WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#81 Postby NotoSans » Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:28 am

:uarrow: That's for Ampil. Down to 30 knots for Son-tinh at 12Z. Still looks a bit high to me though.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#82 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:36 am

NotoSans wrote::uarrow: That's for Ampil. Down to 30 knots for Son-tinh at 12Z. Still looks a bit high to me though.


:lol: My brain has not been functioning the past few days...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#83 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:10 am

Not dead yet. Models bring this back into the Gulf of Tonkin and show significant development
0 likes   

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#84 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:32 am

Yup, the remnants are presently located over Laos-Vietnam area, but the computer models continue to support the idea of the remnants moving back into the Gulf of Tonkin on the next 24hrs or so, and potentially redeveloping into a tropical cyclone!

Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#85 Postby Alyono » Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:06 pm

Numerous fatalities have already occurred. More rain is expected, plus, the chance of redevelopment continues to increase

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-0 ... 338355.htm
0 likes   

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#86 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:10 am

As of 06Z, JTWC is now mentioning the remnants of Son-tinh and has it MEDIUM for the next 24hrs.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 11W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.9N 105.6E, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HANOI, VIETNAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER LAND, BUT MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GULF OF TONKIN AND THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. A 210301Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WHICH STILL HAS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER
AND TO THE SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND CURRENTLY, THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SOUTHEASTERN TRACK WITH
INTENSIFICATION QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Image
1 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#87 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:12 am

:uarrow: Impressive circulation on satellite loop. Definitely not gonna have a hard time to redevelop into a TC once it moves back into the gulf.
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#88 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:38 am

... and TCFA issued 8-)

Image
REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 11W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 105.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LAND, BUT
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF TONKIN AND THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. A 210301Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WHICH STILL HAS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER
AND TO THE SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND CURRENTLY, THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SOUTHEASTERN TRACK WITH
INTENSIFICATION QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#89 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:49 am

Image

Viet Tri radar

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#90 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 21, 2018 5:28 am

JMA is calling this a TD but making no reference to Son-Tinh

I wonder if they are going to give the next name on the list instead of keeping this as Son-Tinh
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#91 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:59 am

TPPN12 PGTW 211230

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (SON-TINH)

B. 21/1210Z

C. 19.50N

D. 106.50E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
POSITION BEING OVERLAND 24HRS AGO. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/0842Z 20.12N 106.62E MMHS


LEMBKE


TXPQ22 KNES 210952
TCSWNP

A. 11W (SON-TINH)

B. 21/0830Z

C. 20.5N

D. 106.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. GREATER THAN 0.2 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

#92 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:38 am

Image

REUPGRADED...

WDPN33 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (SON-TINH)
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD 11W CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 211200Z HIMAWARI INFRARED IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T1.0 (25 KNOTS) FROM KNES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 11W HAS EMERGED BACK OVER THE WARM
WATERS (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. TD 11W IS
EXPERIENCING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHICH IS ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (10 TO 15 KNOTS). TD 11W IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS REGENERATION, THEREFORE,
JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS ON TD 11W. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE SINCE TD 11W HAS REGENERATED AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 11W WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF TONKIN WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEADY INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT TERM. TD 11W WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12.
LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND AFTER TAU 12 WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE AFOREMENTIONED NER WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TD 11W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
EASTWARD AND THEN RECURVE NORTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD. TD 11W WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA NEAR TAU 42, WITH AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 11W WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 20 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

#93 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 21, 2018 11:14 am

20 dead in Vietnam and rising quickly

https://m.bdnews24.com/en/detail/world/1521354

almost seems like a Harvey-like flood may have occurred there
0 likes   

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 418
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

#94 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:45 pm

WTPQ20 BABJ 211800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 09 INITIAL TIME 211800 UTC
00HR 19.4N 107.1E 1000HPA 15M/S
MOVE ESE 15KM/H
P+06HR 19.2N 107.6E 1000HPA 15M/S
P+12HR 19.2N 108.2E 998HPA 18M/S
P+18HR 19.4N 108.8E 998HPA 18M/S
P+24HR 19.8N 109.3E 998HPA 18M/S=
NNNN

CMA gave Son-Tinh a new tropical depression number. (Original tropical depression was 06),

so I guess JMA would treat the system as a new cyclone if advisories begin.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

#95 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:25 am

Image

Regains TS status...

WDPN33 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (SON-TINH)
WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT IS ELONGATED (400NM DIAMETER) EAST TO WEST
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND A 220202Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND BROAD WIND FIELD THAT EXTENDS EAST OF
HAINAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING T1.0 TO T2.0 (25 TO 35
KNOTS), BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF 30 KNOTS
AND ONE 35 KNOT BARB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SLIGHTLY
INHIBITED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE
NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 11W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH THE WARM (29
TO 30 CELSIUS) WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. TS 11W IS TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF HAINAN AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE SHIFTS FROM THE NER
TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO RE-CURVE, REACHING THE AXIS OF CURVATURE AROUND TAU 30
BEFORE SETTLING ON A NORTHWESTERN TRACK DIRECTION SHORTLY AFTER TAU
36. OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TONKIN WILL ALLOW TS
11W TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 DESPITE SOME LAND
INTERACTION. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL
LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE TO
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, AT TAU 36 THERE IS A SPREAD OF OVER 100NM IN
THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS
OF THE TURN. THE SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

#96 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:51 pm

Image

WDPN33 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EAST WEST ELONGATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE OVER LAND AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
OF 33 KNOTS FROM SANYA ON HAINAN ISLAND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LIMITED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW DUE TO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE
NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 11W IS IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
OVER LAND. TS 11W HAS BEGUN TO RECURVE AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN HAINAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAINAN AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE SHIFTS
FROM THE NER TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE, REACHING THE AXIS OF CURVATURE
AROUND TAU 12 BEFORE SETTLING ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 24. OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE REGION WILL OFFSET LAND
INTERACTION AND ALLOW TS 11W TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU
24. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS COMBINED WITH CONTINUOUS LAND
INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CHINA, REACHING
FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,
EACH CONSENSUS MEMBER VARIES ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, CAUSING A SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
INCREASES THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

#97 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:51 am

Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

#98 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:33 am

Image

WDPN33 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH)
WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A VAST ELONGATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF 34 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 20
KNOTS. TS 11W IS LOCATED OVER LAND AND HAS BEGUN TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THAT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RECURVE OVER THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA JUST NORTH OF HAINAN. BY TAU 12, TS 11W WILL ROUND THE
AXIS OF CURVATURE AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST TAKES OVER AS
THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE AND WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD
AFTER TAU 12. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS AND DECENT OUTFLOW WILL BE
OFFSET BY THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION OVER RELATIVELY
FLAT TERRAIN. THE CONTINUOUS LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36,
AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVATURE, WITH A 50 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 24. THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

#99 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:38 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH)
WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CENTRAL REGION OF CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND A
231816Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONVECTIVE MASS WITH A
SUBTLE NOTCH FEATURE IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
A SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM PGTW AND T2.5 FROM KNES. THE
INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A SHIP OBSERVATION OF 29 KNOTS
REPORTED 40 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN. TS 14W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST. TS 11W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA PRIOR TO
TAU 12, WEST OF THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS AND
DECENT OUTFLOW WILL BE OFFSET BY THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION OVER THE RELATIVELY FLAT TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CHINA. THE
CONTINUOUS LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36, AT WHICH POINT
THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM RECURVED MUCH TIGHTER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
PREDICTED, MEANING THE SYSTEM IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREDICTED. DUE
TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED, THE
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Depression

#100 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:05 am

Image

WTPN33 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 026
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.7N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.2N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 108.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT TD 11W MADE LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF CHINA AT APPROXIMATELY 24/01-02Z AND IS WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND. MSI SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 240259Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM BEIHAI (59644) REVEAL WESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS AND A RECENT
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED WESTERLY WINDS OVER WATER, WHICH PROVIDES FURTHER
EVIDENCE THAT THE LLCC IS OVERLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
ASCAT DATA. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (WUKONG) WARNINGS (WTPN34
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
(FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests