WPAC: SONCA - Tropical Depression

[1900hurricane]

Invest 96W has been tagged in the southwestern portion of the Philippines.

96W INVEST 170718 1800 9.6N 121.6E WPAC 15 1010

[Yellow Evan]

EPS has been hinting at a Talas re-run.

[1900hurricane]

Background conditions are pretty similar. It looks like this disturbance has latched onto the eastern end of a weak monsoon trough.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Seems to be organizing steadily.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 201514
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 20/1400Z

C. 16.4N

D. 116.2E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED FROM SW TO NE. SLIGHTLY
MORE THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[euro6208]

Ummm...Small and compact.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, this is a tropical cyclone. A very tiny one, but definitely one.

[1900hurricane]

96W may be coming into view of this radar

[doomhaMwx]

Oh man, how could JTWC still be silent on this one, and it's not even a Low Pressure Area on JMA's 00z Surface Analysis...

[euro6208]

So sad that JTWC doesn't even mention this not even a LOW and JMA doesn't even have anything in this area in their 48 hour forecast.

[euro6208]

[NotoSans]

JTWC upgrades it to TD 08W, which is very consistent with recent ASCAT showing a well-defined LLCC and 25-30 kt winds.

[mrbagyo]

Due to its compact nature, this could intensify real quick. Looks like a TS now

[euro6208]

JTWC upgrades it to TD 08W, which is very consistent with recent ASCAT showing a well-defined LLCC and 25-30 kt winds.

Likely too small for ASCAT to correctly measure.

[doomhaMwx]

08W EIGHT 170721 0000 17.1N 114.8E WPAC 30 1004

[doomhaMwx]

The JTWC forecasts 08W to strengthen into a moderate-strong Tropical Storm during the weekend as it takes a track quite similar to "Talas"(06W) from nearly a week ago...

[Yellow Evan]

WTPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.8N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.2N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.6N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.9N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.8N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.1N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.5N 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 114.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 01/
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. A
210222Z METOP-A 89GHZ LOW-RESOLUTION IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT CELL OVER
TAIWAN. A 210137Z ASCAT BULLS-EYE 25-KM IMAGE SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS. TD
08W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE THEREFORE IT
SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 08W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER HAINAN ISLAND, MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 42, THEN CROSS OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF TIME BEFORE MAKING ITS SECOND LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR
84. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO THE POOR INITIALIZATION
OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TD 08W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS, HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY DUE TO THE MODEL'S POOR
INITIALIZATION AND THE SMALL SYSTEM SIZE (HISTORICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION).
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TD 08W WILL DISSIPATE OVER
VIETNAM BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120.//
NNNN