WPAC: INVEST 95W

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:35 pm

No changes made to the inherited forecast. Latest model run still
shows a developing circulation moving through Micronesia near Yap.
A near-equatorial trough stretches eastward from west of 130W
through a couple weak circulations centered near 5N135E, 5N144E
and 2N151E. It appears the circulation centered south of Chuuk at
2N151E is the one the models tend to develop. The GFS is now the
least aggressive with this system, however, all the models now
show the greatest development after the circulation moves west of
Yap. Whether or not a significant tropical cyclone develops, the
models are all in fairly good agreement that Guam and the CNMI
will see a fairly wet pattern beginning this weekend. Scattered
showers are still expected to develop over the islands Saturday
night, with the risk of thunderstorms continuing through the first
half of next week.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#22 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:38 pm

Image

Slowly organising within a diffluent trough .


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:34 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.7N 151.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#24 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:47 am

See if it comes back 95S was listed as dissipated by JTWC it went on to become TC CEMPAKA.
.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:38 am

Image

95W INVEST 171206 1200 5.1N 149.8E WPAC 15 1004
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:41 am

While 95W has been given the axe for now, the models still show a
large area of disturbed weather developing over the next few days,
with a weak circulation moving westward well south of Guam Thursday
through the weekend. Both GFS and ECMWF then show significant
development as it passes 140E on Sunday. This is a much more
realistic forecast than we have seen thus far. But as far as
Marianas weather is concerned, the forecast of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the weekend into Monday still looks
reasonable, since the disturbed weather will still affect our area.
Thus, little change to the forecast for now, unless something
unexpected happens down there.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:46 am

Strongest run yet from EURO.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:53 am

GFS on crack. 00Z had a 893 mb typhoon making landfall near Catanduanes Island however 06Z doesn't even develop it until after it passes the Philippines and making a beeline for Hainan Island. :roll:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#29 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:00 pm

annnddd... it's gone.

Image

NRL/JTWC probably dropped it due to the lack of convection, but a low/circulation appears to still exist in there (last position by NRL/JTWC is near 5N 150E @ 12Z)... may get redesignated as Invest 96W.
Anyway, the recent/latest GFS and ECMWF runs are less-aggressive with development.

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