and Saipan like Keith did in 97.

[mrbagyo]

Eye temp now 23C+
2018OCT24 071000 6.8 919.8 134.8 6.8 6.9 7.7 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.16 -79.70 EYE 22 IR 64.3 14.01 -146.88 ARCHER HIM-8 17.9

Could it makebit to 24 or 25°C range. Would be amazing to see a temp ∆ (eye to CDO) of 105 to 110 range

[NotoSans]

Microwave imagery shows that an outer eyewall is starting to form. Eyewall dynamics would be the major factor influencing intensity right now.

[dexterlabio]

Microwave imagery shows that an outer eyewall is starting to form. Eyewall dynamics would be the major factor influencing intensity right now.

Mangkhut handled the EWRCs pretty well, given the excellent environment during its lifespan. Let's see if the same thing goes with Yutu.

[Hayabusa]

Increasing eye temp, Meranti was 23.82C
2018OCT24 074000 6.9 917.2 137.4 6.9 6.8 7.7 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.44 -79.32 EYE 21 IR 64.3 14.04 -146.84 ARCHER HIM-8 17.9

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A 20 NM WIDE ROUND EYE, SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION WITH BANDS OF EXTREMELY DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. COMPARING THE 36 AND 89 GHZ CHANNELS IN
A 240354Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS THE EYE IS TILTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT. THIS IS ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS IS BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND RJTD OF T7.0 (140 KTS) AND
PGTW OF T7.5 (155 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING STY
31W NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24, STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48, AND
GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO HIGH VWS BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACKERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE OUTLIERS
START TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH (COAMPS-GFS AND NAVGEM) AND SOUTH
(UKMET, GALWEM, AND JGSM). THE SPREAD IS 275 NM BY TAU 72, THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY 31W IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN TURNING SLOWLY
AROUND THE STR AXIS WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS HUGE WITH OVER 1000 NM OF SPREAD
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN OUTLIERS. THERE ARE THREE CLUSTERS
IN THE GUIDANCE. THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER CONSISTS OF THE UKMET, GALWEM,
AND JGSM AND PREDICTS A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK,
PRIMARILY DUE TO A STR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHERN CLUSTER
CONSISTS OF NAVGEM AND COAMPS-GFS AND PREDICTS RECURVATURE DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PRIOR TO TAU 72. THE MIDDLE CLUSTER
CONSISTS OF ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THIS CLUSTER PREDICTS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN BY
TAU 120 AS A SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE
STR. MOST MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE MIDDLE CLUSTER
IS THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
MIDDLE CLUSTER. UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

150 knots Saipan and Tinian? That is incredible.

[euro6208]

[Hayabusa]

2018OCT24 084000 6.9 917.2 137.4 6.9 6.9 7.7 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.23 -79.55 EYE 21 IR 65.9 14.12 -146.81 ARCHER HIM-8 18.0

[euro6208]

63 mph gust in Saipan. Highest so far.

[Hayabusa]

Yutu says hello to Kong-rey
2018OCT24 091000 7.0 914.5 140.0 7.0 7.7 7.8 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 23.21 -79.93 EYE 21 IR 71.4 14.22 -146.75 ARCHER HIM-8 18.1

[Hayabusa]

Now as strong as Mangkhut by JMA in terms of pressure but stronger than Mangkhut in terms of winds 5 knots difference

TY 1826 (Yutu)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 24 October 2018

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 24 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N14°05' (14.1°)
E146°50' (146.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)

[Hayabusa]

TPPN10 PGTW 240932

A. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU)

B. 24/0900Z

C. 14.15N

D. 146.79E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET 6.5. PT 7.5. DBO DT. EYE DIAMETER 21NM.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/0354Z 13.70N 147.45E AMS2
24/0443Z 13.83N 147.23E SSMI


DAVIS

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 OCT 2018 Time : 094000 UTC
Lat : 14:18:36 N Lon : 146:41:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 914.5mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.3 7.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +22.5C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.2T/18hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 172nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.1 degrees

****************************************************

[NotoSans]

As a side note, this is the first time that there are 7 violent typhoons (105 knots or above on the JMA scale) in one year. Previous record is 6.

[Dave C]

Darn Guam radar seems to be off and on,why is that?

[euro6208]

HWRF initialise Yutu at 902 and forecast to deepen 895 mb in 3 hours . Slams Tinian hard 901 mb.

[euro6208]

Darn Guam radar seems to be off and on,why is that?

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

It's undergoing maintenance by Andersen AFB. You can see it here. Last part went offline.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1055039185428627456




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1055042172150521856