WPAC: KULAP - Low

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND REMAINS POSITIONED UNDER A BROAD UPPER-LOW YET
HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS OF LESS THAN 50NM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 220652Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THIS MICROWAVE EYE STRUCTURE, ALONG WITH
RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWING 45-50 KNOT WINDS AND A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS, SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 50
KNOTS. TS 09W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. DUE TO THE LIKELY BINARY INTERACTION
WITH TS 07W, PLEASE REVIEW THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR TS
07W.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 09W SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 48, TS 09W
WILL APPROACH TS 07W WITHIN 400NM AND WILL BEGIN BINARY INTERACTION.
AS 09W CLOSES TO 240 NM BY TAU 72 AND 215 NM BY TAU 96, IT WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WHILE
ACCELERATING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF TS
07W. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TS 07W AND
THE EXPECTED DISRUPTION OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Kulap's extratropical origins can still be seen on WV.

[NotoSans]

Kulap starts to exhibit some subtropical characteristics.

TPPN11 PGTW 221443

A. TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP)

B. 22/1420Z

C. 30.15N

D. 168.99E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS 1.0 DT. MET: 2.5. PT: 2.0. DBO MET. DVOARAK NOT
REPRESENTATIVE OF INTENSITY AS SYSTEM STARTS TO TRANSITION TO
SUBTROPICAL. SCAT SHOWS 45KT WINDS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/0951Z 30.00N 169.90E MMHS


DAVIS

[1900hurricane]

It's trying to re-fire some convection, but there still is a ton of dry air to contend with.

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 674 NM
NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED IN CHARACTER OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS NOW FULLY
EXPOSED, BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STILL BANDING INTO THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND REMAINS
POSITIONED UNDER A BROAD UPPER-LOW. AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD CORE ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE, SUPPORTING THE PREMISE THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING TOWARDS
SUBTROPICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, A 22/1641Z DMSP SSMI 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO WEST QUADRANTS AND LOW LEVEL BANDING
INTO THE LLCC BUT LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES RANGE FROM T2.0 TO T2.5T, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN DROPPED TO 40 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL AREA, VERY NEARLY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS LIMITING ANY OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
27 DEG CELSIUS. TS 09W CONTINUES TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF WEST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. DUE TO THE LIKELY BINARY INTERACTION
WITH TS 07W, PLEASE REVIEW THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR TS
07W.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THIS POINT AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, TS 09W WILL ENTER A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, WHILE APPROACHING WITHIN 600NM OF TS 07W. BY TAU 72 TS
09W WILL BE CAPTURED IN A BINARY INTERACTION WITH TS 07W AND START
TO TRACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. TS 09W SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES TO TAP INTO MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE SSTS AND MAINTAINS ITS HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER TAU
48 HOWEVER, TS 09W CLOSES ON TS 07W, BEGINS BINARY INTERACTION AND
FACES INCREASING VWS, WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TO JUST 25 KNOTS BY TAU
96.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WHILE
TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF TS
07W. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT
BIFURCATES AFTER TAU 72 WITH COAMPS-TC AND HWRF TURNING THE REMNANTS
OF THE SYSTEM NORTH TOWARDS THE KURIL ISLANDS, WHILE GFS TAKES THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TS 07W AND THE EXPECTED DISRUPTION OF
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 696 NM
NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONSTRAINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE EXTENT OF THE TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING, WITH THE CIMSS ANIMATED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATING 09W HAS BECOME NEARLY ENVELOPED
BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THIS COOLER AIR AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) NEAR 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS ARE AIDING IN THE TRANSITION TO A SUB-TROPICAL STORM;
HOWEVER, BASED ON THE WIND STRUCTURE REVEALED BY A RECENT ASCAT
PASS, 09W IS STILL BEING ASSESSED AS A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH SOME
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. AMSU THERMAL CROSS SECTION DATA INDICATE
THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPOSPHERIC COLD ANOMALY PROVIDING
SUPPORT TO THE HYBRID NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC SEEN
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 230436Z GPM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH LIMITED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), IN ADDITION TO THE MARGINAL SST SUPPORT.
TS 09W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DUE TO THE WANING INFLUENCE OF 09W, LITTLE INTERACTION WITH TS 07W
IS NOW EXPECTED DESPITE THE CLOSE APPROACH. GIVEN ITS BROAD WIND
FIELD, KULAP IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72, HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TS
09W MAY TRANSITION COMPLETELY INTO A SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO
THAT TIME, PARTICULARLY AS SSTS DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF 07W AND
09W INTERACTING AT SOME LEVEL, AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT OF THIS INTERACTION ON INTENSITY, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644 NM NORTHEAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION GRADUALLY BECOMING SHALLOWER. A
232355Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE WIND FIELD STILL APPEARS TO BE
PARTIALLY TROPICAL IN NATURE, DESPITE ITS HIGH LATITUDE AND COOL DRY
AIR SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. THE AMSU CROSS SECTION INDICATES A
WEAKENING WARM CORE, AND 09W IS NOW TRACKING OVER 25 DEGREE CELSIUS
WATERS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE FIXES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD, AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 240502Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE CENTER
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), AND TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT A 232335Z ASCAT PASS WITH 40 KNOT WINDS. WANING OUTFLOW
AND UNSUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY LOW (15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. TS 09W
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND INCREASING IN FORWARD
SPEED, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR BEFORE TURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES OVER WATER BY TAU 48. GIVEN THE TIGHT
WRAPPING OF THE WIND FIELD, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS, REDUCED OUTFLOW,
COOL SSTS, AND INTERACTIONS WITH 07W. TS 09W WILL COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS ITS ENERGY BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN TY NORU.
HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TS 09W COULD TRANSITION INTO A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THIS TIME. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING TO HIGH
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241728Z SSMIS 91GHZ DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AND THE
LOWER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO
45 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE, WITH WANING OUTFLOW, COOL SST (25C), AND MODERATE (15-
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. KULAP CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH AND BINARY INTERACTION WITH TY 07W, WHICH IS LOCATED 465NM TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR BEFORE TURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES OVER WATER BY TAU 48. GIVEN THE TIGHT
WRAPPING OF THE WIND FIELD, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VWS, REDUCED OUTFLOW,
COOL SSTS, AND INTERACTIONS WITH 07W. TS 09W WILL COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS ITS ENERGY BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN TY NORU.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING TO HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND
PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MARGINAL SST
(25 TO 26C) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TS KULAP CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND BINARY INTERACTION WITH TY 07W, WHICH IS
LOCATED 440NM TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR BEFORE
TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. TS 09W WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36
AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TY NORU.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING TO HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512 NM
NORTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS RAGGED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. INTERACTION WITH 09W IS
CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON A RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
2.0-2.5 (30-35 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MARGINAL SST (25 TO 26C) AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. TS KULAP HAS DEFLECTED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE
BINARY INTERACTION WITH TY 07W, WHICH IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400
NM TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TY NORU. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING TO HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN33 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (KULAP) WARNING NR 020
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 31.7N 151.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 151.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 31.0N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 30.6N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 150.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, OBLONG LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 252143Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH WEAK, SHALLOW BANDING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAKENED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. TD 09W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TY 07W
AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT
WEAKLY WITH TY NORU. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 8 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
(ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Like a forgotten child. Kulap actually displayed an eye on visible imagery. Should be the 2nd typhoon this year but is outkast. Hope it gets upgraded postseason.

[euro6208]

Kulap decimated.