WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:53 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (LAN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS OF A GRADUALLY ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE NEAR
OVERSHOOTING TOPS VISIBLE IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), BUT IS SITUATED ALONG A SHEAR
GRADIENT, WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (30 DEGREES C) AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE
SHORT TERM. AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH JAPAN AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AMPLIFIES
TOWARD THE EAST. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
AND ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 72, TS 25W IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A 90 KNOT SYSTEM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 25W WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST, WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT LATER TAUS. GIVEN WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
LATITUDE AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY SYNOPTIC FORCING
AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF
THE TURN IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. FURTHERMORE, THE GFS AND NAVGEM
SUGGEST THAT MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS COULD FORM ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF TS 25W, WHICH WOULD COMPLICATE THE DYNAMICS. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT TS 25W WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION. THUS, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC
TRACK FORECAST, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER UNTIL THE FUTURE
STRUCTURE OF TS 25W BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:43 am

Image

Like the rest, JMA forecast some pretty fast deepening. They have a typhoon in just 24 hours, earlier than JTWC's.

TS 1721 (Lan)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 16 October 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 16 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°55' (10.9°)
E135°05' (135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 17 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°00' (11.0°)
E132°50' (132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 180 km (95 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 18 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°05' (13.1°)
E132°05' (132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 19 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°05' (16.1°)
E131°35' (131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:47 am

WDPN32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (LAN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS HAVE MOSTLY MAINTAINED DEPTH AND DEGREE OF WRAP INTO A MORE
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 160403Z NPP ATMS MICROWAVE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T2.5 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS)
THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 30 DEG CELSIUS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD IN THE PERENNIALLY WARM PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UP TO TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS THE STR
RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH JAPAN.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ALLOW FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 72, TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A
MODERATE TYPHOON AT 90 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS LAN WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT LATER TAUS. GIVEN THE WARM SSTS AND FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
ENHANCED BY STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS 25W IS
FORECAST TO REACH 110 KNOTS BY TAU 120. GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS THE ERRATIC OUTLIER TO THE LEFT OF
THE MODEL ENVELOPE, A POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A CYCLONE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, THE GFS AND
NAVGEM MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST ANOTHER CIRCULATION COULD FORM ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TS 25W, WHICH WOULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THE
MOTION DYNAMICS. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY TO
MID PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTERWARD.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:02 am

Even stronger on the EURO. 927 mb moving north towards Japan.

Image
Image

GFS 896 mb.

Image
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:19 am

HWRF has a powerful Major typhoon out from this.
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:26 pm

Image

New peak is 130 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (LAN)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 161638Z NPP IMAGE INDICATES THE SYSTEM CENTER
IS LIKELY DISPLACED JUST WEST OF THIS CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION,
THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT,
WARM SST (30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TS 25W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS
OF RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW SET AT
130 KNOTS (SUPERTYPHOON STRENGTH) AT TAU 96.
B. TS 25W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR TO THE NORTH WEAKENS IN REPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. THIS WILL RE-
ORIENT THE STR IN A POLEWARD FLOW CONFIGURATION, ESSENTIALLY A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTATION, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TRACK
ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 72. DESPITE THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING SYNOPTIC
STEERING PATTERN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. TS LAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 25W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 130
KNOTS BY TAU 96 THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY EAST OF OKINAWA AS IT BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. TS 25W WILL REMAIN A VERY LARGE SYSTEM WITH EXTENSIVE
GALE-FORCE WINDS, ENHANCED BY A COLD SURGE OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS
AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER JAPAN. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE
ETT JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER HONSHU BUT WILL REMAIN A
STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTH EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. DUE TO POSITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE NORTHWARD TURN,
THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:54 pm

Probably around 45 knots considering the newest microwave doesn't show any signs of a eyewall yet but it does appear to be strengthening slowly.
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:04 pm

The surge in the monsoon southwesterlies has really enhanced the size of the circulation.

Image
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:28 pm

Now a Severe TS by JMA...
Both JMA and JTWC 50kts as of 00Z...
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:33 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (LAN)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
162212Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM
ALL AGENCIES AND A 16/2213Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT, WARM SST (30C)
AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TS 25W IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 25W IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STR TO THE NORTH WEAKENS IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. THIS WILL RE-
ORIENT THE STR IN A POLEWARD FLOW CONFIGURATION, ESSENTIALLY A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTATION, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TRACK
ACCELERATION THROUGH TAU 72. DESPITE THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING SYNOPTIC
STEERING PATTERN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. TS LAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 25W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 130
KNOTS BY TAU 96 THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY EAST OF OKINAWA AS IT BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. TS 25W WILL REMAIN A VERY LARGE SYSTEM WITH EXTENSIVE
GALE-FORCE WINDS, ENHANCED BY A COLD SURGE OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS
AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER JAPAN. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE
ETT JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER HONSHU BUT WILL REMAIN A
STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTH EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. DUE TO POSITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE NORTHWARD TURN,
THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Severe Tropical Storm

#51 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:23 am

The large, intensifying (Severe)Tropical Storm Lan over the Philippine Sea, shortly before being engulfed by darkness (sunset)...

COMS VIS Imagery
10-17-2017 7:45am UTC
Satellite image from Korea Met Administration(KMA)
Image
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:32 am

Image

It is huge
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:52 am

WDPN32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (LAN)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM NORTHWEST
OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
170637Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS BROAD BANDING CONVECTION WITH
PULSATING CENTRAL CONVECTION SHOWING SLOW CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 170117Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
PATCH OF 45 KNOT WIND BARBS ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON SCATTEROMETRY
DATA, AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), AND A 170635Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT
SOURCE FORMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO A TUTT CELL SOME DISTANCE TO
THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE AND SHOWING SIGNS OF
IMPROVEMENT. AVAILABLE OCEANIC ENERGY IS ALSO NOTABLY HIGH WITH
EXTREMELY WARM SSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 31 CELSIUS AND ACCOMPANYING HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. CURRENTLY TS 25W IS DRIFTING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 25W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS BEFORE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS SUFFICIENTLY
DRIVING THE SYSTEM ON A STEADY NORTHWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 72 HOURS AS THE POINT
SOURCE ALIGNS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE SYSTEM FURTHER
CONSOLIDATES. THE SLOW TO MODERATE TRACK MOTION OVER EXTREMELY HIGH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WHICH WILL FUEL AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE
REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK SPEED AND TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU
72, BUT MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SEPARATION ARE NOTED AND
ATTRIBUTED TO THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
UP TO TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 25W WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS
A SUPER TYPHOON THROUGH TAU 96. THE EXTENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO EXTEND A NOTABLE DISTANCE FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER,
ENHANCED BY A COLD SURGE OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. AROUND TAU 120 TS
25W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE JET AND START
TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK TRAJECTORY, BUT DIFFERS GREATLY
IN SPEED WITH A 590NM SEPARATION BETWEEN POSITIONS AT TAU 120. ECMWF
IS NOW THE WESTERN OUTLIER WITH THE WIDEST AND SLOWEST TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:51 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 OCT 2017 Time : 111000 UTC
Lat : 10:20:08 N Lon : 132:13:09 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 988.5mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -86.3C Cloud Region Temp : -85.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.9 degrees

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:54 am

SATCON is well into Typhoon territory now.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10170923
SATCON: MSLP = 973 hPa MSW = 67 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 65.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 72 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 290 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:10 am

GFS 888mb, EURO 928mb.

Image
Image

HWRF

Image
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:00 am

I don't see many reasons why this shouldn't become a super typhoon. I'll also be watching how Lan impacts the midlatitudes as it appears to help amplify the wavetrain leading to an impressive trough over the east coast near Halloween.
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:09 am

Image

Lan is currently quasi stationary but it looks like it wont run out of fuel too soon. Lan is the first TC this year to truly harness the stored energy in the lower latitudes of the Tropical Western Pacific.
I think this TC has the potential to wield a Full CDG ring just like Nuri
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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:14 am

RL3AO wrote:I don't see many reasons why this shouldn't become a super typhoon. I'll also be watching how Lan impacts the midlatitudes as it appears to help amplify the wavetrain leading to an impressive trough over the east coast near Halloween.



 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/919178085425188864


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Re: WPAC: LAN - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:32 am

Image
Image

Very much a typhoon now. Just imagine the ACE lost only because we don't have recon.
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