WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Instantaneous DT is 6.0 for light grey eye embedded in a white CDO. Jelawat probably isn't that strong, but I bet it's stronger than the current estimates. I'm kinda leaning 95 kt for 00Z personally.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 300037

A. TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 29/2350Z

C. 15.71N

D. 137.43E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 5.5.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1903Z 15.42N 136.93E SSMS
29/2108Z 15.48N 137.08E SSMS
29/2123Z 15.50N 137.17E SSMS


VEERKAMP

[1900hurricane]

JMA now has Jelawat as a typhoon.

TY 1803 (Jelawat)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 30 March 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 30 March>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°40' (15.7°)
E137°20' (137.3°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 31 March>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°20' (18.3°)
E140°00' (140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 1 April>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°50' (18.8°)
E141°55' (141.9°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 2 April>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°05' (19.1°)
E144°20' (144.3°)
Direction and speed of movement E Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

[euro6208]

Up to 80 knots.

03W JELAWAT 180330 0000 15.7N 137.4E WPAC 80 970

[1900hurricane]

SATCON just updated with the recent microwave data. Looks like the estimate is up around 90-95 kt right now, which is more or less what I was thinking a few posts up.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I would not be surprised if this is 100kts 1/min.Pin/E

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT)
WARNING NR 022//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE, THEREFORE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 292230Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWED
AN EYE FEATURE WITH ONE PRIMARY FEEDER BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (77-90 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
INCREASING BUT LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 03W IS TRACKING OVER WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALSO AIDING
INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE CYCLONE HAS TRACKED
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE (LOW SHEAR, WARM SST)
ENVIRONMENT AND INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12. BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24, THE
CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE INCREASED VWS AND START TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BEYOND TAU 24, THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE STORM WILL
WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY JELAWAT WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW
NORTHEAST TRACK AS A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTH COMPETES WITH
THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST TO STEER THE CYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS
NORTHEAST, NEARING THE STJ TO THE NORTH AND PASSING OVER COOLER
SSTS. GENERALLY, AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES IN THE
COMPETING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE AND STR. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THE MID-
LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. AS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WIDE
SPREAD IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

The agencies are underestimating the intensity of this Typhoon. Look at that pinhole eye.Maybe a equivalent cat 3?

[Highteeld]

Looks to be about cat 3

Edit: really cranking up in the last hour

[euro6208]

Up to 5.5. Cat 3 next update?

TPPN10 PGTW 300321

A. TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 30/0230Z

C. 15.92N

D. 137.69E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.5. MET YIELDS 4.5
AND PT YIELDS 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/2230Z 15.62N 137.27E MMHS


VEERKAMP

[1900hurricane]

The eye is small, but it isn't one of those micro <=5 nm pinhole eyes. It just has that illusion since it is still clearing out. That said, this is probably going to be something I'd assess as a high category 3 or category 4 for 06Z. Instantaneous DT has actually risen to 7.0 for a dark grey eye embedded in cold medium grey.

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 300233
SPSMY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1221 PM ChST Fri Mar 30 2018

GUZ005-310245-
ALAMAGAN-PAGAN-AGRIHAN
1221 PM ChST Fri Mar 30 2018

...HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEAS ACROSS NORTHERN CNMI...

BUILDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST SWELL GENERATED BY TYPHOON JELAWAT WEST
OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS WILL CAUSE SURF AND SEAS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CNMI BY SATURDAY EVENING.

SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL RISE AND REACH HAZARDOUS
LEVELS OF 9 TO 11 FEET DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE
AND BECOME 8 TO 10 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING. BOTH SURF AND SEAS COULD
BUILD EVEN HIGHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVOID VENTURING NEAR REEF LINES
AND EXPOSED BEACHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
LARGE BREAKING WAVES CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND CAUSE SERIOUS INJURIES...
STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIFE THREATENING. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL BY BOATS SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
NEXT WEEK.

JELAWAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT MIGHT PASS NEAR THE NORTHERN
TIP OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN
BUT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

RESIDENTS ON THESE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY ON THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION AND STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICES.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

03W JELAWAT 180330 0000 15.7N 137.4E WPAC 90 956

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2018 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 16:01:15 N Lon : 137:44:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 978.3mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 5.4 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : -10.2C Cloud Region Temp : -79.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.1 degrees

****************************************************

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This is a Category 5.

[euro6208]

This is a Category 5.

Really bold to say but after watching a few Atlantic storms last year, it could very well be.

[Sciencerocks]

This is a Category 5.

Agree with that. What an amazing turn around for this storm!

[NotoSans]

JMA's intensity estimate is surprisingly low. Personally I would give this system a T6.5.

[StruThiO]

Agreed and one word incredible, Raw ADT's in the 7's and March should not go to together. Amazing storm

[euro6208]

Wow.. Category 4!

03W JELAWAT 180330 0600 16.2N 138.1E WPAC 115 937