WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

I''d advise Josh to go to the same place where he went to chase Haima. Latest movement of the storm looks like touchdown in Penablanca, Cagayan in the early morning.

[mrbagyo]

I think he'll make it, there's a lot of widespread class and government work cancellation in Luzon = less traffic.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Our school announced the cancellation of classes just after I was getting dressed. They should have coincided with the government's announcement instead of delaying it. Weather is getting worse here. Conditions are deteriorating; winds are picking up, temperatures have dropped, and it's now raining in some areas---giving us a glance on Mangkhut's enormity.

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA AWS


Note: pressure seems not calibrated properly

[NotoSans]

Looks like another ERC is about to begin as per microwave imagery. No significant intensification before landfall, but the RMW will get even larger

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING
NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES STY 26W HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF REMARKABLY WELL,
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM RETAINS
A 39 NM EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS. DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE EYE,
THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CENTER
IS SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE THAN THE OTHER QUADRANTS. A 132232Z SSMIS
89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY STRONG, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL
AND EXCELLENT SPIRAL BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LARGE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AT 150 KNOTS BASED ON A
BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 (140 KNOTS) TO
T7.5 (155 KNOTS), AS WELL AS A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 152
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIE
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, THOUGH THE
PREVIOUS TAP INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SLIGHTLY
IMPINGING OUTFLOW IN THIS QUADRANT, AS EVIDENCED BY THE WEAKER
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN THIS QUADRANT. VWS REMAINS LOW AND SSTS AND
OHC REMAIN SUPPORTIVE. STY 26W CONTINUES TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER
THE INFLUENCE THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL AS A VERY INTENSE SUPER TYPHOON ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF LUZON NEAR TAU 20. SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE NEAR-TERM IS
EXPECTED AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND EXPERIMENTAL MODEL PRODUCTS
ARE SHOWING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) OCCURRING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN
FEATURES OF NORTHERN LUZON. STY 26W WILL REEMERGE INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 30 AS A 110 KNOT SYSTEM. A PERIOD OF SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE SCS BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARM WATERS, FREE OF TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72, WITH LESS THAN 25NM SPREAD AT LANDFALL, INCREASING TO 115NM AT
TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY MANGKHUT WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SCS JUST SOUTH
OF HONG KONG MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 72.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN VIETNAM
AND MYANMAR BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN THE LATER TAUS, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 96, WITH MANY MODELS
LOSING THE VORTEX COMPLETELY WHILE OTHERS TAKE THE SYSTEM EITHER
NORTHWEST OR NORTH. OVERALL HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH TAU 96, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

Looks like another ERC is about to begin as per microwave imagery. No significant intensification before landfall, but the RMW will get even larger

Yup, this would put a break in intensification even if Mangkhut cross the High OHC area (I'd retract my earlier statement) - the outer Eyewall is just so huge.
Mangkhut is also starting to look like a cinnamon roll in visible imagery

[1900hurricane]

Looks like another ERC is about to begin as per microwave imagery. No significant intensification before landfall, but the RMW will get even larger

Yep, you can even see early hints of it on visible imagery. Despite the large size, the CDO diameter is much smaller than previously, and the system looks a little more skeletal. That's usually a clear sign that the primary inner eyewall doesn't have absolute control and is being interfered with to some degree.



Somewhat related, but I hypothesize that the early onset of eyewall replacement in this case and perhaps in general my be spurred by inadequate ventilation, in turn increasing subsidence in the moat region outside the eyewall and hastening the development of an outer. Mangkhut has had great outflow for most of its existence, but venting to the north has been restricted some over the past 24 hours or so, and this may have been enough of an imperfection in mass removal for such a large and intense system to initiate eyewall replacement.

[doomhaMwx]

Outer rainbands affecting much of Luzon now.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1040456796664672256

[Thon1357]

Seems to be moving North West now, any chance of it going to miss?

For reasons unknown, PAGASA is now classifying it as a Tropical Depression on their 11 AM bulletin

[doomhaMwx]

Seems to be moving North West now, any chance of it going to miss?

For reasons unknown, PAGASA is now classifying it as a Tropical Depression on their 11 AM bulletin

Perhaps it was an error and has already been rectified. I see it being listed/mentioned as a typhoon on their 11am bulletin.

[Joe_1]

https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tam ... lletin.pdf

[Joe_1]

https://imgur.com/anC7hPI

[dexterlabio]

Seems to be moving North West now, any chance of it going to miss?

For reasons unknown, PAGASA is now classifying it as a Tropical Depression on their 11 AM bulletin

Cagayan is still a target if this current northwest motion continues.

[mrbagyo]

It's missing JTWCs forecast point. Mangkhut is moving a tad more north.

[doomhaMwx]

Video coming from Aparri, Cagayan this Friday morning PhT.

 https://twitter.com/YouScoop/status/1040471520596770816

[NotoSans]

Definitely tracking right of model forecast. Gonna be a tough chase for Josh it seems.

[Thon1357]

Seems to be moving North West now, any chance of it going to miss?

For reasons unknown, PAGASA is now classifying it as a Tropical Depression on their 11 AM bulletin

Perhaps it was an error and has already been rectified. I see it being listed/mentioned as a typhoon on their 11am bulletin.

Yes it was already corrected moments later when I checked again on the web page. Though the PDF file correctly indicates it as Typhoon.

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09132232
SATCON: MSLP = 908 hPa MSW = 147 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 142.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 131 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 230 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -4.0 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 924 hPa 130 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP140010
CIMSS AMSU: 910 hPa 144 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09130936
ATMS: 901.9 hPa 155.4 knots Date: 09131659
SSMIS: 902.0 hPa 154.0 knots Date: 09132232
CIRA ATMS: 914 hPa 135 knots Date: 09121630