WPAC: KULAP - Low

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

WPAC: KULAP - Low

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:48 pm

Another invest has been tagged in the eastern WPac subtropics (on the International Date Line in fact). An upper level low appears to be trying to work its way down to the surface. American guidance has become rather aggressive in significantly intensifying a tropical cyclone from 97W over the warm subtropical WPac, some of the most abnormally warm waters in the world. I'm a little skeptical of such solutions, but I've actually been warming up to some type of tropical development from this invest. The subtropical jetstream will lie nearby though, so shear could certainly be a big player in this system's lifecycle.

97W INVEST 170719 0000 24.0N 180.0E WPAC 15 1014


Image

Image

Image
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:22 am, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#2 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:50 pm

I'm excited to track this one. Some of the models have been entertaining to watch.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:08 pm

If this ends up becoming an intense tropical cyclone, it'll entirely make up for the quiet start in my mind, but even in the Western Pacific, typhoons are rare that far north, especially away from the Kuroshio Current. 30ºC waters at 30ºN gives it a chance though if everything else cooperates. Some of the guidance solutions remind me of two higher latitude scenarios from last year. The first, Conson, ended up being a flop. The second, Lionrock, became a 120 kt category 4. Regardless to how it plays out in the end, the intrigue certainly is there.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#4 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:31 pm

Seems like a similar situation to that of what the GFS is showing in the CPAC at 30n - a ULL working its way down and crossing into the WPAC.

Are waters always this warm at 30n in the WPac?
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#5 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:34 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Seems like a similar situation to that of what the GFS is showing in the CPAC at 30n - a ULL working its way down and crossing into the WPAC.

Are waters always this warm at 30n in the WPac?

They're a couple degrees warmer than average, but it's not too crazy to get a storm developing in this spot.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#6 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:54 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Seems like a similar situation to that of what the GFS is showing in the CPAC at 30n - a ULL working its way down and crossing into the WPAC.

Are waters always this warm at 30n in the WPac?

If the situation is the one you pointed out to me yesterday, this is in fact the incipient disturbance of that solution.

Subtropical WPac waters can support tropical cyclone development as Cody mentioned, but according to Levi Cowan's sea surface temperature anomalies, we're running a >2.0ºC anomaly at the moment.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#7 Postby NotoSans » Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:13 am

The ECMWF is now showing a 936-mb typhoon, very similar to the GFS solutions.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#8 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:14 am

The 00z ECMWF is also now developing 97W into a strong Typhoon... Has it quickly intensifying beyond 48hrs...

Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:57 am

The best of two worlds...WPAC and CPAC at 180...

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:00 am

97W INVEST 170719 0600 24.1N 179.3E WPAC 15 1010
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:13 am

GFS had this at 915 mb but latest 06Z has it peaking at 939 mb before recurving.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#12 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:27 am

Looks like an Atlantic system forming from a mid-latitude trough except much more impressive.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#13 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:07 pm

The 12Z GFS (first official run of the new version) has come down in intensity some for 97W, which looks reasonable to me. intense WPac typhoons around 30*N are fairly uncommon, especially this far east.
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:20 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.1N 178.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 327 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD, ELONGATED, AND EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC, WITH
REFORMATION OF THE LLCC LIKELY AS THE WARM CORE BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A HIGH-SHEAR, BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE SYSTEM TO
TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ONCE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DECOUPLES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AT THIS TIME, THE
DISTURBANCE HAS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST, WITH MODERATE (20-25KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C).
THE DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#15 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:38 pm

Nice blow up of convection over the northern quad of the LLC. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
0 likes   

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 418
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

Re: WPAC: Invest 97W

#16 Postby Grifforzer » Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:22 pm

RSMC Tokyo
03:00 AM JST July 20 2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 25N 179E WEST SLOWLY.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:20 pm

TXPQ24 KNES 192130
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 19/2030Z

C. 22.4N

D. 178.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 1.25DEG FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST
MEASURING LESS THAN 1.5DEG. DT=1.0 MET=1.0 PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:03 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.1N 178.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 177.3E, APPROXIMATELY
430 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BASED ON ITS LOCATION (DIRECTLY UNDER A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW); ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED POLEWARD AND EAST OF THE EXPOSED, BROAD
CENTER; WEAK BAROCLINICITY; AND ASYMMETRIC MOISTURE ENVELOPE IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH MARGINAL VALUES. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 200410Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EAST QUADRANT WITH DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. A 192136Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD WITH MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSISTING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#19 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:59 am

There's also now a Gale Warning from JMA for 97W(b)...

Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:29 am

TXPQ24 KNES 200327
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 20/0230Z

C. 22.7N

D. 177.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. SHEAR MATRIX PATTERN
WITH LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES GREATER THAN 1.25 DEGREE FROM SMALL
OVERCAST YIELDING A DT OF LESS THAN 1.0. MET AND PT = 0.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests