WPAC: MARIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#481 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:06 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR
30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS GRADUAL WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A 30NM
OBLONG EYE, WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION.
A 092201Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CONCENTRIC RINGS AND A DEFINED
MOAT INDICATIVE OF THE ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW RANGING FROM 5.5 TO
6.0 (102-115 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 106 KNOTS. THE 10/0110Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AT 5.2 (95
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY AS WELL AS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TY MARIA IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. TY 10W
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER GENERALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY, AS IT TRACKS JUST NORTH OF TAIWAN, DUE TO INCREASING
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. TY MARIA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24 AND WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT RECURVES OVER EASTERN CHINA WITH DISSIPATION
FORECAST BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#482 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:07 am

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1016545220966604800




JMA @ 968.1 - 14:00 local time


METAR - 967
METAR: ROMY 100500Z 02035G66KT 1000 R22/0900VP1800D SHRA FEW005 BKN009 SCT015CB 26/26 Q0967
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#483 Postby Twisted-core » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:24 am

:uarrow: Is that inside the eye or outta pressure.
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#484 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:43 am

Twisted-core wrote::uarrow: Is that inside the eye or outta pressure.



Not yet in the inner eye, pressure still falling.
 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1016554138706927616


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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#485 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:11 am

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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#486 Postby NotoSans » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:19 am

Looks like central pressure is around 940 mb.
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#487 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:22 am

Latest METAR - about 20 mins ago.

950 mb

METAR: ROMY 100600Z 36040G65KT 330V040 1000 R22/0550V1600D +SHRA SCT004 BKN009 SCT015CB 26/26 Q0950
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#488 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:57 am

Eye!!!

946 mb inside the eye according to Jim Edds

JMA has it at 945.7 mb - 16:00 local

METAR (ROMY) - 945 mb
METAR: ROMY 100700Z 11009KT 070V140 2000 R22/0900V1600U -SHRA BR FEW004 BKN012 27/27 Q0945



ADT @ 950 to 951 mb :)
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#489 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:49 am

Mega Eye.
Image
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#490 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:40 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#491 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:52 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR
31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTHWEST
OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE AND RAGGED 30-NM EYE,
THE RESULT OF A PREVIOUS EYE WALL REPLACEMENT. SPIRAL BANDS HAVE ALSO
REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND FEEDING INTO THE EYE WITH MINOR SIGNS OF
FRAGMENTATION AND WARMING ALONG THE CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP TO ACCOUNT FOR A SMALL SLANT AS EVIDENCED BY
A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 100449Z ATMS PASS SLIGHTLY
TRAILING THE 100450Z 1KM VIS EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
WEAKENING POLEWARD CHANNEL. ALONG-TRACK SST VALUES REMAIN WARM AND
CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG AN EXTENSION
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STEERED BY THE STR, TY MARIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AS OUTFLOW
WEAKENS AND SSTS BEGIN TO COOL, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
NEAR TAU 18, AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FOZHOU, CHINA, WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF INLAND CHINA. BY TAU
48, IT WILL BE REDUCED TO A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION OVER LAND. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

Impressive...

Image

Closeup of the expected landfall. Now zeroing on +2.8 million Ningde. Not far north from Fuzhou.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#492 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:20 am

TPPN11 PGTW 100917

A. TYPHOON 10W (MARIA)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 24.93N

D. 124.84E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0449Z 24.52N 125.77E ATMS
10/0558Z 24.77N 125.42E SSMI
10/0728Z 24.77N 125.23E MMHS
10/0740Z 24.80N 125.08E SSMS


LOWE

TXPQ21 KNES 100907
TCSWNP

A. 10W (MARIA)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 24.9N

D. 124.8E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0/W1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED
IN MG FOR A DT=5.0 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=5.5
PT=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#493 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:23 am

When the eye was over Miyako island...

Image
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#494 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:36 am

Back end of Typhoon Maria in Miyakojima
 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1016597867861929984


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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#495 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:00 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#496 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:14 pm

I think Maria is attempting to go Annular before landfall - I don't know if she had enough time to pull the trick but what I'm sure is that she carries a massive storm surge potential- she has the size, strength, speed, right angle of approach and favorable bathymetry.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#497 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:06 pm

JMA at 85 kts.

TY 1808 (Maria)
Issued at 19:45 UTC, 10 July 2018

<Analysis at 19 UTC, 10 July>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N26°20' (26.3°)
E121°55' (121.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 500 km (270 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)

<Estimate for 20 UTC, 10 July>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N26°25' (26.4°)
E121°35' (121.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 500 km (270 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°55' (26.9°)
E118°20' (118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 11 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°25' (28.4°)
E115°30' (115.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 12 July>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N31°30' (31.5°)
E112°20' (112.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#498 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:31 pm

Not sure if this is a major hurricane anymore but regardless, this poses a 3 way storm threat of surge, winds, and flooding rains. Eyewall starting to brush the China coastline.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#499 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:50 pm

Image
Image

WDPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MARIA) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 76 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A 30NM OBLONG EYE. EIR ALSO
INDICATES SOME EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT DUE TO THE INITIAL INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN. OVERALL, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, TY 10W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS), SLIGHTLY
COOLER SST (28C) AND VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TY MARIA IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MARIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06, TY 10W WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MARIA - Typhoon

#500 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:24 pm

Using the lowest pressure from Miyakojima that I found (945 mb), I end up with a range from 95 kt (background pressure adjusted AH77) to 105 kt (KZC). The one place where I've found AH77 to shine is in concentric eyewall situations, hence its use here. Wind reports definitely seemed on the lower end of the spectrum (highest gust I saw was only about 88 kt). I probably wouldn't go any higher than 95 kt for the intensity when Maria crossed Miyakojima, which was around 06Z yesterday.
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