WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W

[doomhaMwx]

Now Tropical Depression 29W by JTWC...
JTWC is forecasting it to become a Typhoon/Hurricane-strength system over the Bay of Bengal... Still uncertain on where will it head to after passing through the Andaman-Nicobar islands, however...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

0z is showing strong shear over quite a few days further N in bob .

[euro6208]

40 knots for the first landfall in a very sparsely populated area.

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER. A 060244Z
METOP-B 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING BUT DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A
060232Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS
BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 29W IS TRACKING POLEWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS IT STRENGTHENS AND STEERS UNDER AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, ALONG 18-20N LATITUDE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS UNTIL
IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA NEAR TAU 24. TD 29W WILL
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSITS THE ANDAMAN SEA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 29W WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES A BROAD BREAK
IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER
BANGLADESH. AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING STEERING INFLUENCE, THERE
IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS IT DEVELOPS
A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 060920

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTY-NINE)

B. 06/0900Z

C. 8.60N

D. 102.42E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

A. 29W (NONAME)

B. 06/0830Z

C. 8.3N

D. 102.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON 0.3 CURVED BANDING. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Not expecting any strengthening any longer.

WDPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061530Z INFRARED HIMAWARI SATELLITE
IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKLY-DEFINED AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5-10 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). TD 29W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE HAS CHANGED, FORECAST INTENSITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED
IN THE LATER TAUS AS A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.
B. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT REMAINS IN MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
THAILAND THROUGH TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS OVER THE MALAY
PENINSULA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND. TD 29W
WILL SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER AND TRANSITS THE
ANDAMAN SEA. TD 29W WILL REACH OF MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 60. NUMERICAL MODEL FIELDS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT
DISSIPATES TD 29W INTO A LARGER CIRCULATION IN THE BAY OF BENGAL
AFTER TAU 60. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, SPECIFICALLY THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Currently passing over the Malay Peninsula... JTWC has downgraded it into a 20kt LPA...

29W TWENTYNINE 171108 0000 11.4N 99.4E WPAC 20 1008

[doomhaMwx]

Significant restrengthening looking more and more unlikely once it emerges back over water due to increasing wind shear...
However, aside from 29W, a broad area of disturbed weather over the southern Bay of Bengal needs to be closely watched for possible further development during the rest of this week and next week... It is possible that the weak 29W will merge or get absorbed into this feature on the next few days....