WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd wager if a recon was in this right now they'd find a sub-900mb cyclone.

[NotoSans]

WDPN32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
HAS CONTINUED, WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY NOW AT 140 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED 11
NM DIAMETER EYE WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE MOST RECENT PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE BROKE CONSTRAINTS AS MARIA INTENSIFIED BY 3.5 T-NUMBERS IN
24 HOURS, WITH A +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT BRINGING THE DATA-T TO T7.0
(140 KNOTS). DUE TO CONSTRAINTS, INTENSITY ESTIMATES VARY BETWEEN
AGENCIES AND AUTOMATED TECHNIQUES, HOWEVER THE SUPER TYPHOON
ASSESSMENT IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE 052351Z GMI 89 GHZ PASS
DEPICTING A TIGHT DARK BLUE MICROWAVE EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY
DARK RED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY TUTT CELLS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PRODUCT INDICATES LOW
10-15 KNOT VWS VALUES OVERHEAD. SST VALUES RANGE FROM 29 TO 30C AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES ARE VERY HIGH. STY 10W IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED
STEERING RIDGE WITH A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AFTER WHICH THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME PREDOMINANTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH AN ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE
JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OF ONLY 60NM AT THAT TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, IN PARTICULAR HIGH OHC AND ROBUST OUTFLOW, ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE WESTERN TUTT CELL
SHOULD MOVE OFF TOWARD LUZON OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHILE THE
NORTHEASTERN TUTT CELL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR NEARLY 72 HOURS TO
CONTINUE PROVIDING OUTFLOW SUPPORT. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE(S), WHICH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR, LEADING TO SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE INTENSITY.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
STR TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE
SLIGHTLY AS SST COOLS, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES DECREASE, AND UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH FLOW FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE
TUTT-ENHANCED OUTFLOW SHOULD ALSO WANE AFTER TAU 72. BOTH THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND GEFS SINGLE-MODEL ENSEMBLES
INDICATE VERY LOW SPREAD IN THE SOLUTION THROUGHOUT THE FULL FIVE-
DAY FORECAST, WITH AN ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ONLY 125 NM AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES OKINAWA. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

JTWC's forecast is worth roughly 32 units of ACE for those curious.

[euro6208]

Where have i seen this before? A rapidly intensifying typhoon, reaches low end Cat 5, and seems to have max out? It's all rules. Can't go above 145 knots unless this thing reaches 7.5. Dvorak sucks compared to recon.



We've seen this many times.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Given how rapidly this had intensified and what the models have been depicting, I'm not ruling out further strengthening. Heck, this could easily surpass last year's Maria. Peak intensity would be one to two days from now!

This is different. See Vongfong, Nuri, Soudelor and Meranti.

[cycloneye]

Will Maria reach the Haiyan intensity?

[1900hurricane]

Hey Japan, I couldn't help but notice a super typhoon headed for some of your islands. Might I suggest sending a plane in that direction? *wink wink*

[1900hurricane]

Will Maria reach the Haiyan intensity?

I'd say chances are very, very slim.

[mrbagyo]

As clear as the eye of STY Nepartak 2016 - I can see the ocean.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
HAS CONTINUED, WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY NOW AT 140 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED 11
NM DIAMETER EYE WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE MOST RECENT PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE BROKE CONSTRAINTS AS MARIA INTENSIFIED BY 3.5 T-NUMBERS IN
24 HOURS, WITH A +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT BRINGING THE DATA-T TO T7.0
(140 KNOTS). DUE TO CONSTRAINTS, INTENSITY ESTIMATES VARY BETWEEN
AGENCIES AND AUTOMATED TECHNIQUES, HOWEVER THE SUPER TYPHOON
ASSESSMENT IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE 052351Z GMI 89 GHZ PASS
DEPICTING A TIGHT DARK BLUE MICROWAVE EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY
DARK RED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY TUTT CELLS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHEAST. THE CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PRODUCT INDICATES LOW
10-15 KNOT VWS VALUES OVERHEAD. SST VALUES RANGE FROM 29 TO 30C AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES ARE VERY HIGH. STY 10W IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED
STEERING RIDGE WITH A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AFTER WHICH THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME PREDOMINANTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH AN ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE
JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OF ONLY 60NM AT THAT TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, IN PARTICULAR HIGH OHC AND ROBUST OUTFLOW, ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE WESTERN TUTT CELL
SHOULD MOVE OFF TOWARD LUZON OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHILE THE
NORTHEASTERN TUTT CELL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR NEARLY 72 HOURS TO
CONTINUE PROVIDING OUTFLOW SUPPORT. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE(S), WHICH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR, LEADING TO SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE INTENSITY.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
STR TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE
SLIGHTLY AS SST COOLS, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES DECREASE, AND UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH FLOW FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE
TUTT-ENHANCED OUTFLOW SHOULD ALSO WANE AFTER TAU 72. BOTH THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND GEFS SINGLE-MODEL ENSEMBLES
INDICATE VERY LOW SPREAD IN THE SOLUTION THROUGHOUT THE FULL FIVE-
DAY FORECAST, WITH AN ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ONLY 125 NM AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES OKINAWA. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

GFS initialised this at 911 mb vs 918 mb from BT.

[NotoSans]

GFS short-term forecast shows us why typhoon bogus may be a bad idea.

[1900hurricane]

I just took a peek at the 00Z sounding data from Guam. Based on the surface parcel, it does appear that Maria may be capable of cold dark grey convection if everything goes right. I still wouldn't bet on a full CDO of it though.

[TheAustinMan]

If anyone happens to be looking for a new wallpaper to put up on their computer screens, Super Typhoon Maria would be a good candidate. A hauntingly beautiful sight this afternoon, and conditions ahead of it are pretty much ideal with the system already exceedingly intense. HWRF's last run had a pretty high pressure initialization but nonetheless showed smooth sailing (well, for the system, not the boaters underneath) for Maria over the next four days. The ceiling for this system is quite high I imagine.

977KB. Source: http://himawari8.nict.go.jp/

[doomhaMwx]

95kts 935mb by JMA @ 03Z

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 6 July 2018

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 6 July>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N16°20' (16.3°)
E141°40' (141.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

Himawari-8 VIS
07-05-2018 01:00am UTC

[euro6208]

Getting dangerously close.

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

Eye temp still rising- now at 18.47 °C
Lets see if it can push to 20+

2018JUL06 033000 6.6 931.3 129.6 6.6 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 18.47 -75.24 EYE 14 IR 72.3 16.28 -141.73 COMBO HIM-8 19.1

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 6 July 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 6 July>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N16°30' (16.5°)
E141°35' (141.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 330 km (180 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 7 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N17°40' (17.7°)
E141°20' (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 8 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°10' (20.2°)
E138°55' (138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N22°30' (22.5°)
E134°05' (134.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 430 km (230 NM)