WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#41 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:15 am

11W ELEVEN 180715 1200 19.1N 128.1E WPAC 25 1002
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#42 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:35 am

First warning from JTWC.

Image
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#43 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:40 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151727Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE
PROVIDES EVIDENCE THAT THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED
AND DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH CLEARLY DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC. THIS SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS, AND BROAD EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE
WITH CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HINDERING
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. TD 11W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THIS UNUSUALLY STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
STR IS PRODUCING CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAST TRACK SPEEDS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW UNTIL TAU 48, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY SLOWLY. AFTER TAU 48, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48
AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS HAINAN ISLAND WITH FURTHER
WEAKENING AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE
FAST TRACK SPEEDS AND GENERALLY MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND OVER ROUGH
TERRAIN AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS NOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#44 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:55 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#45 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:27 am

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 07160043
SATCON: MSLP = 997 hPa MSW = 42 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 40.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 47 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 150 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 996 hPa 43 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUL160340
CIMSS AMSU: 997 hPa 34 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 07160043
ATMS: 1002.5 hPa 29.5 knots Date: 07151724
SSMIS: 998.0 hPa 42.0 knots Date: 07152223
CIRA ATMS: hPa knots Date:
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#46 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:36 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE CONSOLIDATING AS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK
INUNDATE THE TD. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL-SIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION
(APPROXIMATELY 160 NM ACROSS) REMAINS SHALLOW, ASYMMETRIC, AND OFFSET
SOUTHWARD FROM THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.5 FROM RJTD,
PGTW, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND BROAD EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE. ALONG
TRACK SSTS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TD 11W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AT A FASTER
THAN NORMAL PACE DUE TO THE STRONG AND DEEP STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR. THE CYCLONE IS POISED TO ENTER THE LUZON STRAIT AND INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL TRACK ACROSS HAINAN
ISLAND, THE GULF OF TONKIN, THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM
JUST SOUTH OF HANOI NEAR TAU 54. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL PERSIST AND PROMOTE MODEST INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS
NEAR TAU 36. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL MOSTLY BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR ITS RAPID DECAY, DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN CAMBODIAN JUNGLE
BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#47 Postby NotoSans » Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:02 pm

This should be a tropical storm
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Re: WPAC: 11W - Tropical Depression

#48 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:55 pm

Yeah, 12Zish ASCAT passes each had a few 35 kt vectors. Not a pretty system at all though.
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:23 pm

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm SON-TINH.

TS 1809 (Son-tinh)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 17 July 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 17 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°25' (19.4°)
E118°30' (118.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°05' (19.1°)
E114°00' (114.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 18 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°30' (18.5°)
E110°00' (110.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (19 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 19 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°05' (19.1°)
E106°40' (106.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 20 July>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N20°00' (20.0°)
E104°40' (104.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:26 pm

Image

JTWC upgrades to TS status
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:26 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI
LOOP AND A 162216Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 (30 KTS) TO
T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES, AND IS SLIGHTLY UNDER A
162031Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VWS AND THAT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING. ALONG TRACK SSTS ARE HIGHLY
CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TD 11W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH, AND HAS ACCELERATED AS
IT ENTERED THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD. AS
ITS FORWARD MOTION ACCELERATES, IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON HAINAN ISLAND IN 24 HOURS, AND IMPACT NORTHERN VIETNAM JUST AFTER
TAU 36. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND
PROMOTE MODEST INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 40 KTS BEFORE TAU 24,
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ON HAINAN. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION FROM
HAINAN AND VIETNAM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WESTWARD TRACK AND MARGINAL
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TREND, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:44 pm

Relentless moderate to occasionally intense rains over Greater Manila. Malacañang Palace suspends classes Manila-wide. Severe flooding now being reported all over the news. Weather station indicating rainfall now approaching 4 inches.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:28 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH IS QUICKLY TRACKING
WESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A 170600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM KNES
AND HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD AND A 170507Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS TS 11W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
PROVIDING MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, RANGING BETWEEN 27 TO 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 11W IS TRACKING WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK QUICKLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THIS STEERING PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MINOR
INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH
HAINAN ISLAND, AFTER TAU 12, WILL INHIBIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. TS
11W WILL EMERGE OVER WARM SEA WATER IN THE GULF OF TONKIN AROUND TAU
18 WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. TS 11W WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR TAU 30 AND DISSIPATE AS IT
TRACKS INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:58 am

Starting to actually look like something, although it is scooting westward at a pretty good clip towards Hainan.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:00 am

40 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TS 11W REMAINS A COMPACT SYSTEM WHICH CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
TRACK WESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 171104Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS COMPACT
BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS TS 11W IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE PROVIDING MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT ONLY WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, RANGING
BETWEEN 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 11W IS TRACKING WESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 6.
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 6, LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND WILL
PREVENT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. WARM SEA WATER IN THE GULF OF TONKIN
WILL HELP TS 11W MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24. TS
11W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:00 am

TXPQ22 KNES 170953
TCSWNP

A. 11W (SON-TINH)

B. 17/0830Z

C. 19.5N

D. 114.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DT
OF 3.0 IS BASED ON 0.6 BANDING AS CONFIRMED IN THE 0748Z SSMIS PASS. MET
AND PT ARE 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:05 am

Image

Here are some radar loops

Paracel Island (Xisha) radar loop
Image


Hainan (Seaport) radar loop
Image


Zhanjiang, Guandong radar loop
Image
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:59 pm

Landfall!


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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:40 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DIMINISHING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATED 171354Z MHS ASCAT
IMAGE AND THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED
ON THE 171315Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING SEVERAL 35 KT WIND BARBS AND A
COMPACT AREA OF 30 KT WIND BARBS WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER, WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AGREES WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM
JTWC, RJTD, AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS TS 11W IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE PROVIDING MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS STRUGGLING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE,
RANGING BETWEEN 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 11W IS TRACKING QUICKLY
WESTWARD BELOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE INITIAL FORECAST
TAUS BEFORE TS 11W MAKES LANDFALL ON HAINAN ISLAND AND IS NEGATIVELY
IMPACTED BY LAND INTERACTION. AFTER CROSSING HAINAN ISLAND, WARM SEA
WATER IN THE GULF OF TONKIN WILL HELP TS 11W MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24. TS 11W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN
VIETNAM SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS
INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:43 pm

I won't be surprised if Son-Tinh made landfall much stronger.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 07171827
SATCON: MSLP = 987 hPa MSW = 51 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 49.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 56 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 250 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 985 hPa 55 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUL172010
CIMSS AMSU: 979 hPa 59 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 07171200
ATMS: 987.0 hPa 45.5 knots Date: 07171827
SSMIS: 987.0 hPa 45.5 knots Date: 07171827
CIRA ATMS: 993 hPa 48 knots Date: 07170508

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