WPAC: Ampil - Low

[euro6208]

12W AMPIL 180718 1200 19.4N 128.7E WPAC 35 996

Upgrades to TS status. JMA agrees...

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (SON-TINH)
WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS 11W IS
NOW LOCATED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN 181059Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS GOOD BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.0 (45
KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND AN ADT CI ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOW TS 11W IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF
OF TONKIN ARE FAVORABLE, RANGING BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS
11W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. TS 11W
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR TAU 6 AND THEN CONTINUE
TO TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE SYSTEM, APPROXIMATELY 500NM
DIAMETER, WITH AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN BOTH THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AND EIR THAT THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
IS BEGINNING TO WRAP OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM,
CLOSER TO THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 181802Z
SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED BANDING ALTHOUGH THE LLCC REMAINS
ELONGATED, THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE,
COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT WITH TWO TUTT CELLS POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT, AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE FUELING EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION. SST (28-29C)
REMAIN FAVORABLE WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE LOW AND
UNFAVORABLE. DUE TO THE ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AND RANGE FROM T1.0 TO T2.0. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED HIGHER AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT
ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING NUMEROUS 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS. TS 12W IS
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND SOUTH OF A
STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER UNTIL TAU 36 AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSITION TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. DUE TO THE
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST, TS AMPIL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER-THAN-
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF 10 KNOTS PER DAY THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD PEAK AT TAU 72 TO 60 KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A 144NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA, WHICH IS
THE MORE LOGICAL TRACK CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE STR. THERE IS, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE AND THE TRACK SPEEDS DURING THIS
TRANSITION. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THROUGH TAU 72.
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN EXTENSIVE AND ROBUST OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE STRONG GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM AND ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 12W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL BY TAU 96 ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CHINA, SOUTH OF SHANGHAI.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND WHILE WEAKENING STEADILY.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 72 WITH A 330NM SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, INDICATING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST (I.E., HIGH UNCERTAINTY) DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
ISSUES AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL LOCATION.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Okinawa and southern islands not getting any brakes this year. It will be interesting to note that typhoons hitting Shanghai and nearby Zhejiang Province are not common. Will be interesting to watch this unfold.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 07182143
SATCON: MSLP = 986 hPa MSW = 47 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 44.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 55 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 260 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 994 hPa 33 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUL182240
CIMSS AMSU: 993 hPa 39 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 07181252
ATMS: 987.5 hPa 43.0 knots Date: 07181718
SSMIS: 978.0 hPa 57.0 knots Date: 07182143
CIRA ATMS: 1001 hPa 27 knots Date: 07181718

[1900hurricane]

This is an ugly, ugly system right now.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/8NROpnP


https://imgur.com/Ut3Y7LK



https://imgur.com/FbHy1Ak


Flooding + surge will be a huge concern with this moisture bomb if the ec verified. A broad cat1 @ landfall maybe.

[Alyono]

kind of wonder if NHC would call this subtropical given how they've used the term this year. This is interacting with an upper trough, somewhat similar to how Alberto did in the Caribbean

[Twisted-core]

Appears on satpic to have decent equatorial outflow.

[Twisted-core]

kind of wonder if NHC would call this subtropical given how they've used the term this year. This is interacting with an upper trough, somewhat similar to how Alberto did in the Caribbean

Partial hit earlier confirms the strongest winds are away from the centre. With the ideal shear conditions ahead
this latent heat system may go full tropical @ some point.

\


https://imgur.com/u6D0AXT
https://imgur.com/ZLyG1wm



Dvorak technique dont handle these systems well. Not expecting much sence with that technique atm.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Track somewhat similar to STS Trami in 2013. This may be tracking further north, but the similarities are noticeable.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE SYSTEM, APPROXIMATELY 500NM DIAMETER, WITH AN
EXTENSIVE BAND OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF A BROAD,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 190451Z
AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE PROVIDES EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING; HOWEVER, THE LLCC REMAINS ELONGATED
(APPROXIMATELY 100-110NM IN DIAMETER FROM SW TO NE). CONSEQUENTLY,
THERE IS STILL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE, COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT WITH
TWO TUTT CELLS POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HINDERING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE FUELING EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION. SST VALUES
(27-28C) REMAIN FAVORABLE WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE LOW
AND UNFAVORABLE. DUE TO THE ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AND RANGE FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35
KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ABOVE THE HIGHER ESTIMATE OF
35 KNOTS BASED ON PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A 190123Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING A BROAD AREA OF 35 KNOTS WITH A SMALL
SWATH OF 40 KNOT BARBS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. TS 12W IS LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND SOUTH OF A STRONG
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER UNTIL TAU 18 AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR. DUE TO THE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST, TS AMPIL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
SLOWER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF 10 KNOTS PER DAY THROUGH TAU 48,
LEADING TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS AT TAU 48. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF
WHICH REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER WELL TO THE NORTH, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 95NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
48. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK OVER AND TO THE SOUTH
OF OKINAWA, WHICH IS A LOGICAL TRACK CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE STR. THERE IS, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
SPEEDS AS TS 12W TRANSITIONS NORTHWESTWARD; THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE THROUGH TAU 72. SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
EXTENSIVE AND ROBUST OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE STRONG
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 12W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 72 ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CHINA, SOUTH OF
SHANGHAI. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND WHILE WEAKENING
STEADILY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER LANDFALL AT TAU
72. OVERALL, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST (I.E.
HIGH UNCERTAINTY) DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
LOCATION.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 190948
TCSWNP

A. 12W (AMPIL)

B. 19/0830Z

C. 21.3N

D. 131.6E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DT
OF 2.5 IS BASED ON 0.5 CURVED BANDING IN VIS. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS
2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

TPPN13 PGTW 190920

A. TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL)

B. 19/0850Z

C. 21.24N

D. 131.43E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT YIELD 1.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/0451Z 20.13N 130.62E AMS2
19/0723Z 20.72N 131.12E MMHS


LOWE

[euro6208]

One good thing about this scenario is that it will be passing over the cold wake from Maria.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like it for the most part has overwhelmed the TUTT now.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (AMPIL)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (AMPIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 192137Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE,
COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT WITH TWO TUTT CELLS POSITIONED OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST QUADRANTS. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAS ALLOWED
DEEP CONVECTION TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LLCC. SST VALUES (27-28C)
REMAIN FAVORABLE WHILE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE LOW AND
UNFAVORABLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED
ABOVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) BASED ON THE
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TS 12W IS LOCATED WEST OF
AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND SOUTH OF A
STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST, TS AMPIL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER-THAN-
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF 10 KNOTS PER DAY THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD PEAK AT TAU 24 TO 60 KNOTS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 80NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24. THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
OKINAWA. AFTER TAU 36, TS 12W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CHINA,
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN EXTENSIVE
AND ROBUST OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE STRONG GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND WHILE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. OVERALL, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK (I.E., LOW UNCERTAINTY), WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/ThBB25I
Prolly already equivalent to a cat1.

[Alyono]

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/s ... oord.y=170

SCATSAT not showing anything higher than 45 kts

[mrbagyo]

Anemic