WPAC: KULAP - Low

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:40 am

EURO deepens this to 943 mb and stall it right after.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:55 am

GFS trending weaker with this. Peaks it at only 973 mb.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#23 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:25 pm

Euro will possibly trend weaker as well for its latest run as it now significantly intensifies 95W.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#24 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:48 pm

I'd estimate around 45 knots...Very nice system
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:05 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 200530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 160.0E TO 29.8N 154.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
200500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N
159.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.3N 159.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 159.6E, APPROXIMATELY
1140 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INO THE CENTER. A 192318Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED LLCC. A 192232Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH ISOLATED 30-KNOT
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT
SOURCE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTER PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES 29 TO 30C ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM RETAINS SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, IT APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING
TO A TROPICAL, WARM-CORE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS,
HOWEVER, SOME CONSOLIDATION APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210530Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:35 pm

Quite fascinating to watch the latest EURO run. It does a direct Fujiwhara effect with 95W.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:36 pm

TXPQ24 KNES 202107
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 20/2030Z

C. 24.3N

D. 176.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED UNDER A SMALL COLD OVERCAST MEASURING LESS THAN
1.5DEG. DT=2.0 MET AND PT ARE UNDEFINED BECAUSE SYSTEM WAS NON-TROPICAL
24HRS AGO. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:01 pm

18Z GFS much weaker. Only peaks this at 996 mb.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#29 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:10 pm

JMA at CI 2.0 at 00Z meaning that they would probably pull the trigger.

EDIT: Well JMA kept is as a TD at 00Z. Looks like they wanna upgrade it when the CI number reaches 2.5.
Last edited by NotoSans on Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#30 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:15 pm

97W INVEST 170721 0000 25.3N 177.0E WPAC 35 1008

Already at 35 knots but JTWC doesn't upgrade Subtropical storms.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 21, 2017 1:09 am

TPPN11 PGTW 210332

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (SW OF MIDWAY)

B. 21/0300Z

C. 26.13N

D. 177.43E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. ST2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. SUBTROPICAL METHOD YIELDS A 2.5.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#32 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 21, 2017 1:35 am

Image

WTPN22 PGTW 210530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210421ZJUL17//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.5N 177.2E TO 29.4N 169.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
210500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N
177.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.6N 177.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 177.2E, APPROXIMATELY
335 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 210358Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A SMALL LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, HOWEVER, CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
AND ORGANIZED AS THE UPPER-LOW HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST DAY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND COCOONED FROM
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH RAPID DEEPENING AND
CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30
TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220530Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 124.7E.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#33 Postby NotoSans » Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:16 am

Upgraded to TS Kulap by the JMA.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#34 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Jul 21, 2017 4:50 am

Kulap is also now numbered 09W by the JTWC...

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#35 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 21, 2017 5:32 am

WDPN33 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 723 NM
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 09W HAS RAPIDLY TRANSITIONED FROM A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO A WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM BASED ON THE
CONSOLIDATING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND WEAK WARM CORE EVIDENT IN THE
MOST RECENT AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 210619Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
AND ORGANIZED AS THE UPPER-LOW HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST DAY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND IS COCOONED FROM
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS
FROM RJTD AND PGTW. TS 09W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS
POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DUE TO THE LIKELY BINARY INTERACTION WITH TD
07W, PLEASE REVIEW THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR TD 07W.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TS 09W SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC
MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS SUPPORT THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF COAMPS-TC, WHICH IS THE SOLE OUTLIER.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS 09W WILL APPROACH TD 07W
WITHIN 360 NM BY TAU 96 AND 250 NM BY TAU 120. CONSEQUENTLY, TS 09W
SHOULD BEGIN BINARY INTERACTION, WEAKEN AND SLOW FORWARD MOTION. IN
GENERAL, DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF TD 07W AND THE EXPECTED DISRUPTION OF UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Kulap

#36 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jul 21, 2017 4:22 pm

WTPN33 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING NR 003
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 30.4N 175.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 175.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 32.1N 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 32.3N 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 32.6N 165.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 33.1N 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 33.8N 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 34.3N 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 34.3N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 173.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 807 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10W (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:45 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SYSTEM WHICH HAS A DRAMATICALLY
DECREASED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS MOSTLY SEPARATED FROM THE LLCC. A 212148Z AMSU 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A CORE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, BUT SINCE THIS TIME, NEARLY ALL
OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THIS LOW RESOLUTION MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND THE FACT THAT THE LLCC IS OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS. NEAR THE INTERAGENCY FIX LOCATION FROM RJTD AND PGTW THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES, WITH A SLIGHT BUMP
UP IN LINE WITH OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINAL, BUT DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT,
WITH STRAIGHT LINE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27 DEG
CELSIUS. TS 09W IS NOW TRACKING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT A RAPID
PACE OF AROUND 23 KNOTS ALONG THE BASE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. DUE TO THE LIKELY BINARY INTERACTION
WITH TS 07W, PLEASE REVIEW THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR TS
07W.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD STR TO THE NORTH, GENERALLY SLOWING
BEYOND TAU 12 AS THE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO SLACKEN
SLIGHTLY. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE STARTING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
TAU 48 AS VWS INCREASES, SSTS DECREASE TO BELOW 27 DEG CELSIUS AND
DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN TAU
48 AND 72, TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WEAK TD STRENGTH FOR A
SHORT PERIOD AS IT TAPS INTO A ROBUST OUTFLOW CHANNEL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING JET STREAM. ALL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH THE ONLY DISCREPANCY BEING THE FORWARD SPEED
BEING TOO SLOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS 09W WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
TS 07W AND CONSEQUENTLY WEAKEN AND SLOW FORWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE
TO BEING CAPTURED BY TS 07W SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. INTERACTION WITH A
STRONG (80-90 KNOTS) AFTER TAU 72 WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER
WATER BY TAU 96, WITH THE REMNANTS BECOMING ABSORBED INTO TS 07W
AFTER THIS POINT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, THERE IS LOW, BUT IMPROVING, CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:34 pm

Both recent ASCAT passes had 50 kt wind vectors just north of Kulap's center.

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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:01 pm

Should have want 50 knots based on the ascat above

WTPN33 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING NR 004
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 30.7N 172.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 172.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 31.1N 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 31.2N 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 31.7N 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 32.3N 161.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.6N 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.6N 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 171.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (NORU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KULAP - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:08 am

1900hurricane wrote:Both recent ASCAT passes had 50 kt wind vectors just north of Kulap's center.



Yeah seems like JTWC doesn't know ASCAT even exist. They concentrate more on the dvorak.
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