Wpac;91W INVEST

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Digital-TC-Chaser
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Wpac;91W INVEST

#1 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:54 pm

Location: 6.1°N 161.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

Image

Image

edit remove run
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wpac;91W INVEST

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:05 pm

That HWRF run appears to be from the last 91W, which ended up becoming Lan.
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Re: Wpac;91W INVEST

#3 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:20 pm

thanks :) time for me to see a optometrist.
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Re: Wpac;91W INVEST

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:31 pm

Image
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Re: Wpac;91W INVEST

#5 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:08 pm

JTWC up to LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N
161.3E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191707Z 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS AN OBSCURE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION DISORGANIZED AROUND AN ELONGATED CENTER. A
191056Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH THE HEAVY CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
REVEAL FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, 5-10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND 28-30C SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: Wpac;91W INVEST

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:13 pm

A surface trough stretching eastward from west of Chuuk to a weak
circulation centered just south of Kosrae then continues eastward to
beyond the date line at 7N. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the trough will continue to affect Pohnpei and
Kosrae states through Tuesday. This activity will continue to
progress westward, bringing scattered showers to Chuuk Tuesday
night. The latest time/height data shows a fairly moist pattern
continuing from Chuuk to Kosrae though the week. Shower coverage is
expected to decrease to isolated by Tuesday evening at Pohnpei and
Kosrae and Wednesday at Chuuk, however, an unsettled pattern will
continue across the region through the end of the week. For Majuro,
borderline scattered showers are seen over the atoll this morning,
with a large area of scattered to numerous showers a little farther
east. Showers may decrease to isolated for a short time today, but
expect the area to the east to be over the atoll by early afternoon.
Models do show a bit drier pattern for Majuro by Tuesday evening.
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Re: Wpac;91W INVEST

#7 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:50 pm

Image

Image

Image

91w screen shots approx time 15.40 pm EDT.Trying out a new capture tool.
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Re: Wpac;91W INVEST

#8 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:37 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 158.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 159.5E, APPROXIMATELY 117
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL TURNING WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200421Z 89 GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWS WEAK
CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING AND A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. A
192333Z ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS 15-20 KNOT WIND BARBS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP THE DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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Re: Wpac;91W INVEST

#9 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:53 am

Literally no model support from EURO or GFS.
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Re: Wpac;91W INVEST

#10 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:34 am

Image
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 159.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
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